Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I still need to review the "bonanza bottom" but as I recal it's basically looking for volume spikes and anomalies in bottoming formations over time. Some of the examples I listed below may not be candidates...some may. Let me know. All of them have interesting volume and or other indicator patterns to me.
BBI stands out the most to me so far. Though I suspect this to be a short term bottom than most bonanza bottoms. I have to wonder if any downward price action from here should be viewed as an oportunity to get in and hitch a ride to $7.00 +?
Others may be
FLO
DSCM
MAIL
ONCW
I'd love to find I think five nice healthy bottoms for an intermediate hold this coming cycle (if it comes) and focus most of my short term trading on setups that resemble TGI around Late August when it came up on my simple approach scan. Not that it MUST have the TSV/MS moneystreammove at the same time but I think it helps and at least helps eleminate supurflous possibilities. The look of the moving averages here is ideal to my aproach. The HNC concept over slightly longer term moving averages and the position of the 20ma in relation to the 50 ma are ideal to the highest probabilities in my simple aproach.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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March was also an ideal entry for TGI. Giving a double signal on 4/2 and holding a nice trend/ intermediate term FAN there after.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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found MPEL tonights as well. Ithink this may be a bonanza bottom.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott, Good examples of a Bonanza Bottom are -
ECIL
PWAV
CFW
DSCM, MAIL, and BBI look good but keep in mind that the stock must be in a clear bottom formation and looking to break-out.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/14/2007
Posts: 38
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BBI?? Where do you see the future of BBI?
Netflix his bigger competitor already have DVD download on demand and with plans from only $4.99 per month.
How is BBI going to beat that? Even if BBI gets is download on demand service going soon - how is it going to compete with those prices.
Remember Netflix has no real estate to maintain. I can certainly see BBI much lower, just like MOVI is.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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Big Block, Fundamentals are rarely metioned on this forum. You might start a new trend.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Where do you see the future of BBI?
Asking Questions again bigblock?
Laphill is correct, Most on this forum are short term Technical traders (you should be able to appreciate that, being the guru of day trading that you are).
Technically speaking one could have already made a pretty penny seeing this beautiful pattern. (looks like a good cup forming here to me).
Seeing that June, July and August had the same lows you could have bought when the 20 day sma crossed over the 50 day sma. And still be holding as it looks like a staircase pattern is building the final section of the cup formation. (I think that price is going to fill the gap from May before the handle). Or you could have sold the last couple of days for a 20% gain.
Who cares if Netflix does better than Block Buster, Short term technical traders do not care about such trivial things.
(IMO)
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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the chart picture of BBI looks beter than NFLX to me.
I admit that NFLX may do better in the longer run... but BBI looks like it is turning NOW. I don't know fundamentally what is going on with any of them. I know MOVI is having some serious problems... but that could be a management thing. I know our local location has a pathetic collection. BBI is a bigger name AND there is a certain convienence to having the realestate. One can stop by on the way home from work on a whim and brouse for a movie. With NFLX you need a plan and a waiting list... I don't generally care to take time and plan my movie viewing. Also BBI is great at keeping the shelves filled with the "pulp" that entertaines the largest cross sections of the population. NFLX is GREAT if you like foreign, old or obscure films that BBI won't take time to carry. I don't see BBI going the way of the dodo any time soon.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/14/2007
Posts: 38
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The commentary was directed to those with a longer term of holding. True to my trading style it would not matter. I did trade BBI short a few weeks ago and made some good profits all the way down to the 4.9 area. It gets slow sometimes. The short operation was clear on a tip, and yes I holded that one for more than a day. Wonder what the MM was wondering as I took him down to his knees.
Anyways, my trading style doesn't have to do anything with my commentaries here. I well know that most folks around here are not daytraders and that they hold for the swing or longer.
