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Swim? oportunity knocks? and an options question. Rate this Topic:
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scottnlena
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 10:30:20 AM

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The recent pair of large volume days (June/July)is interesting. Their report seems good ... but there could be something burried I missed.

Technicaly speaking though it would not suprise me to see this area of $9.51 hold. Iknow it's not a falling knife BUT I'm wondering if some sort of velocity/momentum trade is setting it's self up here.

this one is cheap and it seems as of late volitile. a 2 point target of the previous rally high might be a conservative target to set.

The question is, for curiosity and theory sake? ON a stock like this if a person bought 2000 shares what ae the odds of a clean fill on the exit if a limit is placed at $12.00 as a target. if 2000 is fine what would be the cut off point for that sort of quick velocity trade to be able to get in and out on cleanly, just as a hunch?

and finaly for you options traders, I want to paper trade this as an options trade. But i'm thinkig in terms of stock price. so 1) is 1-2 points movement in the stock enough to affect the options price so that a proffitable trade can be made and 2) what number of contracts can be expected to make a clean fill and exit on? If a person traded 100 contracts would that fill clenaly? what about 300?
BigBlock
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 1:40:51 PM
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Seems you have a little homework to do.
Apsll
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 2:23:58 PM

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Scott, Notice on my attached weekly chart that price is currently bouncing between support and resistance levels.

I would say that this would be a good buy above $12.00 when it breaks through that resistance level.

I know that the indicators look good for that to happen but it is pure speculation at this point. (IMO) to risky. (it might happen but do you want to risk money on that?)

And as far as options go what if price consolidates for some time within this narrow corridor?

Just food for thought buddy, let me know what you decide..

Apsll
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 2:24:48 PM

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scottnlena
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 6:30:51 PM

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Big block.. thanks again for you valueable and inspired help.

Tommy: I'm talking about getitng out around 12.00 or if it dosent look like it's gonna get there then jumping ship. This is still in a short term down trend but may be working on a bottom hereish. That bottom is probably not complete. Howevever i suspect that this is the bottom range of the trading range before it either moves further down or reverses.

I'm really leaning twards doing more of type of trding you were doing ... large shares get in and get out.
memorableproducts
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 8:49:26 PM

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QUOTE (scottnlena)
ON a stock like this if a person bought 2000 shares what ae the odds of a clean fill on the exit if a limit is placed at $12.00 as a target.


Scott, know one can answer a question like this.
It depends mainly on the trade size at that price in time.


Also, this stock will be in the money for Aug 10.00 calls. When this happens the stock price will tend to move dollar for dollar with the stock price as it goes up. But, time value will have a
limited tendency to pull the price in the opposite direction as the price rises.

Aug 10 calls on SWIM are thinly trade at about 625 open interest contracts, and zero volume today as far as I can tell.

memorableproducts
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 9:00:22 PM

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QUOTE (memorableproducts)
[quote=scottnlena]
It depends mainly on the trade size at that price in time.

...and the fills ahead of yours competing for that trade size.

mytreetop
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 9:06:25 PM
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mytreetop
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 9:08:04 PM
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Scott, options trading get very involved. Best advice is to take an options trading course. I've done very well with Spread Trade Systems.


Price of options is affected not only by the underlying stock price, but also implied volatility.
memorableproducts
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 9:33:20 PM

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QUOTE (mytreetop)
Scott, options trading get very involved.


You're right. It does get very involved when you choose to do spread trading as opposed to simply buying options.

Lots of complexity and many more things to think about in terms of strategies, delta, gamma, rho and all that Crap.

I believe in keeping it simple. Buy call options on stocks that have great appreciation expectancy or put options on stocks that have great depreciation expectance. And, don't risk more than you can afford to lose on any one trade. You'll also spend less in commission doing this type of directional trading and you may not have to wait as long to be profitable before exiting the trade. IMO.

By the way, Spread Trade Systems will train you how to spread trade for about $6000 or $7000 or you can get a few good books on the subject for about $60.

mytreetop
Posted : Monday, July 30, 2007 9:49:23 PM
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Go for it!
BigBlock
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 12:36:32 AM
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I have the feeling some times some folks here think this is a "hire for free advisor or wizard board".
Funny ah!
What is stopping you from finding the answers to your questions on your own.
Yes I wish too I had a magic wand I could shake everytime I come across an obstacle, but the reality is that even if I had it the first question that would come to mind would be - for how long will it last?
If you don't know options I advise you not to play them. If you take advice from others you are at the mercy of their mistakes, and it can be very costly.
Do as you wish.
Apsll
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 7:32:51 AM

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I'm really leaning towards doing more of type of trading you were doing ... large shares get in and get out.

Scott, this was my bread and butter style for some time, and I miss it at times, but it is not the most efficient way to make large profits. (I will help you if you wish).

Bigblock, this is a "hire for free advisor" forum. Everyone here knows that they are not geting advice from Allen Greenspan. They are getting advice from good traders who are glad to share their knowledge Freely.

