Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
Well it took long enough but it looks like the bear market is close at hand.
The DOW rallied in a "phony" B Wave for the last 6+ months (which is the only wave that can falsely make a new high).
The rest of the indices remained well below their 2000 highs.
Good Luck to All and don't get caught in the down draft.
These markets are likely to have a few days where they shut down.
The NYSE's website describes Rules 80A and 80B that mandate the so-called circuit breakers designed to stop significant market declines. As of today,
-- A 10% decline in the DJIA would halt trading for 1 hour if it happens before 2 p.m.; for 30 mins if it happens between 2 and 2:30 p.m.; there is no halt after 2:30 p.m.
-- A 20% decline before 1 p.m. would cause a 2-hour hault; a 1-hour halt between 1 and 2 p.m., and a complete market shutdown if it happens after 2 p.m..
-- "In the event of a 3700-POINT decline in the DJIA (30 percent), regardless of the time, MARKET CLOSES for the day."
|
|
 Platinum Customer
Joined: 4/17/2006
Posts: 271
|
3700 point decline! Anyone still in the market then will swoon along with it! Hope it doesn't get THAT bad. But interesting info. Thanks for posting it, truemaster.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
|
I take it truemaster is of the "glass is half empty" school of thought?:) Seriously, I think at the least a test of the 200-day on the Naz looks likely, somewhere around 2300 +/-. Not rocket science.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
I agree with you fpetry. Also note, the low of Nov 3 was around 2316.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
I'm not shure I like that... the artificial laws governing supply and demand...sounds kinda comunist to me. Markets have risk... that is understood. Market drawdowns in the long run are good for the long term health of the market and economy. Pluss that is waht selling short is for. those of us that are savy enough to take advantage of more emotional traders... this is our season, and now that is beign fiddled with. I supose there is not an equilivant inverse of that..... if markets ran up 30% in the first 1/2 the day they wouldn't stop trading.
I'm not certain I even follow the logic unless it is time to give people to calm down and think..... but a big drop and then a market shut down seems to me that when they reopen the line in front of the sell would be even biger.
Probably some broker got sued for getting someone a really bad entry (that they probably requested)right before a market crash, and becasue of our "take no responsibility for your self" society the litigations were passed into law.
9/11 type calamaties I can understand.
Though when markets are moving that fast it is hard to get in or out.
|
|
Platinum Customer
Joined: 4/17/2006
Posts: 271
|
I'm with you scott. Markets are self-regulating systems...and should be allowed to do what they need to do. People learn by reaping the consequences (good or bad) of their actions and decisions. When attorneys intervene to rescue the individual from painful consequences, then the system is enabling risky behaviors and prevents the individual from being allowed to learn from his own mistakes. It basically communicates to the individual that he is a victim, is powerless, and is incapable of learning from his mistakes. That doesn't make for a healthy society. (Oh, don't get me started!)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
Amisdt all the gloom and doom can the Pheonix take flight this week ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
Well friends...
The idea of the circuit breaker "time outs" in the markets, is to give investors a moment of pause.
But in reality it will probably make them more anxious, because the globex futures still trade during that "time out". So investors have to wait while the futures are still tanking. It could actually have the opposite effect of expanding the panic.
The markets will go where they want to go eventually.
As far as the overall outlook, I don't think its gloom and doom.
We just need to be ready for the approaching storm.
It would be crazy to blast the weather man as being "negative" who is warning us to prepare for an approaching hurricane...
Look, this market has been good for a LONG TIME and the behavior of ignoring the warning signs has been equally rewarded.
WE MAY GET A SMALL BOUNCE HERE...WITH TRIPLE WITCHING EXPIRATIONS ON FRIDAY...BUT ULTIMATELY THE FATE OF THE MARKETS IS LOWER.
WE CAN PREPARE OR LOOK THE OTHER WAY AND CALL IT "NEGATIVE THINKING".
|
|
 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
|
Sharkattack: Re 3/13 post
"The sole outcome of protecting people from the consequences of their folly, is to fill the world with fools" Chesterton (?)
