Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
This looks like a pretty ripe entry point...thoughts?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/1/2005
Posts: 36
|
That Bear fund sure looks Bullish. A push through that 50 with much heavier volume would be confirmation for me. Right now though you have price up with declining vol.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) This looks like a pretty ripe entry point...thoughts?
Seems almost "too easy" ... doesn't it ?
One thing that the market has taught me is ...
Just about the time that you figure out what it's doing ....
It goes and does something different ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (sieandme) That Bear fund sure looks Bullish. A push through that 50 with much heavier volume would be confirmation for me. Right now though you have price up with declining vol.
sieandme - I pay little attention to volume on exchange traded funds since they are in essence derivatives of other securities. Volume of exchange traded funds don't push price the same way it does for an individual security.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (ben2k9) This looks like a pretty ripe entry point...thoughts?
Seems almost "too easy" ... doesn't it ?
One thing that the market has taught me is ...
Just about the time that you figure out what it's doing ....
It goes and does something different ...
Yeah, it lmost does seem too easy! But wouldn't you just kick yourself if you didn't play it when it was lined up this well and then it turned out to be a super trade?
I figure I'll put a stop right under the previous low and aim for a target in the mid $90's.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (sieandme) That Bear fund sure looks Bullish. A push through that 50 with much heavier volume would be confirmation for me. Right now though you have price up with declining vol.
Here's the first-order market that will drive BGZ. I think the volume pattern here should add weight to the thesis.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) I think the volume pattern here should add weight to the thesis.
Seems like a tremendous amount of volume ... for a 15 point move ... doesn't it ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
options expiration friday helped pushed volume
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Ben I think that you do have to pay attention to Volume on these vehicles. I have been playing BGU & BGZ against each other for some time now (Intraday). Swing trading them on the 1 minute charts using support and resistance levels has paid off. I keep an eye on the markets as I play them as well as each other (BGZ vs BGU). They both show up on my easy scan for good AVTR & high volume.
My trading group is good for this because we can cheer each other on or advise. I hope that you are doing well in your trading Ben.
Apsll.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) options expiration friday helped pushed volume
OK ...
So if OPEX caused an anomaly in the volume ...
Did it cause one in the price ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (realitycheck)
QUOTE (ben2k9) options expiration friday helped pushed volume
OK ...
So if OPEX caused an anomaly in the volume ...
Did it cause one in the price ?
Who said it was an anomaly? it is what it is...as they say. Interpretations vary. ;)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (Apsll) Ben I think that you do have to pay attention to Volume on these vehicles. I have been playing BGU & BGZ against each other for some time now (Intraday). Swing trading them on the 1 minute charts using support and resistance levels has paid off. I keep an eye on the markets as I play them as well as each other (BGZ vs BGU). They both show up on my easy scan for good AVTR & high volume.
My trading group is good for this because we can cheer each other on or advise. I hope that you are doing well in your trading Ben.
Apsll.
I don't ignore volume on these, but I pay the most attention to the volume of the first-order market, in this case the S&P500. The S&P500 is the dog, and BGU or BGZ is the tail. The dog wags the tail.
The trading group sounds like fun, i only wish I had time to participate!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) Interpretations vary. ;)
Yes they do ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
you going to share yours?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
ben: you may be exactly right. But that could be true for everything if the market drops like a rock on monday. Isn't the Prez. supposed to give some sort of economic speech monday? What time i'm not sure of. Probably depends upon how wall street likes the rumors if the speech is in the evening. Just should hope for the best. If he is going to give a speech in the evening, i hope it doesn't interfer with 24, that would really upset me, more than the market going down some more.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
Yeah I hear you about 24!! Best damn show on this planet, aside from LOST.
About the market dropping, this is exactly my point. Technically, the stars are aligned for the market to drop. BGZ will just drop 3x more than everything else.
On the other hand, the facts could change tomorrow with the announcement of the Treasury plan to clear toxic assets off banks balance sheets. This might cause an explosive reversal and stop out everyone who went short on Friday, causing more buying. This is the nature of the markets...just when something seems obvious, it's not.
My portfolio is currently hedged, but I'm looking to take some directional bets soon
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
Never watched Lost. Is it a continuing show like 24 or it a show where the story ends after each episode? I'll have to check it out.
I like 24 for several reasons, but one is that it continually shows the stupidity of the beauracacy of D.C.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
|
on the hourly i like it but on the daily id wait for it to close above 80 to pick up momentum
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
|
I'll try it with options. Let's see what happens Monday.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (ben2k9)
On the other hand, the facts could change tomorrow with the announcement of the Treasury plan to clear toxic assets off banks balance sheets. This might cause an explosive reversal and stop out everyone who went short on Friday, causing more buying. This is the nature of the markets...just when something seems obvious, it's not.
Looks like this is the M.O.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
Seems almost "too easy" ... doesn't it ?
One thing that the market has taught me is ...
Just about the time that you figure out what it's doing ....
It goes and does something different ...
[/QUOTE]
Looks like Reality was right on here.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
I think watching the VIX helped point out that it wasn't such a sure thing that we were dropping today. BGZ didn't have any support from the LR30 and its lbb20 was dropping away. That doesn't mean it couldn't have moved up but it made me unsure about whether I wanted to be in it.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
tobydad: i doubt if ben got in, after the big initial move up. If he was in, I'm sure his stop was hit, hopefully it would have been a close stop. Like Reality said, it's amazing everytime one thinks that you have found a perfect setup, NOT!!!