I was just trying to help. I find NLFX a better trade from any angle, the rest is up to you.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I dunno, BBI still looks like a better set up to me and improving.. with this pullback.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (scottnlena) I dunno, BBI still looks like a better set up to me and improving.. with this pullback.
I know I'm a long was from being the brightest bulb in the pack ....
But speaking purely technically of BBI ...
It seems that it has a pretty strong upper trendline ... stretching all the way back to 2001 ... that has been tested and has held more times than I've got hairs on my butt ....
Right now ... that tendline is at about $5.80 ....
Wouldn't you need a DECISIVE break (price and volume) of that trendline to make this a prudent trading canidate ... for anything more than just a few pennies ?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
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I see what you mean... and I hadn't seen that trend line.. I was focused on a series of three lows ascending from January FWD. Maybee i've had stardust thrown in my eyes over all the BOP and Volume.
But volume seems to be picking up to help us get to the $5.90 area.... a tight stop and the R/R becomes worth it possibly? for a quicker trade. My thinking is that If I come acros a trade that may not be a potential double or triple BUT looks much more certain over a short period of time..why not take it? how many of the ones that seem to have huge points to gain .... don't? And how many do yo uskip because of resistance only to trip over the chart later sitting at a nice proffitable area? I've seen some "resistances" blown through like tissue paper and others that you wouldn't think that great reverse the stock.
and if we get to $6.70 then i'd say that trend line could be suport.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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Bigblock makes some good points some times when he isn’t so busy castigating and casting aspersions at us folks who like the lower priced stocks and throwing criticisms with no backing for the reason for the criticism. I must say that he has been getting better recently.
For instance, he is correct that BBI has a pretty strong resistance area near 5.70. However, since 09/01 it has been trading in the range from 5.20 to 5.70. It seems to me that it would make sense to swing it trade it in this range (picking up six or seven percent with the swing). Then, if it broke above about 5,80 with good volume ride it to the 6.15 to 6.20 level or possibly to the 6.56 or 6.95 level.
The swings between 5.20 to 5.60 would be short term (a few days). After the breakout the time frame would probably be weeks to, possibly, months.
I may be all wet with this logic, but I think I will play it this way.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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With so many real [profitable] companies going on sale, when we come out of this correction why spend time searching out "cats and dogs"?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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it's all about the chart... One it's low priced coming out of a down trend... I cant coun't the number of tops I've bought thinking I was buying an trend... that didn't continue... Here I like the BOP, the Volume looks good to me and a pullback. I don't see as it looks that bad.
my main trigger system is the TSV and Moneysream making their important move at the same time.. that is my catch for a quick trade... But so long as ther is a 20-50ma crossup I can stay with it ... viewing each drop back to the area between the two as a potential oportunity to buy again or add to. Untill I get another cross over then it's delisted... unliss I see a counter trend oportunity... which will have price at an extreme distance from the 20ma and positive divergences leading up to it.
Fairly straight foreward. I try not to make to many judgements adn presumptions.... That generaly leads to me saying "I don't understand... that wasn't suuposed to happen"!
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Netflix turned in tremendous numbers after the bell ...
So good in fact ... that they about have to represent a huge gain in market share ...
So ...
If Netflix gained it .... who lost it ?
I guess we'll know later this week ...
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I dunno...but I made money trading BBI on the last swing and they are getting good volume and BOP so i'm looknig for another entry. Maybee it came from holly wood video, or movietime? 
Serriously though I don't knwo what is up... and I could have guessed that NFLX was doing well.. but the chart for BBI is more apealing... and "cleaner" for me to visualize anyway for entry. NFLX I missed the primary move and the further along ti gets the more cautious I am.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
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I don't know that NFLX has necessarily been "missed" Scott ...
Although it may definitely need a just a bit of rest ....
If you draw the same longer term trendline over the tops in NFLX ...
You'll notice that ... just today ... did it gap above it ...
If I had to guess ... and it's only a guess ... I wouldn't be surprised to see NFLX rest just a bit on this trendline ...