Mammon
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
|
QUOTE (sharkattak) When attorneys intervene to rescue the individual from painful consequences, then the system is enabling risky behaviors and prevents the individual from being allowed to learn from his own mistakes. It basically communicates to the individual that he is a victim, is powerless, and is incapable of learning from his mistakes. That doesn't make for a healthy society. (Oh, don't get me started!)
wow - it's all about knee-jerk attorney bashing. Why bother having laws and a court system then, let's just all duke it out and let the strongest walk away with the winnings while the rest lick their wounds and contemplate "learning from their mistakes". Of course without a legal system and those whose job it is to protect and advocate the legal rights of others, a sophisticated economy based upon contract and risk-avoidance would be impossible and you wouldn't have a stock market to profit from - but hey, those attorneys sure are bad guys aren't they? Oh, don't get me started!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
Attorneys have their place. However the point was that it is senseless what has been done... and you can bet that this litigation was NOT passed with the average investors or traders best interest in mind. This may irritate the crap out of you but my beliefe is that in this country "Justice is open to all - like the Ritz Hotel" (Sir James Mathews, in reference to the English legal system.... but seems to apply here as well). My bashing comes from experience.. so don't get me started. By and large it is big money and political and corporate interests that move these sorts of things in this country. the average Joe has a difficult time of it here. Any time a cases outcome can be won on a strategy of bleeding the other party of money in court costs and legal fees into settling out of court then things need to be seriously re-examined.
Then there are those people who order hot coffee... spill it on them selves and try to get paid for it. It's a mess.
|
|
Platinum Customer
Joined: 4/17/2006
Posts: 271
|
QUOTE (mammon) Sharkattack: Re 3/13 post
"The sole outcome of protecting people from the consequences of their folly, is to fill the world with fools" Chesterton (?)
Mammon
HA! I'd never heard that before. I love it! Thanks, mammon. 
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
|
I think Shakespeare had something to say about lawyers, but I won't repeat it here:)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
|
As long as we're quoting, I believe it was Alexander Pope who said "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing"
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
|
Talking head on CNBC stated this morning when refering to the market, "it is what it is." I think Popeye once said, "I yam what I yam."
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
|
Truemmaster - Where was the end of wave A? Does your system have a target or target range for wave C?
soc
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/17/2006
Posts: 46
|
Another talking head on CNBC stated he thought money bought happiness. If it does'nt buy happines "It buys the kind of missery I prefer" !!!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
So much for down from here... I really thought we were looking at another leg down from here... so now the questin is ... is this it, this is the bottom of the correction? I'm dubious... but volume seems ok yesterday and today. I'm only a gold member so I'll find out tonight naturally.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Scott, Take a look at the Nasdaq in 2004 and 2005 those corections did not look anything like the last correction we had in May 2006
Like individual stocks the markets will do what ever they want to do, not what we want..
No one knows how this beast will react, just use caution and pick your moments...
We may be in for a hell of a ride...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
Socrates:
I would like to point out that this "bounce" was expected into "quadruple witching"
The most probable wave count has us into the third wave down.
Wave 1 (Down and Short):
Began: February 21
Ended: March 5
Wave 2 (Up and Usually Very Sharp and Deep...But Very Weak This Time Barley X0.382 ..OMINOUS SIGN!):
Began: March 5
Ended: March 12
Wave 3 (Down Hard & Strongest...Usually Extends a Long, Long Time):
Began: March 12
__Sub Wave 1 (Down):
__Began: March 12
__Ended: March 14
__Sub Wave 2 (Up and Deep Already X0.618):
__Began: March 14
__Ends: March 16??
MOST DANGEROUS GAP DOWN PORTION IS APPROACHING RAPIDLY (3RD OF 3RD Wave Super Position)
__Sub Wave 3 (GAP DOWNS AND RELENTLESS SELLING PRESSURE):
__Begins: March 19 (Monday After Expiration???)
__Ends: ????
__Sub Wave 4
__Begins: ????
__Ends: ????
__Sub Wave 5
__Begins: ????
__Ends: ????
Ends: ?????? (Not for a long while)
Wave 4 (Up and Complex Usually Long and Sloppy in form of Flat or Triangle):
Begins: ???
