Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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To start this is just a set of a few observation, which in turn it may have a different meaning to diferent folks. I will state my views - not that those are the only ones of course.
I like to start with the daily chart (1st chart) with clearly shows the increase distributions in the market since mid October, the acceleration of the downtrend, and the clear cut of the 200MA.
On the 3 day frame chart (2nd chart) you will appreciate the support levels already broken as well as the one standing underneath. Also the clear broken support trend which is no longer valid and that had not be broken at least since last yr.
The market is currently corrected about 10%. A 20% market by arriving to the 11360 level will mark a clear beginning of a bear. Although if you wait until then to position yourself you may be at a disadvantage.
I am excited about the begining of a new bear as the last bear was by far my most profitable time in my trading career. It seems they drop three time faster than they go up, which translate into fatter and faster profits.
On the 60 day chart (3rd chart) there is a very interesting observation. Although you must understad that the candle (price) I am about to talk hasn't finished formatting just yet. It will be finished on Dec 15, and then you can take a pick again and make up your own conclusions.
With that in mind observe the last candle of the 60 day chart and look that there hasn't been a candle of that dimenssions since the last bear, and also notice the size of the hammer candle previous to it (and the technical implications of the hammer)..
As fundamentals have not changed much on the landscape, I suppose that it helps the case for what I think is the meaning of this - of very bearish characteristics.
Also notice the stochastics bearish crossing on the 60 day. Crossing which has not happened for a long time - it is happening now. If that 60 day stochs falls below the 80 level I am almost certaing that the foundation for something very ugly will be in the works
I hope this helps to some of you.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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But don't you think that we are over due for a bounce at least ? ? I mean even falling markets don't go STRAIGHT down to the bottom .. . . . . I'd be cautious of going short RIGHT HERE... but would plan on it soon.... But then again I'm loosing hand over fist again. .. so maybee I need to rethink my thinking.
I actually saw this coming but underestimated it.
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=26354
At this point I keep poking my head above ground looking for the bounce and taking a nice shot between the eyes.
this is my first true bear market to experience and it's mystifying... Price is moving so fast. Today alone I entered two stocks, plus one of Friday, .... at 11:00 I was up a respectable amount.. wen't for a walk and came home to my 2nd biggest loss of the year. From may to current I have cleared $200.00. Wha Hoo!
this technical trading is hardly worth the effort some times.. and others it all falls togheather and the money flows in.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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Sure Scott there will be fluctuations as always.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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here it comes...lets hope it's more than one day.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I have no idea why my charts have been removed, but the idea is still there. The market is headed toward what I was initially concluding, and we are much closer to a bear market. Recession will play along a downtrending market too.
I have commented much before about the economic factors at work signaling just what it is in the works. I personally do not think that this will be a mild recession. If it is, it will be a fake out created by our friends at the Feds, which will do nothing but complicate things, and of course aggravate the real recession when it comes. Lets pray and hope that this is the real thing. The longer is takes to happen the worse it will be.
I should had taken a couple more bags full of money to Europe - It was expensive there. The trip was nice with explendid weather, and lots of beautiful women. I am currently trying to adjust here, we just got back on Wed. Certainly it is good to be home.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Good to have you back Bigblock ...
The problem with your charts is coming from your site apparently ...
If you right click on the "X" ... goto properties ... and c&p the link into a browser window ... it still shows up not found ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Just wanted to give you a glimpse of the finished candle that I originally mentioned on this post regarding the very long time frame (3month).
The candle did finish forming, and the technical consequenses of this can be detrimental, not to mention the accompaning economics fundamentals that are reflected here.
I hope it is clear that shorts represent the easiest path, and that you will invest your energy in doing just so.
This is just the beginning, you are not late to the party as of now. You are just confirmed.
Take care
BOTH charts below display the nasty blow (last long red candle formed), and stochastics confirming the cycle that is in progress. Remember each of those candles are 3 months, and the depth of the last formed candle hasn't been spotted since the last bear.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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So ... what is your thinking Bigblock ...
About the prospects for the market and the economy ... in depth and breadth ?
I think we'd both agree that this is the product of a prolonged period of cheap, easy money ...
And trying to solve it with lower interest rates and liquidity injections is akin to trying to put out a fire with a hose from a gasoline tanker ...