You have made coments in the past about how irritated you are with people asking to many questions and not contributing anything. The purpose of this forum is for the inexperienced traders to learn from those with more experience. If your answer to them is - "do some homework" or "find the answeres for your self" then this forum would cease to exist. No one is looking for a magic wand, they are just looking for some advice (FREE). If all this is so irritating to you then why do you lurk in the shadows, only casually depositing your sarcastic remarks that are of no use to anyone. I asked you a while ago what contributions that you have made? And in usual form I recieved no aswer. Maybe I will have to pay you in order to get one.
moakhavi
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 12:02:53 PM
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Posts: 143
Tom:
Perhaps this is exactly what he is really looking for.Everyone here knows that this is a tough business. Even if one gets a clue about what security is recommended by others, that's only the first step in trading, and that's exactly what they offer and charge for it.They not even giving a fish to a person, only the bait.
I personally have learned a lot from you, tobydad,diceman and hohandy a lot even though I have not made any profit yet.Please keep your sharing spirit.
scottnlena
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 12:34:18 PM

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Bigblock, I'm not "playing options" i'm investigating them. I have read a few books on them.... and in general they are a bit intimidating and confusing and I loose paitence... then I start thinking about proffits that can be made and begin to reinvestigate. i pick up a little bit more each time. there are so many different aproaches that where to start is a bit confusing. I'm not lucky enough to be like you and get out of bed one morning and be a total market pro.

thanks for you remarks Tommy. That quick type of trading is what my comfort zone is ... currently. I think after this correction begins to put in some sort of bottom then I'll be more interested in holding longer.

I am interested in learning your "FAN" but in a bit. so far the "simple aproach" has been working out great. As I begin to get comfortable with it and trust it more i'm buying more and more shares getting closer to the full 2% risk.

The main questino I have is that of figuring out positions sizing. 2% aside what quantity of shares was the maximum that you felt you were able to get clean exits on ? As I recal a few of your trades were as much as 5000 shares?
bcraig73450
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 12:51:04 PM
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Bigblock, if you don’t like what you see in this forum, why do you keep coming back and making those snide remarks?

I have a slightly different take on the information presented here. I haven’t seen any advice here in the form of “This is the way to do it.” Instead I keep seeing “This is the way I do it. If this seems good to you, you are welcome to try it.” I believe this the spirit in which most of the experienced traders offer their views.

I have learned many things by watching the posts in this forum from money management techniques to the necessity to place a stop as soon as I enter a trade, among other things.

In addition I have made money on some of the posts of specific stocks with the reasons they look good. Some I traded, others I passed on. In both cases I learned something.

So Bigblock, when you have something constructive to offer I will happily consider it. Otherwise I’ll continue to ignore your posts.
Apsll
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 1:51:50 PM

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Well put Bcraig. And thank you Moe for your confidence in this forums ability to provide the usefull and free sharing of trading information.

Scott to answer your question, I must say that my methodes are unconventional to say the least. I think most here know that about me by now.

I never really followed a strict formula for the proper amount of shares that I would buy. It was more of a loose understanding of my limits.

Example: Penny stocks that were trading from $1.00 to $5.00 I would buy between 2,000 and 5,000 shares. This could be any where from $2,000 to $25,000 (representing a very small portion of my buying capital).

I think that it all depends on the size of ones capital base. A good rule might be to alocate 10 to 20 percent of your capital base to any given trade. A drawdown of 10 to 20 percent on that one trade would be no more than 4% of a loss on the entire portfolio.

As far as clean exits, You and I have had this discussion before. I recomend trading highly liquid stocks that are rich in volume. You will not get left holding the bag if your exit is timed properly. Low volume levels in any price stocks are just not a smart investment (IMO).

I hope that this helps.

Tommy21.


bcraig73450
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 4:47:24 PM
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As far as the size of our portfolios is concerned, I am the other side of the coin from Tommie and most of the others in the forum. From the size of my portfolio you might say I am a penny ante trader.

Many in the forum avoid the stocks I trade as too risky and beneath their dignity. While I realize that low price stocks can be (and in many cases are) more risky than higher price stocks, nevertheless they (in many cases) offer more potential.

I trade those stocks costing from one dollar to ten dollars per share. I put $500 into each trade which results in 500 shares of a one dollar stock or 50 shares of a ten dollar stock. I set my initial stop at nearby support such that my risk is no more than $50 (10 percent). Assuming that I have five stocks then my risk per stock is 50/(5*500) or two percent.

I am comfortable with my exit strategy now. Once the price rises to the point that it is showing a profit, I use trailing stops to protect the profit and let the stock tell me when to sell. (Thank Diceman, HaveNoCents , and Tommie when he was apsll.)

I am having trouble with entry points now. Any comments and suggestions will e welcome.
Apsll
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 5:10:05 PM

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Bcraig, you might find this thread interesting -

http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=23931

It discusses some entry point theories of mine.

Thank Diceman, HaveNoCents , and Tommie when he was apsll.)

I am not sure how to interpret "and Tommie when he was Apsll". Am I not still this person? I actually have given some thought about changing my sign in back to Apsll (over on the live chat, I am still listed as Apsll). I am sure that others will read this and if most want me to change my handle back to Apsll just say so and I will..