And from there ... it may be a good play for some time to come ...
If we do have a significant economic contraction ... more and more people may find themselves at home buying 5 movies for $5 ... rather than frequenting the movie theaters ...
I've always had a lot more luck out of the market leaders ... than those that pick up the scraps ...
That's just my very humble opinion ....
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Registered User
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I admit... NFLX was probably the better way to go in hind sight. Aparently BBI will still have a nice move ahead (nice enough) and you gotta admit that compared ... chart to chart BBI looked better, in terms of Volume and 'BOP.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"You know where the secret lies..."
do tell us please !
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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BigBlock ....
For the benefit of those dumb ol' country boys among us .... namely me ...
Explain to me what we're looking at ....
Scott ...
Like most fols, I suspect, I'm a big fan of hohandy's DRYS ....
If you trim your chart back to 7-24-06 .... that was the day that it broke it's downtrending line ....
At what point would you say that it was "missed" ?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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OK ....
I understand it's a trading signal .... from a subscription trading package ...
I guess what I'm asking is ... What was the buy signal ?
The white line crossing up through the yellow one ? etc ... ?
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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BigBlock has been told on many occasions that he is not to mention or promote his paid services on these boards. He refuses to respect this forum and he will continue to be banned.
Any post from him (regardless of how many times he registers) will be deleted immediately. I hoped to keep him as part of this community but he does not want to respect Worden property.
These boards are not for promotion of other products (even his).
Note all of his posts about a trading system are about a system he sells.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Realitycheck.
I was not realy watching NFLX at that time.. and it moved sidewayse for a bit there. I only began to check it on ocassion around September... at this point it's on the move and higher risk for entry. there were other oportunities but other charts looked better.
Right now I'm really only trading one group of stocks... that are hold overs from one scan, Which BBI came up on and brought it to my attention. And I traded it in september. NFLX could have been and in retrospect was a better play... BUT it didn't come across my screen.
I am still refining the search and my aproaches.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Reality ... i'm a bit confused by your question....as I reread it. "I guess what I'm asking is ... What was the buy signal ?"
My approach is simple and flexible... I scan for all stocks where TSV and Money Stream both move at the same time... TSV 24 EXP crosses zero and Moneystream crosses its 24 day Moving average. I acknowledge that a stock could still be a good play if they move seperately... BUT I needed a way to look for strong short term possibilities That may lead to multiple trading or accumulation oportunities(I tend to get like a kid in a candy store and my watchlist get to big to manage, so I try to keep them specific). I also restrict the scan to Volume greater than it's 15 ma and by a version of the Diceman indicator.
((ABS(XAVGC20 - XAVGC35) + ABS(XAVGC40 - XAVGC35) + ABS(XAVGC50 - XAVGC35)) / XAVGC35) * 100.
I plot the appropriate Moving averages on the screen and check a weekly and daily view of these.
I also look for a shorter term version of APSLL's FAN approach..
(XAVGC20 > XAVGC50) AND (XAVGC35 > XAVGC50) AND (XAVGC50 > XAVGC60). the two can go hand in hand . But generaly the above is a confirmation (% true)
The short term scan looks for stocks where the Diceman indicator returns a low value and
XAVG(TSV,24) > 0 AND XAVG(TSV1.1,24) <= 0 and MS > XAVG(MS,25) AND MS1.1 <= XAVG(MS1.1,25)
is true (% true... but don't plot it because it slows down chart flipping, unless you are looking at the results.... just look at the indicators). I did a brief study to get a sense of what generaly happens depending on where this signal falls. GENARALY speaking... high probability of being in a good short term trade soon. Entry may not be the next day..
Other criteria are filtered out...usually visualy but I'm going to add capitilization requirements to the scan to trim it down further as on heavy movement days I get more than I wan't in the scan and often allot of "Junk" super low cap stuff.
