David,

I hate to sound like a broken record but here is my way of catching these stocks. If you look at your chart and see the first test of the lows and a failure to make a new low would be the latter part of Aug with the previous low being the first of Aug. Also notice that volume has picked up since that failed test because that is where the smart money enters. It is very difficult to detect this with indicators but is never missed with the good old eyeball.

Realitycheck is correct. This stock was not missed it showed up on my scans a while back and  myself and I believe a couple others commented that we made some good profits from this one. Early warning volume indicator set-ups is how I found it.

I do not know what funnybunny is talking about. The Volume is just fine for this stock and it has it has good institutional support. I have not seen any stocks that show this type of pattern fail. I also agree with Realitycheck that this is a perfect momentum stock and very rare in this Market condition. lets hope that the momentum continues as I still have some share in this one.

David please share all the stock that you can with us, so that we can all participate in there analysis.

Thanks Apsll..

I'm not so sure that "catching" these is the issue so much as "exiting".  Now, I must say that I would not buy this stock for moral reasons but I realize the point of this thread is tech analysis so I'll stick to that.  

On the short term, the only way to evaluate this is that hindsight is 20/20.  But there are some definite indications that this was going to go (although no one but God in heaven would have known how high).  

First of all, Jan 2005 this broke above its very long term downtrend.  And ever since late 2004 TSV26 and its BB13 had been spent some significant time above the 0 line.  

By the time you get to Aug 2005, TSV26/BB13 was almost always above the 0 line.  At that point, you pretty much know it's a stock you should add to your list of "Regulars".  I've discussed this before as a way to make "regular money" on some stocks that just keep sideways trending.  Why not take advantage of these?  After all, it's good, regular money you can add to your 2, 3 or 5 baggers you hit upon.  

Once a stock like this starts heating up, it's always good to get a wide angle view and see where you are in the bigger scheme of things.  The chart below shows, on a weekly scale that Jan 2005 was a pretty clear breakout from a long term trend.  Always a really good sign that the probabilities (another factor I've discussed before) are in your favor.  Now decision making becomes much easier because you've seen the macro view, not just the micro.  



Early April 2006 confirms the breakout, then you really know it's a good time to be in this stock.  From there, any hot signals are just a darn good reason to go for it.  Establish a support trendline as quickly as possible and keep updating it regularly.  Trade off the bounces or just stay in as long as the stock doesn't violate that supporting trendline.  

Let the profits run or mulitply them by putting in the extra time to put your money into one of your other regulars that is going up while the first one is going back down to its support, then flip flop the money when the "regulars" swap directions.  

Again, I think the issue is that too many of us exit too soon.  This stock was mentioned weeks ago.  Had it been managed correctly, no one in should have missed this entire move. 

By the way, there were some indications that this stock was getting hotter and hotter.  Looking back over the timeline, I had any number of confirmed buy signals (which, indeed, would have lead to good short term profits).  But those signals got better and better just before the big breakout; first a "W" pattern with the 2nd leg below the first, then a "W" pattern with the 2nd leg higher than the first on good volume and all the trimmings.  

Just my thoughts, hope it helps.  I know most of the refined traders either don't need this info or may take a different tack; I write this mostly for the newer traders that need some additional insights.  

Here's to a very prosperous New Year, let's make it happen together. 

A view with my template.  I have some petterns i'm still tinkering with that I think will have given other signals... 'and there are the obvious "W" and breakout patterns mentioned above.  Also your Entry "2" is a classic "C" entry point acccording to the breakout methodologies Stan Weinstein teaches.... this according to him is the lowest risk entry point... BUT prior points shouldn't be turned down becasue often the "C" entry is never given so it should be a place for a 2nd purchase.  The key ingredients are teh high volume breakout and the low volume pullback to the breakout range.

My view:

It's for SSRX ... try a Cut & Paste on the quote below and see if that doesn't work better ...

This crazy board does crazy things sontimes ... in this case ... it truncated the hyperlink ...

David - my scans would have come up with this stock........except for volume.  There seems to be a difference of opinion here of minimum volume requirements.  Funnymoney indicated this stock has low volume, apsil indicated the volume was fine. 

As I initially said, my scans would have picked up this stock on 8/27, 10,28, 10/10, and 11/26 - 11/28....except the 50 sma of volume was below my scan settings.  The 50 sma of volume on those dates ran between 65,900 and 133,900 shares/day.  I limit my stock selections to a market rank >= 50 which equates to roughly 150,000 shares/day.

