New version 17 available now


Download software Tutorial videos
Subscription & data-feed pricing Class schedule


New account application Trading resources
Margin rates Stock & option commissions

Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. Search | Active Topics |

Profile: scottnlena
About
User Name: scottnlena
Groups: Gold User, Member, TeleChart
Rank: Registered User
Real Name:
Location
Occupation:
Interests:
Gender: Unsure
Statistics
Joined: Monday, April 18, 2005
Last Visit: Saturday, July 09, 2011 5:27:18 PM
Number of Posts: 4,090
[1.43% of all post / 0.89 posts per day]
Avatar
Last 10 Posts
Topic: Econometrics student needs to find data!
Posted: Thursday, April 21, 2011 11:12:34 PM
I found everything I need guys thanks.  Found west texas crude and a LONG series of consistent prices.  It's ok if it's a general proxy for oil.  I'm not looking at that finite a relationship.  Some accuracy will be lost but it will still be in there.  The issue now is that I need to integrate quarterly GDP data with monthly data on everything else.  I'd like to do a cubic spline but I haven't seen a clear description of how it's done with out fancy software.  I think it's impractical in excel as a 4 yer segment requires a 12X12 linear program to convert quarterly data to monthly data so I'll likley use a simpler if less accurate method of evenly distributing the gains between months.  The graph will look a little stepwise  but I'm ok with that.
Topic: Econometrics student needs to find data!
Posted: Sunday, April 17, 2011 2:25:04 AM
Oh wait, it could be that they aren't that old.  DARN!
Topic: Econometrics student needs to find data!
Posted: Sunday, April 17, 2011 2:23:13 AM
Executive decision:
I'll use the ETF but I only have freestock charts.com right now which
1. won't export values like TC 2000 will and 
2. dosen't go back far enough.

I need monthly close from 2006 to current please.  Ticker USO, or OIL will do fine.
Topic: Econometrics student needs to find data!
Posted: Sunday, April 17, 2011 2:06:42 AM
Thanks guys.  It will be boiled down for the mentally challenged by the mentally challenged.  Yea I found the gold "london fix".  but the issue more convoluded for for Oil.  Ultimately I need to make a choice between LS Crude or Brent Crude (which included LSC as I understand).  I'm dissapointed to hear that ETF's aren't good for oil.  whay would that be?  USO could be something.  My desire was to avoid keying it in point by point.  So monthly charts are serriously not on the fun scale and error possibilities go up.  Next would be a data list that blocks copy and paste.

I don't know that the paper will be that great a tool for trading.  But variants may be.  I'm going to look at derived demand functions for gold as an investment in the face of:

Stock prices
Oil
Govt Debt.
Inflation 
GDP growth rates
Ballance of trade
unemployment

I expect some variable to be insignificant, and I'll need to make interaction terms and check for homoskedasticity, running "White" tests, preditiction intervals hypothesis tests of significance.  Avg Homework is 14-19 pages, this is the final paper so It should be at least that long I'm guessing.  Unless I get zero statistical significance between any of the variables, which is OK.

Hope all are doing well.  Thanks again!
Oh if someone could post SPY prices, monthly close,  Jan 2006 to current from the TC export function that would be wonderful!  Or Sp-500. 
Topic: Econometrics student needs to find data!
Posted: Saturday, April 02, 2011 11:42:51 AM
Hello guys!

I'm looking for monthly averages or closing pricesfor oil, light sweet, dosen't realy matter but i need reliable data on the prices.  

Gold would also be nice but I do have a source for the "london fix" monthly averages.  I'm not certain where to find what I'm looking for.  I've found several private sites but I'd prefer a govt. site or some similar credible site for that.

I'm working on my Sr. Paper and compiling a multiple regression analysis of connection between gold prices and several other economic variables.

I may also need monthly closes for the SP-500 for some time period.  I know TC-2000 is a great source for this.  That can be exported rith into excel.

Thanks for any help.  Hope all here are donig well.
Topic: first and second derivitive tests?
Posted: Friday, November 27, 2009 8:37:08 PM
Actually, mathematically speaking a derivitive is the reate of change of a function.  I make no claims to fame in calculus.  I'm getting clobbered to be honest.

4 semesters is no where near whare I want to take calculus.  Mostly becasue I think that there is no way to tell the future no matter how intricate the equation is.  I'm not gong into physics or engeeneering in which I need to calculate the area and surface area of complex vessels or the possible fill rate as a function of shape and surface area..  No thanks.