Ends: ???
Wave 5 (Down and Same Length as Wave 1 if Wave 3 Extends):
Begins: ???
Ends: ???
That is the most probably situation, but nothing is set in stone.
Tomorrow with expiration, the market usually is volatile but trendless. The Monday after expiration is traditionally weak.
If I had to take a flying guess about tomorrow, I would say open lower and then recovery throughout the day as computer trading takes over. Then finishing with little change or slightly down, ready for Monday sell off.
It is time to get very aggressive with short positions tomorrow to capitalize on this potential opportunity.
If you are long hedge now with long puts as stops will be useless in the coming chaos.
The Sun is setting...be ready for night fall.
-TM
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
I don't understand much about Elliott Wave theory, but I do enjoy reading your interpretations of it. Thx truemaster.
BTW - early morning trading in the Asian/Far East markets is down around 1% at this time. The overseas markets plus tomorrow's CPI numbers and quadruple witching could make for an interesting trading day tomorrow.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
FWIW,
If I'm examining things from an Elliott Wave POV, I believe we are at the start of the big wave C down.
Elliott Wave terminology can be confusing. Although this post will use lots of those terms, I'll summarize my position for those not familiar with EWT right here.
6 Month Outlook SP-500.
Near term:
1. Intraday high around 1400-1410, likely tomorrow
2. Decline of about 9.14% from those levels to 1272-1300.
3. A possibly sharp retracement rally (bear market rally) taking us back to around 1370.
4. The potential of a decline of major proportions, that could take the SP down to 1082, or 21% lower from the 1370 level.
If this is true, the bear market is still early, and the bulls will fight tooth and nail in trying to prop the market up. From the low of wave 1 (to be calculated shortly), we could still end up very close to these levels before a severe sell off starts.
From the high at 2/22/07, I count 5 waves down to the low on 3/5/07. I consider that the end of wave 1 of a larger 1 of C. I'm using intraday data (hourly) to do this.
Wave a of 2 ended on 3/12/07. The decline and recovery yesterday was wave b of 2. We are in wave c of 2, which should end tomorrow with options expiration, with Monday starting wave 3 down.
The decline from the February peak to the end of wave 1 was a loss of 5.65%. If wave 3 is (1.618 * 5.65%),
wave 3 should cause a loss of 9.14%, depending on where we end up for this wave c of 2.
If we end up at a high around 1400 tomorrow, then we could see a decline to about 1272 on the SP before wave 3 is done, essentially erasing all of the gains since the July lows.
I'd prefer to round up to around 1300, as that is where my 200 day envelope channels suggest support to be at.
We might still see wave 5 of 1 of C take the SP down to below 1272, but there is plenty of time to figure out what path the market takes.
Of course, we are likely to see some support around
1330--the 55 week moving average.
What happens once wave 1 is done? The target suggested above is nearly a 13% decline from peak to trough. We could rally 8% from those levels, which would take us all the way back to 1374--not too far from where we currently are.
Of course the bulls would be snorting again, talking about us silly bears, and how they are ready to challenge the highs.
FWIW, I don't expect such a sharp wave 2 rally, although I would expect a retest of the 200 day moving average, before wave 3 down. If wave 3 is the standard 1.618 length of wave 1 (a 13% decline), then wave 3 should be a 21% drop, which would take the SP down to 1082.
I'll come back to revisit this count, as it develops.
Although it is unlikely, if we close above 1410, I'd be forced to revise this count, and would be neutral in that context.