If Bigblock was "King" .... is there any way to fix this ?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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.... But then again I'm loosing hand over fist again. .. so maybee I need to rethink my thinking
Scott, You asked me for the machanics of my bounce method, and I shared them with you. Yet you are losing money hand over fist while I am making money hand over fist. Instead of focussing on the markets (we know that they are going down), try scaning for individual stock opportunities. Have the live ticker going and do not walk away from it. If you cannot do that then do not trade that day. Watch your techni-trader scans and sort them with my bounce method. you will find stocks like the charts below..
Good luck.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Apsll. Check the date when I wrote that.... A few things happened. 1) I underestimated the magnitude of the correction coming reasoning that we had just had one so I viewed the down days as buying oportunities. 2) as this down trend becomes more aparent my favorite scans are producing less quality.. it's a kinds of slow but logical process.
My day is to interupted to do that sort of trading... wish it weren't. I actually caught the last bounce fairly well .. thought ther would be a bit more but I'm shoting 60% right now and surpased my next imediate target. Started the new year off with a bang.
At the time I had a loosing streak.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2008
Posts: 1
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QUOTE (Apsll)
Scott, You asked me for the machanics of my bounce method, and I shared them with you. Yet you are losing money hand over fist while I am making money hand over fist.
Hmmmmmmmm. Me thinks someone spends an aweful lot of time pumping oneself up. Hmmmmmmmmm.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott, you are correct. I did not check the date of that post. Sorry 
Hmmmmmmmm. Me thinks someone spends an aweful lot of time pumping oneself up. Hmmmmmmmmm.
James you appear to be a new and welcome addition to this forum so you might as well know right off that I am a blow-hard. I speak my mind and have had run-ins with 80% of the Veteran traders on this forum. I am very cocky and sometimes pompus. I have a job that I am alone most of the day and can spend it trading and researching stocks. there are those here that hate me and those that love me. My many posts and threads are to help the folks that wish to benefit from my experience and knowledge. I am a very successfull trader and wich ever side you decide to view me from is ok by me, my skin is as thick as boot leather I am not easily offended.
I just hope that your intentions to participate on this forum will be of a constructive nature and not just to heckle. Again welcome and good luck..
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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By the way james, leave the MMMMMM's to Yoda. And since you are not a gold or platinum member, and just signed on today, I can only conclude that you are a current or past member that does not belong to my fan club...
There is no need to lurk in the shadows just be a man or woman and speak your mind un-anonymously..
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Lets not start here another pissing contest please.
I know everyone is free to post anything they want - at least that is the way I see it BUT...
Just wondering - this topic is about market analysis - Why is your post here Aosll? How is it related to the market analysis?
Whatever you have going with scott - please take it to its own post, unless it is related to market analysis.
Thank yoiu.
Reality, indeed if I had a clear solution to this economics issues I would be king.
The problem witth this economic issues is that there are plenty of variables changing constantly, which in turns makes very difficult for fixed plans.
I understand now the why the dollar has been dropping the way it has been, and conclude that it will continue to do so for the sake of the US economy.
The dollar devaluation is providing a softer landing as the economy is tanking. Increase deterioration will require lower dollar to keep pumping exports and tourism. Eventually foreign capital will find its way into our markets due to the currency discount, and that may also help our markets.
Housing and banking will repair themselve eventually as population growth continues and houses prices hits a botton. The over inventory existing now will be sold eventually. Notice how apartments buildings have been growing - perhaps creating a delay for housing recovery.
The need for new housing to cover population growth will get builders and housing going in time.
And yes manufacturing will need to refocus itself. A strong manufacturing economy is a requirement for profitability and progress.
I am not sure how the manufacturing may evolve. Autos surely are not moving fast enough in their energy saving models. The big 3 are still pumping SUVs, and I haven't seen any advertisement for real energy efficient cars.
Once people start really hurting as in happened in 1929, and 1970's per example - comodities and energy will reset themselve.
It has always play out more or less on this fashion. The time it will take for this to reset is unknown to me. The recession may be rather very long and mild changing the lanscape as we have seen it before.
I have been commenting for a long time about the interest rates manipulation and the outrage printing of M3. I think the feds should stop such a practice and let the real economy cycle on its own.
We all would like a perpetual strong economy, but that is a cycle misconception. Fluctuations are a must.