This first and 2nd derivitive stuff is about as basic as it gets in Calculus.  An in terms of trading and investing I'd be suprised if any of it is used.  Despite all the finance based questions in my homeworks.  More of it comes to use where it overlaps with probability theory.  the rest of calculus I see as a prime tool for building rockes and planning satelite orbits.  I don't want to be anywhere near my rocket when it's launched and my satelite is likely to knock out cellphone service for 2/3 of all americans.

I just got to thinking about the concepts of 1st and 2nd derivitive as a rate of change and a rato of change of a rate of change and realized that it could be a great tool for screening trading candidates.  There will be other ways to do the same thing but that is really succinct.

Say you have a function which plots as a stock line chart.  The first derivitive will be an equation for the slope at any given point (fill in X).  Positive slope obviously means climbing stock.  2nd derivitive will show if it's accelerating or decelerating based on a positive or negative value)

Interestingly the first derivitive will cross the x axis when the original function has a slope of zero.  Where the frist derivitive takes on a slop of zero the original function has stopped accelerating.  These are critical and inflection points.  a 2nd derivitive inflection point shows the point where the concavity of the original function begins to change.  So if the stock is falling but begins to slow it's decent then it will trigger a concavity chage.  the trend is still down but it's begining to slow.  Waiting till the first derivitive turns positive then means that the trend is changing (or has changed) and the slope is up and accelerating.  

that is the theory, I have no idea how well it works and that is not making any attempt to predict anything.  Pluss we all know that other factors affect prices beyond prices.  We only see what is happening and what has happened.  The next bar is a wild card.

I've been so bussy I haven't had allot of time to tinker with this stuff and I zero market expolsure right now.  so what ever happened to APSLL, David John Hall, Diceman and the rest of the gang?
Topic: first and second derivitive tests?
Posted: Thursday, November 26, 2009 3:19:55 PM
Drigger and all.

Family is fine, Daughter growing like a weed.  Little smarty pants.  Sings the alphabet at 2, spells 5 words and completes puzzels for 3-4 year olds.

Driger, The first derivitive is the slope of the origiinal function at a point or the equation that gives the slope at that point.  The 2nd derivitive boils down to positive or negative.  This gives us concavity.  Take a bowl and look at it.  Mathematically speaking it's concave up.  Now turn the bowl upside down on the table.  That is called concave down.  Imagine that as a section of a stock chart.  I'd rather be riding the the inside concave up slop than the outside (upsidedown) concave down slope.

Both have a positive slope (greater than 0 first derivitive) but the concave down example will have a negative value for the upside down bowl and a positive value for the bowl in the right side up position.  So BOTH must be positive ... or negative togeather.  This would be a pair of conditions that will be true in the begining of a parobolic or exponential graph of price.

forgive spelling.  Late for a T-day party.
Topic: first and second derivitive tests?
Posted: Wednesday, November 18, 2009 1:55:28 AM
Is it possible to write code that will filter for stocks that pass a first and second derivitive test on say a 10 day time frame ?
Topic: contradictory "Or" statements.
Posted: Wednesday, February 18, 2009 12:20:20 AM
If you put two PCF's that have contradictory information will they be treated the sam in a scan.

Like If I had a PCF that said C< 50 EMA OR 50 EMA < 200 EMA 

will that let in to a scan issues that are greater than the fifty EMA only if the 50 is less than the 200?
Topic: Underperforming a coin flip
Posted: Tuesday, February 17, 2009 3:03:47 PM
QUOTE (dp112)

TSV,MACD,STOC...

what, where, how those indicator base on what ? 
indicator just a indicator they wont tell me anything before the PRICE (action) take place
i mean if u take a look at RSI, TSV they will look kindda same b/c they are base on PRICE ACTION. so that mean the result will look the same.

Dont short, the economic is bad already. use ur long strategy buddy



I'm aware of that BUT they are 1. good searching tools and 2.  there are IMO certain tendancies for prices to continue higher under certain conditions .. generaly speaking so I've used them in the past to good effect. 3 they can help see patterns in volume that may be positive or negative and over looked inthe bigger pictuer.

I never bought or sold indicators.. 

Economy will fix it's self I wan't to make money.. One person shorting or not shorting isn't going have an effect.  Ultimately none of us in this forum have enough muscle to have a noticalbe effect on a given stock over the short term.  The moves are happening you can participate or not or give away money.