What is the point of all of this? It suggests there will be ample opportunities to trade, both long and short, although the shorts would seem to have the edge from a trend following POV.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
True Master and RMR1976
Wow... that is really something. elliot must have been a genious. NOt that many people will commit to such a concrete projection... and put it in writing. The last year has taught me that as APSLL said in another poast... "these markets will do what they want to". I personally would be cautious of a system or theory that is so specifically structured....besides the fact that it is allot of work to learn and think about. It amazes me that all these differeent market movement ideas and theories can more or less mesh togeather and all be valid. I prefer to think that markets will fall till they have had enough. That for some fundamental reason that will iroonically line up with previous suport, resistance, a Moving average or some Fibbinanci contraption, markets will reverse direction and go back up. At that time There will be probably a large number of stocks coming off a new low of some timperiod and begining tomove up through a moving average of some time period shortly there after they will make a higher high and a higer low. Probably there will have been an increasing number of positive divergences in TSV, Moneystream, allot of stocks poping up on quite accumulation scans and maybee some new subindustries that show up on the scene as having shown amazing strength in the face of a large retracement...and some form of sector cycling will become aparent. Technical analysis is alwayse so easy in hindsight.
My hats off to anyone who will venture even the slightest guess at a specific price TWO market moves away let alone five, AND comit it to writing in a public forum. Seriously I don't care if you are right or not... you made a stab, probably not in the dark and i'm impressed. I for one think it is ok to be wrong but to have ventured an educated guess.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
Scott,
This is not strictly a "prediction" because there is no specific time frame attached to any of the price projections. It is my subjective guess that the process will take about 6 months.
In real trading, I look at how the market is acting, by looking at the price, volume, and momentum, along with the response to news, to see if the outlook is still valid, or if it needs to be adjusted.
The key point with EWT--you can place very close stops when your outlook is proven incorrect. It is also important to be competent in using conventional technicals, because there are many times when EWT won't be helpful.
Take a look through my posts, where I gave my thoughts in real time, particularly this one in May 2006.
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12715
They weren't perfect, nothing is--but they were remarkably close. At least 2 posters here--HnC, and Socrates, have commented on the "remarkable" accuracy of many of my posts.
Keep an open mind, and take the analysis for what you think it is worth.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
great.. I hope you are not offended... that is not what I intended. I just have never seen anyone make that sort of detailed projection that far out. I have skimmed some stuff with eliot wave theory and it was abit beyond me. And some technical people don't give it much credibility. I do have an open mind and I'm shure it was devised by a man far brighter than I, who saw a mathmatical order to the seemingly random movements of the market. I'm shure there is something to it or it wouldn't have carried as far as it has. I am not there yet.
As far as your accuracy that is great. It's a great feeling isn't it. I've had a few days in the sun also(I'm a newer trader)... and its best when you manage to put your money where your mouth is.... I begin to brag at that point and soemthing happens. I used to think the sisters of fate confused me for thier exhusband but I realize now I just got sloppy from over confidence. I do thank you for sharing this with us and will be keenly interested to see how it plays out.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
Elliot was a genius...no computers.
The wave pattern has very specific rules about the relationship of waves in relation to each other. The only problem is that there are a number of fibonacci levels that can be retraced within those boundaries.
But now the levels of probability are converging sharply towards a historic sell off.
You don't need to be a genius to see that iceberg.
RMS TITANTIC
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
yea... I need to cull my short list... most of the items on it have fallen or are not at ideal shorting spots for me.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
Well...
Lets talk most probable short term outcomes:
The market behaved as planned today...closing below the highs.
However, there was a bit more weakness that I anticipated. This is an even larger bearish sign.
We will have to see what happens next week:
1. Either sub wave 2 up within the larger wave finished today and we begin selling off immediately Monday(given the weakness today I favor this outcome).
or
2. Sub wave 2 up will finish early next week (after the Fed meeting).
Either way longer term the fate is the same....down.