I really think that the solution to this economic cycle is to let it play on its own, that will of course hurt a lot of folks. If we keep prolonging the unevitable more folks will hurt at the end. I am sure a case for the lattest is in the works and this is going to unwind into an ugly recession that you will not even feel it coming. Jus as a good poison.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
I have been commenting for a long time about the interest rates manipulation and the outrage printing of M3. I think the feds should stop such a practice and let the real economy cycle on its own.
BigBlock,
I was alarmed that the Fed quick publishing M3. That was a big indicator to me that something very wrong was occuring in the Fed. I don't quite understad what you are stating in your reference to the M3, would you please elaborate. Thanks for your comments.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Bigblock, I see that your trip abroad did not mellow you. You have quoted yourself at times to stray off the subject matter. One can respond to any post within a given thread. I was responding to Scotts post (within this thread) and it did pertain to Market analysis.
You have tainted more threads than one can count so take a chill pill, I do not need your permission to give my opinions. My analysis of this market is that it is going down untill it stops going down. And there are ways to trade long in a bear market. If I want to hear point counter point on why the dollar is this or that and what about the Fed, then I can watch it all on TV or read it here. I choose to analyze the markets through my own way and will insert my Ideas into any thread that I choose.
Good day to you sir. and welcome back..
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (BigBlock) The dollar devaluation is providing a softer landing as the economy is tanking. Increase deterioration will require lower dollar to keep pumping exports and tourism. Eventually foreign capital will find its way into our markets due to the currency discount, and that may also help our markets.
Housing and banking will repair themselve eventually as population growth continues and houses prices hits a botton. The over inventory existing now will be sold eventually. Notice how apartments buildings have been growing - perhaps creating a delay for housing recovery.
The need for new housing to cover population growth will get builders and housing going in time.
And yes manufacturing will need to refocus itself. A strong manufacturing economy is a requirement for profitability and progress.
I am not sure how the manufacturing may evolve. Autos surely are not moving fast enough in their energy saving models. The big 3 are still pumping SUVs, and I haven't seen any advertisement for real energy efficient cars.
Once people start really hurting as in happened in 1929, and 1970's per example - comodities and energy will reset themselve.
It has always play out more or less on this fashion. The time it will take for this to reset is unknown to me. The recession may be rather very long and mild changing the lanscape as we have seen it before.
I have been commenting for a long time about the interest rates manipulation and the outrage printing of M3. I think the feds should stop such a practice and let the real economy cycle on its own.
We all would like a perpetual strong economy, but that is a cycle misconception. Fluctuations are a must.
I really think that the solution to this economic cycle is to let it play on its own, that will of course hurt a lot of folks. If we keep prolonging the unevitable more folks will hurt at the end. I am sure a case for the lattest is in the works and this is going to unwind into an ugly recession that you will not even feel it coming. Jus as a good poison.
Take care.
I see that, once again, we agree on many of the macroeconomic issues in play here ...
The perpetual lowering of interest rates ... and resulting devaluation of the dollar may not be providing a soft landing, so to speak, so much as a smoother transition ...
After all ... what we're really talking about here is "standard of living" ... and if you could pick one element by which to judge a country's prospects for a high (or low) standard of living ... I believe that the strength (or weakness) of their currecncy is the most important ...
And Yes ... market manipulation only prolongs the inevitable ... and amplifies it's effects ...
We must work through this on our own ... we must let the markets work through this on their own ...
Things do change ... the Big 3 ... are now the "Domestic 3" ... and one has to question to what extent even that is accurate ....
Good Luck ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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Apsll I want to study your bounce method, where can I find it. AB
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I just like to mentioned that per example take the SP500 and besides the 200 MA being crashed more important is that the primary trend has been broken.
Also observe the Dow Transports for those of you following Dow theory.
Those 2 factors along with the Dow Transports are strongly supportive of the beginning of a strong bear.
Take care.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Lets see if by a cooperative method we can help each other here. I am not sure or not if you agree with me on the coming market correction as well as the economic recession.
Lets say you do. So some questions should arise about how to max profit from this.
Per example from the top down:
What sectors are most likely to feel this correction from this point on? Remember that per example housing, and construtions are well corrected at this point.
What subsectors will be a better choice to short?
Which stocks within those sectors and subsectors would be a better short choice?
What about ETF's? Index ETF's?