The thing is, at some point when a stock makes a short or long term bottom the 20 ma crosses up through the 50 and as the trend continues it generaly stays that way..... or at least those are the ones I am looking for. I can buy or add to a position anytime I get a consolidation in the vacinity of the 20 ma. It takes some flexibility in intrepretation... but more or less works. I do not require the joint move on each addition.. so long as MS and TSV are looking good. It also takes allot of candle reading.
However i'm considering Scanning for established up trends (not to old?) in terms of the moving averages, Building volume . Price above the 50, MS above it's ma, TSV above zero, the diceman (above), and price with in some percent of the 20 but not less than the 50. The thing is when the above move happens it usually leads to a playable move. the probabilities of the various size of move change depending on the context in which the signal falls. But other quite playable swings happen after that signal obviously.... and just looking at charts it seems that I'd do fairly well to look for these dips below or into the range of the 20 during an established uptren as a buying point. The further price gets from it the better the chance to take proffits and the higher risk for aditional purchases.
Anyway good looking signals are moved to a watchlist if the current day is less than ideal for entry... and then the entry can be attempted later. As time goes the false signals become aparent and are eliminated ruthelessly as new candidates generaly come in daily.
I went through a great streak of trades ... often trading long, even on down days in the broad market and usualy up for the day. Those holds were usually less than a week and some of them were only tiny gains to avoid a loss. Many were prematurely exited.
But I wan't to start getting back to larger swings that don't require micromanagement.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Craig..
Right.. i'm with ya. I'm shure you have seen some of my posts to Bigblock.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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LOL ....
This thread did get a little confusing Scott ....
You see ... when BigBlock got sent to the corner ... Craig obviously removed about three of his posts ....
I was responding to one of BigBlocks posts where he posted a chart from his trading system ....
My question was regarding that post .... i.e. ... there's a bunch of very colorful things going on there ... but what exactly is the "buy" signal ?
Make sense now ?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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I disagree with Craig’s decision. I think Bigblock was careful not to mention too much about the system he sells at least in the last three years I have been reading his posts. Also I have learned a great deal from his posts. That’s too bad. AB
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Ahh.. yes. I've seen some of his charts and posts. The best was a pair of moving averages with one shifted to the left a few bars to make the signal "appear to be perfect" and a "holy grail" early signal. Diceman caught it and figured it out... it was kinda funny.
AB, you must not have seen some of the posts we have seen. I personaly don't see how a person can learn much from his poasts. Most people here are more than willing to get fairly in depth on technecal ideas, and aproaches, fairly indepth theory... most share PCF's and ides for their use.
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Registered User
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Darnit ! got distracted and posted before finishing the thought sorry.
Bigblock dosen't do much of that....The best that could be said of most of his posts is that readers are asked to view the same question from a different angle... that of an "advanced trader taking advantage of the new trader" or some such.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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Scott, look at your shoulder, reach up there and brush that chip off. Being close minded will cost you money in this game. I study everyone’s post, yes even my friend Hohandy. Don’t tell him that. And most are a good read and of some value sometimes it is a PCF and sometimes it is the writers attitude that can light the flame of an idea you can use to profit by. Good trading to you Scott. AB
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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sorry I didn't realize that I have a chip... I do think that I can take criticisms fairly well. I like to think that I'm a humble guy. I make no claims to superior cognative abilities.... but when I think I can give a positive contribution to a discution I generaly don't hesitate to contribute or ask questions... and do attempt to be clear and thorough (though my spelling and scatterbrained aproach may be difficult for some to follow) .
And those that I respect most here behave similarily.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"you and Diceman along are wrongggggg."
Ok.
I never claimed to be a market wizzard. Infact I don't know of many on this forum that have. As far as ever trading sucessfully .. I have and do... not as consistantly as I'd like to but i'm working on that.