You have defintely given me something to reconsider here, namely minimum volume values.  Out of curiosity, what volume criteria do you guy generally use for you stock and ETF scans?

Thx,
survivor

Good question David, I like to use OBV as a measuring tool that tells me who has the stronger controll of stock price, the Bears or the Bulls. I use it in most of my volume based templates. The more green volume bars there are the higher OBV goes and the more red volume bars there are then the lower OBV goes.

I have heard arguments on this forum for its use and against. I would never trade soley on the condition of any one indicator, rather I use them all to help tell me the story of what is going on with the price trend, volume vs price, pattern development, Market condition, accumulation vs distribution.

David if you have the time you have been making refrence to a trimed univers of stocks. When you have that criteria set in stone could you please share it with me, I would love to test this univers of stocks out on my Templates and see what we can come up with.

Thanks, Apsll..

Thanks for your thoughts David John Hall and Apsil............actually my volume question was meant to be directed at everyone on this thread, not just David.....so I appreciate your input Apsil.

Half of my scans are basicallly momentum scans whereby two of the scan criteria are % change 1 yr (Rank >90) and % change 6 mo (Rank > 90).  in addition, I have been using the volume criteria advocated by William O'Neal, that being average daily volume greater than several hundred thousand shares.

However, applying O'Neal's guidelines to stocks and especially ETFs just eliminates way too many good ones so I've been messing around with different volume settings.  

I guess the bottom line is I don't want to get myself into positions that are too thinly traded.  It just seems that buying 500 or more shares of an ETF trading <40,000 shares per day may not be a good idea, but I haven't figured out how to quantify that into its affect on my buy limit price or sell stop price.

Any thoughts from any of you guys is greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
survivor

Lets put it this way David I never should have exited this stock -

http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=16750

But now back to recent events. My currently reliable Template tells me that early October this year would have been a good time to enter this one. It would have poped up on one or two of my various Templates at some point (clearly I missed it).

Wow Apsll, I think I have found my new momentum trading system -- it's YOU.  :)  Seems like you have caught many of these.  Fantastic work.  let me know when you've finished writing that book.  

Is there a post where you have have your template settings defined? 

pkbldr,

i have to agree with you and thanks for your honesty -- when I roll the chart back it's hard for me to find a definitive spot where i can say YES, that is where i would be a buyer.  They look pretty terrifying at the best entry points.  But also...what seperates the winners from the multitude of others?  At this point I cannot tell.  If you're entering on the breakout it looks like a wild scary ride.  If you're entering on the pullback you have to be sure it won't crash and burn.    

Realitycheck has a point when he talks about general market direction.  Fusing this with Oneil who says watch for the market turn around after a correction, then look for the strongest stocks during that period.  Those will be the leaders.

Years ago when i began surfing, the big waves, which were always the best ones, were terrifying to enter.  I simply could see no way to do it.  A few more experienced friends were having the rides of their lives on waves I had no hope of catching.  What I soon discovered is that you have to simply go for it and wipe out a few times before you get the nerve and the confidance to trust your instincts.  Without the things I learned during those wipeouts my nerves would never have been steady enough to catch those big waves...which i did eventually learn to do.

I am certain that trading these monster stocks is a lot like that.  

Here's to catching the big waves of 2008!

David John Hall

David,


Could you tell me who you print the charts on here? I have tried many times but were unsuccessful.  I wanted to show charts also, but I am not familiar with the entire procedure. Do I need a certain software to post charts?

Thanks in advance.

hi iihart52 (not sure if those are i's or j's),

I'm not at home at the moment so i can't offer any visuals on how to do this so hopefully I can walk you through:

you will first need to open a free account at an image hosting website.  i use photobucket.com

To capture your telechart screen you can either purchase a screen capture tool (I use hyper snap) or you can ctrl+alt+prt scr on your keyboard.

Once you have done this you cdan open microsoft paint and edit-paste it into the program.  From there you can annotate it and save it.

Top upload it into photobucket, go to the website.  They have a "browse" feature that will allow you to find and select the file.

once you have it selected, hit the upload button and your file is stored on their server.  Highlight the "direct link" line under the chart and, at the worden post area click the icon that looks like a picture.  It has mountains and a sun.  you can then left click and paste and hit okay.  the image should come up.

It's hard for me to explain this without images, so if it doesn't work, let me know and I'll do a post that shows how to do it step by step.