Remember that these bear market legs unfold much quicker and have steeper downward slopes. Contrast the recent advance from August that had an angle of ascent 38 degrees from the horizontal with the new down trend that has a incline of -73 degrees from the horizontal. So things are developing at almost twice the rate on the way down here. If we do get rolling quickly the S&P should take out 1310 like hot knife through butter and probably make it through 1250 with ease on this third wave kick off. That 3rd wave could have an angle of decent of -80 to -85 degrees if we start gapping down multiple times.
This may seem really strange to most people because we are so use to the long term bull markets with gentle and continuous slopes on the order of 20-30 degrees. However, one cannot apply the same "mind set" to bear markets. They behave differently and most have never seen a true bear market at all..let alone one of the coming magnitude.
The good news for the financial health of the country is that the bear legs are relatively short in length, the bad news is that they eat up years and years of steady gains just as quick.
According to the larger Elliot Wave forecast the most probable outcome is that the current larger C wave down should "only" last about 5-6 years, but the take back of gains will be relentless. This bear market is one degree larger than the 1929 crash. Yes..larger. So that should take us back quite a few years.
Remember key words are Most Probable Outcome. <:o)
TM
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
Truemaster,
Over the long term, I share your bearish conclusions, and I do agree with your bearish sentiment over the intermediate term, but I do think you might want to consider the following.
By my observations, we are only in wave (1).1.5 of C. Knowing how the first 2 waves of a trend often lead to false starts, I don't think those support levels you pointed out will "be taken out like a hot knife through butter" in the immediate future.
A wave 2 retrace from 1280-1300 is likely to scare the bears, and encourage the bulls. Then the bottom can fall out of the market, fooling everyone, except the Elliott Wave Traders :)
The wave 3.3 you are looking for will come when the pundits realize the economic wreckage the subprime fall out is causing in the real estate market, and the general economy. It is going to take a few more months before the data killing off "Goldilocks" is truly in, and even a deluded bull sees the handwriting on the wall.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
Ive heard arguments that this bear or that bear is bigger than teh 1929 crash... but they will all bee becasue of so many market participants.... the markets are so much bigger now that corrections are hard to compare to those in ancient history because they are not porportionally the same. Perhaps the relative percentage of the drop would be a better barometer....unless you are saying that a drop of that magnitude is yet to come... in which case let it come. I now how to short and it will create some great buying opportunities.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
rmr,
Good to speak with you again....fights anyone??? 
About the 3rd of 3rd, remember that we are still just in a larger degree 1 wave down that engulfs these 5 waves. So this 3rd of a 3rd is just a mini crash compared to what is to come. We are probably still in the DOW 500-1000 point mini crash 1 day range. Although I wouldn't be surprised if we see a 1200 point day pretty soon here.
It is entirely possible that the support levels will be taken out quickly because "bear markets have no supports". Remember, you cannot apply the same thinking that we did in the bull market. It simply won't work.
The purpose of the bear market is to:
1. Restore us to the other side of the equilibrium from the optimism and excess extreme we have created.
2. Force participants to deeply ponder their actions and consequences.
3. Condition all participants into a strict sense of reality and responsibility (particularly with credit surplus).
4. Educate participants as to the true value of the markets.
5. Create a new reference point of "normal" valuations.
Enantiodromia in Psychology or Simple Harmonic Motion in Physics its all the same concept.
At the bottom we will have over shot to the pessimist side, and a new "normal" will be created.
On that we can build upon, and become bullish once again. But not before the shock and awe of the bear.
Scottnlena,
On a Relative percentage basis, Elliot Wave Financial rolls the Dow back to the 1950's which is in the 400 range. This is a drop of almost 97% from the 12795.9 high. I know that sounds completely absurd, but by strict Elliot Wave terms this is where is must retrace to. It is almost too much to even fathom.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
I’m curious rmr, truemaster
Is there any point in time when your analysis would
be viewed as wrong.