Many people on this forum have been quite helpful, if for no other reason than to introduce me to new ideas and concepts. I wouldn't however say that I am a complete "Niave beginner". True I have not been trading for decades. I'm entering my third year.. and it comes from a complete scratch of knowing nothing, from knowing what is "A candle" to the mechanics of submitting and order and geting filled etc etc.
But then if I were a market whiz I'd probably not be hanging out here quite so much... but I feel like I learn allot here. And certain individuals have been quite helpful in discussing ideas, strategies, or what ever..... and haven't wanted me to Pay for their thouughts.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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OH in terms of missed moves... you are right probably.. but I find that If I don't keep soem sense of a purchase near suport and not chase a moving stock it tends to help me avoid being the bag holder as Ihave been in the past when i've tried to make arguments to just get in a stock that was already on the move.
From then it's time to wait IMO for a better entry.. technicaly speaking, a pullback or a consolidation... The thing for me is that often I either miss my next entry chance or didn't recognize it. Usually I pick something else that happened to look better on that given day... or had shuffled the chart somewhere and didn't get back to it.
And I full admit that I have verry little Fundamental knowledge. That is one reason why I have chosen ot focus on the technical ... in an attempt to be able to groom down a list that will need only minor Fundamental checking .... which I believe is late news anyway by the time it's available to me. And then when I swim through it and try to make heads or tails out of the details... I personaly hate it. I prefer the technical. And I've been just as dissapointed on stocks that I spent more time on fundamentals with as those I've spent none on .
Reality.. DRYS is just a hard purchase for me now...mainly it's to expensive for my Account/Risk and also so much gain has been made so fast I would have expected some kind of price digestion period, this sort of momentum run is great when you are in it.... but harder to find consistantly when they are at the right edge of the chart. If there is a way to consistantly find them i'd love to know it... Not being an intelectual market God my best aproach is to look at several of these sorts of charts at the times i'd be interested in finding them and make observations and look for things I can define and look for.... but not being an intelectual giant i'm not able to define these things in super tight parameters anyway.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I stand by what I said about BigBlocks charts.
If what I stated was incorrect. It should have been
child's play to prove me wrong.
The fact that he scrambled (quicker than the fed
lowered rates) to have his post removed. Speaks
volumes to me.
As they say: a picture is worth 1000
posts.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Scott ....
You misunderstood what I was saying ...
I wasn't saying that you should run out and buy DRYS ...
I was saying that you should trim your chart ... and examine the times that you thought it was "missed" ... and what came after ....
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Sorry ... i'm missing you "trimmed"? you mean clip back the chart and investegate those times when I thought I should have gotten into it?
Yea I've looked at it some that way also... At the time ... I couldn't know it was going to show the action it was. You know I need to develop a comfort zone with entering these stocks that are running... but at the time you never know how far it's gonig to run. My prefference is to nestle in near the beginnign of the run......If I can.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (scottnlena) Sorry ... i'm missing you "trimmed"? you mean clip back the chart and investegate those times when I thought I should have gotten into it?
Exactly ....
Very simply because ... the "turnarounds" in a company don't happen overnight ... like market reactions can ...
If the trend in a company's ventures/fundamentals have changed .... the movement will be longer term ... and another excellent example of this is the dry bulk carriers ...
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Registered User
Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 49
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I haven't had much luck with BBI. It would had been nice to be around when NFLX was mentioned here - nice ride. That guy - bigblock - sure sticks out a bit. Is he a trader?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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BBI would be an easy trade if you just applied some very basic Technical analysis. The following chart will show that using the 20 day sma crossing over the 50 day sma when there is some strong Volume vs Price indicator action taking place. (IMO) you will get another chance with this soon.
Bigblock was an accomplished Day Trader that was well respected on this forum until he decided to market his Web Site that promoted the use of Options as insurance to hedge ones position long or short in securities trading. He disregarded the Wordens policy of self promoting trading services for a profit on this forum and was ultimately baned from further participation.
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