Would anyone have preference for the long side in any case? why?
Should be looking at Ultra Proshares as QID per example?
What other ideas would you have to maximize profits or protec your capital under the expected conditions?
Would the use of options be a wise choice to protec the rather dangerous side of shorts? What would be your take on this?
I think that some brain storming would be benefitial to all. I am not asking this for myself, but for others who are listening, and learning and never ask for one reason or another.
Well I think that is enough to start braining and start some interaction here. Everyone's opinion counts even if it is just a cent you have to contribute. Have fun.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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We need a hookie pipe (Middle Eastern bong with many pipes) so we can all sit around and smoke up and be nice to each other and make the collective wiser and richer......
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) We need a hookie pipe (Middle Eastern bong with many pipes) so we can all sit around and smoke up and be nice to each other and make the collective wiser and richer......
You are very correct ...
Actually ... it's a hookah pipe ...
What we all need to understand is that we are all fisherman ...
We all fish in the same ponds ....
Some of us run around in high speed boats ... some with high speed boats, fish finders and polarized glasses ... trying to drop our line in just in front of the fish ...
Some of us ... try to figure out where the fish are going to be at 3:00 PM ... so we drop our line in there at 2:45 and wait ....
But ... if we are successful ... we all eat fish for dinner ...
And IF we are all successful ...
No one is "wrong" .... just different ....
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (jjame69)
Hmmmmmmmm. Me thinks someone spends an aweful lot of time pumping oneself up. Hmmmmmmmmm.
i'm a little new here, but one thing you come realize about apsll is he/she has strong opinions, and sometimes unique trading methods, but apsll is very generous with his/her time, and does contribute a lot of personal experience, charts, and data to the forum. and most appreciate it.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Can we please concentrate on the topic and leave persons out of it.
Does anyone have further or different analysis on the markets? I am puzzled that noone has presented a counter argument to my analysis.
So you all think that the market is crashing?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Hi Bigblock ...
I don't know that it's "crashing" ... but it sure don't look good ...
The thing about all of this that I have found remarkable ... is just how orderly and methodical it has been ...
I have lived through waterfalls ... I've seen the type of market action that gave birth to the "uptick rule" ...
I've have sat and watched it fall for hours ... with only the rare uptick ... excepting lunch time ...
The psychology has not yet been broken ...
People are still in the "buy the dips" mode ...
They refuse to change their bias to align with the trend ... so instead ... they wait on a bounce ... and trade counter to the trend ...
The late 80s and early 90s seemed a lot different than what I see today ....
Time will tell I suppose ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
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not enough fear, nother 10% on the downside.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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shortable rally possible here.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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I think that the jury is still out on this market. We are only at about a 10% correction level. Question is whether we take out the march and august lows or whether they hold. No question we will be seeing some economic slowdown. How far the market declines because of the slowdown is the question. With the liquidity the fed is pumping in and fed rate cuts the market will remain very confused.
As a trader, I really don't care which way the market goes I'll just play the volatility. As an investor, once we take out the march and august lows, I'll be using any rallies to lighten positions and/or go short. Good luck.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/25/2004
Posts: 79
Location: Illinois
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Just to add my 2 cents, I believe we're going to see a short rally from here then down again either lower lows or retest existing lows. Trying to find individual stocks with this current volatility is very tough, but an index fund might be a better choice (for me anyway) to try and catch a "bounce" from here - then maybe short.
Here is something I noticed today while looking at major indexes:
DJ30 - From Nov low rallied 8% / an 8% rally from this Jan low would = approx 13,500
DJT - From Nov low rallied 13% / a 13% rally from this Jan low would = approx 4,590
NAScomp - From Nov low rallied 7.5% / a 7.5% rally from this Jan low would = approx 2,585
RUS2000 - From Nov low rallied 8% / an 8% rally from this Jan low would = approx 745
What really caught my attention was the fact that the NAScomp left a gap above at 2592.18 and the RUS2000 left a gap above at 744.43 - is it a coincidence that the above mentioned percentages would close these gaps?
I'm not saying that the market will rise from here but, if it does, I'm going to consider those levels to be targets - then resistance.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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I was thinking the market would bounce a bit myself. But I just heard this mornings PPI report and the futures immediately plunged.