It seems rather easy to me to predict the end of the world.
( you were playing the same tune last summer truemaster)
Then say there was a phony bull. "Now is the top".
(it seems as if that was my strategy a “top” call would be
hard to miss)
Just imagine if I predicted new highs from here and the markets
proceeded to plunge. I don’t think you would view me as credible
if I stated this was a phony bear.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
Diceman, you need to read more carefully.
In my initial post, I wrote:
"Although it is unlikely, if we close above 1410, I'd be forced to revise this count, and would be neutral in that context."
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
rmr
That is the point.
You can keep revising forever.
Is there any point when there can
be a bull or do you just keep revising?
It is as if you are saying:
The market will go down.
(unless it doesnt)
Then it will go down from here.
It strikes me as if you will take major
credit if there is a sell-off and
"skip" it if you are wrong.
I dont see what that brings to the table.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
Mr. Diceman,
Ah...the skeptic is back,
Well first of all, it seems you keep going over the same points again and again and again so lets address them:
You really need to listen and if you don't agree then fine...but just try to listen.
You are like a broken record, saying the same thing over and over again...even when people answer your questions. It is apparent that your knowledge of Elliot Wave analysis is very limited so pay close attention.
1. To be wrong we would have to get a confirmation in all three averages to new highs (DOW, S&P and NASDAQ and sustain them). A broadbased advance to new highs would put an end to the current Elliot Wave bear theory.
2. The Dow made a new high but it did not keep it. The only case that a new high can be made but not confirmed in broad based averages is in a B wave. They are rare, but they have and do happen. We can look to the other broadbased averages for a true picture. The S&P and the NASDAQ are set well below their highs.
3. You should be careful before you lump Elliot wave into the "End of the World"..."Doomsday Camp". Prechter and Elliot Wave Financial are simply interpreting the wave pattern rules set forth by RN Elliot and AJ Frost. You should really take this point home. So what would you call them in the late 1970s when Elliot Wave called the coming of the great bull market when everyone was predicting doom and gloom?? It was simply interpreting the wave principle rules. You need to get this straight.
4. No one is trying to take "credit" away from you or skip the market advances. We are talking about a multi decade top. We are talking about probabilities. But most importantly we are talking about a theory. Whether you agree or not, that is what Elliot Wave is reading. Back in August/September I will be the first to tell you the I was Screaming TOP!! TOP!!! Because the chances a false new high within a B waves were less likely. But it happened. This is why we use stops if we are short. The high was unconfirmed by any other broad measure indicator.
5. The DOW is really a manipulated average. Do you know how it is weighted? The DOW is a poor indicator to treat as a broad measure of market advance. It is only 30 stocks, and the weighting severely skews the average. THIS IS KEY. The DOW gives the highest weight to the highest price stocks. This means that the bottom stocks of the DOW can go down, get the DOW a net point decline and the DOW weighting cause the average to actually rise! By definition it ignores the weakest stocks and manifies the strongest. That sounds nuts but it is true. So it makes the DOW an even narrower collection of stocks. This is the only average I know of that can go up with a net true stock point decline.
6. It is really easy to sit on the side line and be a skeptic with the logic of: The market has always gone up, therefore it will continue to do so. Anyone who projects a long term decline "brings nothing to the table". So keep sitting on the sidelines and tossing those rocks my friend. Who's bringing nothing? You.
7. If the persistent multi year decline does occur, will you be able to admit it? At what point do you acknowledge the bear market? Do you even have a plan? Because you really should. This bear market has the potential to rip things apart quickly.
Moving averages and momentum are nice tools, but for the most part they are backwards looking.
Elliot Wave is a very useful tool for forward thinking and probable outcome in the markets.
These are the premises that Elliot Wave forth and it brings plenty to the table.
You just don't want to see ANY OF IT.
This is sad.
I may be wrong, but that's why God invented stops.