Any bets on a pullback tomorrow?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
NOW, it is time to back up the truck for BGZ....at about 10:30 tomorrow 3/24 after the profit taking by the big money starts....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
|
Well, that trade didn't work out very well. There are two things that I can be thankful for;
1. I used options so I didn't get wacked so bad.
2. I used papermoney and not real money. Still, it doesn't make me feel any better. It was still a BIG mistake.
Live and learn
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
I didn't enter the trade. it would have been like stepping in front of an oncoming train today.
I wish I had the capability to day-trade in this environment...it seems to me to be more practical and lower risk. Alas, my situation restricts me from day trading :(
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
BGU was the one to play today. When BGZ is going down then look to BGU. Todays range ($22.00 to $25.41) Was a good play for good profits.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
thanks for that piece of advice apsll. Now that we know what happened today, how about letting us know what is going to happen tomorrow.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
gotta respect the short term trend for now.
there has been underlying technical strength in the current rally, even before today.
need to wait for technicals to break down first. the trend isn't going to turn on a dime.
the treasurie's plan is idiotic. and the dems are suppose to be helping the little guy. lol. i suspect some end of the quarter window dressing today.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
John you have been developing quit the acid tonque lately. Is there somthing on your mind?
I agree with Funnymoney on this one. Get ready to start shorting at around 880.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (Apsll)
I agree with Funnymoney on this one. Get ready to start shorting at around 880.
880 will be the mother of all bull-bear battles if we get there.
good luck trading your etf's.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (funnymony)
the treasurie's plan is idiotic.
Of course it is ... what do you expect ?
I watched OBAMA's speech ... the one before the joint session of Congress ... when he talked about Americans needing more education ....
In a word ... he said that American's were just too stupid ...
Well ... DOH !!! ... the fact that he is POTUS ought to be all the evidence that you need of that !!
They have set two plans into motion ... that are in opposition to one another ...
First ... the new PPIP ... which is designed to move the toxic assets from the banks ... into the hands of private investors ...
But meanwhile ... back at the ranch ... the Congress has threatened the FASB concerning Rule 157 ...
Change it ... or else we will !!!
Well ... if the FASB relaxes Rule 157 ... and lets the banks abandon marked-to-market accounting ... and return to marked-to-fantasy accounting ... then what incentive will the banks have to sell the toxic assets at any price below par ?
And what private investor ... in his right mind ... would be willing to pay more than half of par value for those assets ??
I reckon that the market will figure all of this out in a couple of weeks ... when the announcement comes out of the FASB ... as to what they are going to do ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
Apsll: Just keeping you on your toes. Remember never take yourself too seriously. A little humour never hurt anyone as long as it is not malicious. B.B. may be watching.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
I vote we send Reality to D.C. to run the country. At least they couldn't baffle him with B.S.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (funnymony)
the treasurie's plan is idiotic.
Of course it is ... what do you expect ?
I watched OBAMA's speech ... the one before the joint session of Congress ... when he talked about Americans needing more education ....
In a word ... he said that American's were just too stupid ...
Well ... DOH !!! ... the fact that he is POTUS ought to be all the evidence that you need of that !!
They have set two plans into motion ... that are in opposition to one another ...
First ... the new PPIP ... which is designed to move the toxic assets from the banks ... into the hands of private investors ...
But meanwhile ... back at the ranch ... the Congress has threatened the FASB concerning Rule 157 ...
Change it ... or else we will !!!
Well ... if the FASB relaxes Rule 157 ... and lets the banks abandon marked-to-market accounting ... and return to marked-to-fantasy accounting ... then what incentive will the banks have to sell the toxic assets at any price below par ?
And what private investor ... in his right mind ... would be willing to pay more than half of par value for those assets ??
I reckon that the market will figure all of this out in a couple of weeks ... when the announcement comes out of the FASB ... as to what they are going to do ...
the treasury will put 6 dollars to the private investors 1? and the private investor then keeps the profits, if any, while the taxpayer is responsible for any losses? where do i sign up for this gravy train? forget that most of those toxic assets were loans given as a result of a fraud.
talk about corporate welfare. whoaaa!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Can you say double standard?
Or, triple standard?
Or some number to the power of X standard?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
|
And where is all this money (electronic zeros) coming from? Do they need to buy more printing presses? With high unemployment and all of the forclosures, who is paying taxes anymore? I reckon the safe place to be now is out of USD's with the coming of hyperinflation and currency devaluation. Amero?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (hiromj) And where is all this money (electronic zeros) coming from?
oh, that easy. from the returns on taxpayer funded hedge fund the federal government now runs.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
And ....
This week ... the US Treasury will spend Tuesday-Thursday ... printing up a bunch of worthless IOUs ...
Not to be outdone ... the Federal Reserve will be spending the same time period ... busily printing up a bunch of worthless money ...
And on Friday ... the Federal Reserve will take all of their worthless money ... and buy all of the Treasury's worthless IOUs ....
Now ... I don't see how anybody can't see that THIS will solve all of our problems ....
I'm hoping that it will be the catylst to go ahead and drive the USD index down through the 200 ema/daily .... and hopefully, into the 78 area ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"printing up a bunch of worthless IOUs ..."
------------------------------------------------------------
AIG changed its name to AIU.
Maybe IOU would have made more sense.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
|
Guest-1 |