It seems one day the market goes up, the next day it goes down. I may end up intra-day trading more than short term trading. That's one of the reasons I posted that inquiry to see how many of you are already doing that using Level 2 or TotalView data in order to enhance your trades.
Could be a very volatile day today.
survivor
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Bigblock: right now the markets look like they are trading in a sideways very volitile trading pattern. This formation, or action has in the past led us into Bear markets or tops and then again it has been veiwed in retrospect as a consolidation or churning pattern, that enevitably continued up. If you are looking for opinions on where we think the markets will go then we can either base them on pure technical analysis which is what I am doing, or we can bring in macroeconomic issues, which I think is really what you are seeking in the way of feed-back.
From a Technical point of veiw I would say that this is a time of indecision and high volitility. I am taking advantage of this by using my Bounce Strategy (Allenbary, since this is Bigblocks thread then you will just have to do a search for Bounce Strategy he does not seem to appreciate any deveations from his intended topic).
Big block I suggest that you should have mde the subject of this thread - macroeconomic issues and how will they impact the markets.
(IMO)
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I must disagree with you Apsll. The market since October hasn't been in any trading range. It is obvious by looking at a chart or the numbers that the market has lost about 10% of its ground.
As I said initially this is a confirmation of the start of a bear - you keep waiting and you will be late.
Confirmation is obviouos in the technicals as well as the fundamentals.
It takes time for the fundamentals to show up in the markets as folks are as sttuborn - Hence most of their losses. I have been pounding on market fundamentals for at least 6 months - most folks have said - Whatevere.
Now take a look at some of the stocks I have shorted for the duration of that time and tell me how it has worked out for me. It seems that this bear is coming out with a bang for me - just as the last one did.
I usually put my money where my mouth is. As I always said there are Bulls, Bears, and Pigs. The market hasn't to be as difficult as portrait - all you have to do is decide if you are a Bull or a Bear. If you pick the wrong role, just accepted and change. If you choose to be a Pig you will always end up on the cutting table.
Stocks I have been shorting since mid-late october: BEAS, LUV, COSY,SIRI,GERN,NGAS,XSMR,F,FDSU,TLAB,DELL,GM,SPIL,SWHC,YHOO,SIFY,AMD,CDG,PMCS,CIEN
I certainly do not need any of your boucing system as you can tell. As for my topic name it is what I wanted to be "Market Analysis" = Simplicity.
The Opinions are for all - not just for me. I probably am in less need than others.
Take care
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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I wish my schlong was as big as some of the egos around this place ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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By the way Aspl - as far as your bouncing system goes. Look below - it seems I would had board the train back in Dec 20 2007. Isn't that before your bouncing system said anything.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Hey reality - sorry to come across this way. I guess Apsll pushes the wrong buttons in my box, and so got it smoking. I am just gaspping for air.
I hope I didn't disturbe you much in the process.
By the way, some of those stocks got lower ground to reach. This is just the beginning.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I assumed that when you started this thread, that you did expect opinions that are not shared by you. I am a Bull through and through and I will trade this Bear market Long (If indeed we are at the begining of one). I am not stating either way that we are, or are not in a Bear market, so their is no need for argument there. I simply do not short the market or play ETF's
I did not say that you were in need of my bounce strategy. I simply said that I am having success with it at this time. As far as the topic name, my point was and is that market Analysis is a very general term and that the dialog between Scott and I was not off course from the topic.
Finding ways to trade a bear market long does not make me stubborn or a pig. Let a bear market come I will still be trading. Your opinions concerning the technical condition of the Markets do not deter me from my opinion that they are trading in a sideways pattern and have not determined a direction yet. They very well could be starting a Bear market. I just do not find it as obvious as you do at this time....
You analize the markets your way and good luck to you. I am preparing to trade a Bear market should it evolve...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Bigblock I thought you decided last month to act like a normal person (I thought we smoked the peace pipe) I guess you were smoking somthing other than I. First of all I only stated that GNVC appeared on one of my scans I did not say that I was going to trade it.
I notice that you do not identify any of your indicators. Are you trying to push (edited by Moderator) on us again watch out you might get banned again, but I am sure that you would farret your way back in some how. You always do...
It appears to be very easy to push your buttons, you are the most juvenile trader I have come across in all my years. Does not your Website have a stock forum for you to haunt why do you have to pick this one???
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Registered User
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