At least I am laying it out there and stating what I think and I will continue to do so.
By the way did I tell you that the end is near?
TM
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
Truemaster,
I don't fault Diceman for being skeptical of EWT. There are good reasons to be skeptical. Assuming it has some value, why?
There are no economic reasons I can think of that require prices to oscillate in 3 and 5 wave patterns, but there are times when it seems to happen.
Having said that, from my observations, I have to agree with Hamilton Bolton who found some of the concepts of Elliott Wave to be of value.
For those who do not know, Hamilton Bolton was a money manager during the 50's and 60's, who did work on market breadth, as well as bank credit. Telechart has a Bolton-Tremblay indicator, which he invented. He was both a fundamentalist and a technician, when being a technician was unfashionable. He (along with his collegue Maurice Tremblay) produced the Bank Credit Analyst, and in that publication, charted the market using Elliott Wave.
What is frustrating about the diceman is his constant moving of the goalposts.
Back in June, he complained (ad nauseum) about Pretcher, his lack of using stops to alter his conclusion, etc.
He wanders down that same worn out path again in this thread. Yet, when I point out a close above 1410 would cause me to change my analysis, he writes:
That is the point.
You can keep revising forever.
Hello! This IS a market you are talking about! Markets move up, then down, and then up again! Trend followers can be accused of the same thing--it is called a whipsaw!
Some mechanical systems are always in the market, and therefore always revising their positions, based on market action. Is that really a flaw if they make money?
The whole point of trading is to see if you can catch some of these swings!
Diceman is a trend follower--a long only trend follower at that. That is all he talks about, as if it were self-evident.
The fact is, markets trend. They also cycle, which means selling at highs and buying at lows is a good strategy. It is a strategy even the fundamentalists would agree with.
While I readily acknowledge markets trend, I think too little emphasis is placed on cyclical components of price action, which can give you better entries (ie. less slippage) and better risk/reward ratios.
But he neglects to mention the significant drawbacks to FOLLOWING trends, especially the volatility of their results, the often intolerable drawdowns, etc.
Knowing the TREND alone won't make you money, unless you have a VERY long holding period. It is when you buy WITHIN THE TREND, that determines the profits.
I want to find the LOW RISK points within the trend to initiate a position. I don't want to buy because everyone is buying, or sell when everyone is selling, unless there are very good reasons to do so.
I want to find, like Jesse Livermore, those "danger points" where you will know if you are wrong very quickly, but can add to your position when proven right.
By doing this, I can maximize my wins, while keeping losses small.
If diceman prefers to stick with trends, even though there may be points in time when waiting for the signal could cause him to give back most of his profits, that is his perogative.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
What is realy sad here is your strange devotion to a crackpot theory..
I have read enogh old threads from the elliot enthusiasts to see that you are all wrong most of the time. And you always have some excuse for why, A misinterpretation here a "I was close to the mark" there.
Even on other forums it is the same thing, year after year and still the same excuses why you were not exactly correct this time..
Everyone has the same odds of being right or wrong in pronouncing the ultimate destination of where the markets will be 10 years from now.(And that gives you plenty of time to think up some new excuses)
You are all right about one thing, Market direction is governed by political and economic forces. And these forces are ever changing, there is no predictive nature in any long term direction, political, economic or Market direction.
One last question, if the elliot theory is so pronounced and acurate then why over decades of (predictive insights) and sure knowledge of where and when the Markets are going, are you all not supper rich by now.
"It is apparent that your knowledge of Elliot Wave analysis is very limited so pay close attention".
I do not speak for Diceman of corse, but I do not see logic in possesing the secrets of Elliots theories if the whole idea is ludicrous (IMO)
I know there is going to be fall-out from my words but I do not care.
Diceman has a much more sane view of the realities of the stock market then Elliot disciples...
Apsll...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
have read enogh old threads from the elliot enthusiasts to see that you are all wrong most of the time. And you always have some excuse for why, A misinterpretation here a "I was close to the mark" there.
So are trend followers, if the system testers are to be believed. Trend followers often have systems with % wins much less than 50%.
If you take the traditional reward/risk of 3 to 1, before taking a trade, how often do you need to be correct to break even? Do you know?
If an Elliott Wave trader takes 9 trades and loses 1 dollar on each trade, and on trade 10 makes 100 dollars, is he profitable? Yes or no?
The fact is, there are some very smart mathematicians who believe markets follow fractal patterns. While they would not call themselves Elliott Wave proponents, the fact that:
1. Some mathematically sophisticated people are applying fractals to markets
2. Elliott Wave is a fractal theory
Lead me to give Elliott Wave a second look.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
|
apsll,
Elliot Wave is a theory, nothing more, nothing less.
It is a tool of analysis to add to one's arsenal.
Elliot Wave Theory is NOT a bag of secrets. There are very specific rules. But do to the fractal nature of the wave principle it is complex. Most people like diceman are simply too lazy to research the topic before debate.
So how can you debate a topic which you know nothing about???
Diceman just takes likes to take shots. That is his M.O.
If you took the time to research you would know that I have been critical of Elliot Wave Theory on multiple levels. In the end in my opinion is that there is more good than bad from it.
But again here you go arguing without knowing any background. Ignorance or Intolerance AT BEST.
Look again I will state it very cleary:
1. To be wrong we would have to get a confirmation in all three averages to new highs (DOW, S&P and NASDAQ and sustain them). A broad based advance to new highs would put an end to the current Elliot Wave bear theory.
Until we get a broad based confirmation of new highs, we are in a bear market. This is not revising forever. Get it through you head. It seems that people on this board CANNOT READ.
That is as clear cut as you can get.
So again lets see if you can address the question:
7. If the persistent multi year decline does occur, will you be able to admit it? At what point do you acknowledge the bear market? Do you even have a plan? Because you really should. This bear market has the potential to rip things apart quickly.
Will you even be able to admit Elliot Wave is correct if we get this multiyear decline true to Elliot Form?
My guess is that most "Elliot Hater's" would not even be capable of admitting Elliot Theory was right in such event. If that is the case then you are not even qualified to enter this debate. You would be doing the same sin you accuse Elliot of...revising and revising. Oh yeah, that's right I forgot: "Eventually the broken clock tells the right time". I'm sure that will be the rationale against Elliot Wave if the multi-year decline occurs.
In light of this, it is more of a witch hunt against Elliot than a debate.
One last thought here:
It is the hardest thing in the world to publicly state a bias in the markets. It is even harder to make exact predictions that are correct. Predictions should be taken as tongue and cheek. Not as a means to crucifixion.
In contrast it is infinitely more easy to throw rocks and tear others down. There is no skill in that.
It seems that no one can even discuss Elliot Wave Theory here without violent opposition. You don't have to agree but...man geez! Where does this hatred come from?
Bringing something to the table does not equate to ripping people down.
My advice to you is to research your topic before engaging in debate.
This is a discussion board of ideas.
To each their own. 
TM
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
rmr, truemaster
You completely miss the point.
This is not about any market theory.
It is about your comments not really meaning
anything.
You can state it will rain tomorrow.
Eventually you will be correct.
I would not call it predicting the weather.
truemaster states: "sell your longs now"
talks about "aggressive shorts"
Then talks about a multi-decade top.
When exactly is someone supposed to get aggressive?
(between now and 2017?)
Don’t you realize when you call for a bear it must happen eventually?
Don’t you realize when you are wrong.(my term)
You can’t just say: "this was a phony bull".
or "I will revise my forecast"?
It maybe your opinion that the market is wrong. It may be your opinion that it can’t go up.
It is certainly not a forecast.
By the way truemaster. I also agree we will have a bear in the next decade.
(it is so vague it is meaningless)
thanks
diceman
|
|
|
Guest-1 |