Tommy21/Apsll

gatman08
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 8:59:37 PM
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bcraig, don't transaction fees eat up any profit on a $500 trade? At even $6 per trade you lose 2% right off the bat.

I appreciate everyone's positive contributions to this forum. I also learn a lot from everyone's experiences but do not follow all recommendations. I am fairly new and thought I was making some progress until the past week. Now I know the importance of an exit strategy. Also that emotion does not belong in trading strategies.

Someday I hope to be able to contribute in a positive way to this forum. In the meantime, I only have questions and may ask for advice on occasion. Some of you must be doing this full time. Currently I can only trade base on daily close.

The cockiness and negativity of some do not belong here. These same ones have a lot to offer, please keep personalities out of this and share your knowledge.
memorableproducts
Posted : Tuesday, July 31, 2007 9:17:44 PM

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QUOTE (bcraig73450)
(Thank Diceman, HaveNoCents , and Tommie when he was apsll.)


I give up!

I'm never included in the list.

This will be my last post.



bcraig73450
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 12:20:51 AM
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Dont give up memorableoroducts. I got the help from those guys when I was starting. All of the discussions are valuale to me, even the ones I disagree with because they make me think aout the reasons I disagree.
bcraig73450
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 12:22:46 AM
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Yes getman, commissions can eat you alive, but if you can find a low commission broker it’s not too bad.

I have found several low cost brokers by searching with Google who have plans which cost $0.01 per share up to five hundred shares and $0.005 per share for all over five hundred with a minimum of $1.00. For an in and out commission of twice that.

Thus for a five dollar stock you would buy 100 shares for a commission of $1.00. Double that for a total transaction cost of $2.00. In this case if the price increases by two cents you are into a profit situation.

For a one dollar stock you would buy 500 shares for a commission of $5.00, double that for a total cost of $10.00. Once again a two cent price increase puts you into a profit.

Be aware that this is a bare bones situation and if you want any help you will have to pay extra.
Apsll
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 8:24:09 AM

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Memorableproducts, I can only speak for myself of course, but I have listed you, Diceman, and HNC as my influences on this forum. I was successfull before I came here a year and a half ago but you three have hepled me shape and change some of my ideas about good trading. You now seem to be using options and you appear to know what you are doing (and it is good that you are helping Scott with this). You and I have had our differences in the past but we worked through it and now I look foward to reading your posts. (We did stop talking about the peeny stocks, is there not more balance on this forum now)

Gatman08 you do not want the personalities to be taken off the table (I know that I am a charactor on this forum) you need these , somtimes colorfull discussions. It helps to show that there are many ways to be a success in the stock market, HNC and I used to go at each other quit a bit a while back, but the classic threads that were sponed from such disagreements & personality clashes were a work of art. HNC and I are now friendly with each other. I owe him a great deal for forcing me to re-think certain asspects of my trading.

Any way good luck

Tommy21
BigBlock
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 2:40:04 PM
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QUOTE (tommy21)
I'm really leaning towards doing more of type of trading you were doing ... large shares get in and get out.

Scott, this was my bread and butter style for some time, and I miss it at times, but it is not the most efficient way to make large profits. (I will help you if you wish).

Bigblock, this is a "hire for free advisor" forum. Everyone here knows that they are not geting advice from Allen Greenspan. They are getting advice from good traders who are glad to share their knowledge Freely.

You have made coments in the past about how irritated you are with people asking to many questions and not contributing anything. The purpose of this forum is for the inexperienced traders to learn from those with more experience. If your answer to them is - "do some homework" or "find the answeres for your self" then this forum would cease to exist. No one is looking for a magic wand, they are just looking for some advice (FREE). If all this is so irritating to you then why do you lurk in the shadows, only casually depositing your sarcastic remarks that are of no use to anyone. I asked you a while ago what contributions that you have made? And in usual form I recieved no aswer. Maybe I will have to pay you in order to get one.


Dear Tommy21, who says that this is a board for the inexperience? You? Is it because you are inexperienced and feel that way?
If you want to let folks think that this is a free advice board, that is fine, but there is nothing really FREE. As I said before - Do as you wish.
It is not irritating to me that people want free advice. It is actually amusing that anyone would put any kind of real money in the line based on someone elses free advice. As I said many times in the past you are the market. Playing this game is a loner's adventure. You must educate yourselve, make decisions yourself, and trade yourselve and live with your own mistakes and sucesses - not someone else's. If you have too many sources all with different opinions, and venues you will never set route. Just too conflicting, complex, and foreign. You need to read your own map, draw your own route, get in the car and drive.
I am not irritated by anything at all, just don't find interesting topics on this board as I used to in the past. And certainly I don't have the time or inclination anymore to take from my time to find the perfect option spread to give someone for free. I am sure they are old enought to do that themselve, and if they can't then they shouldn't be playing the game at all.
And I will leave it at that - sorry i have no more time the market is closing in about an hour and 20 min and I have to get ready for the closing.
I will get back here when I get a chance, I have some more to say about your nasty remarks.
Apsll
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 3:45:58 PM

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Bigblock, you will have to excuse me. I would have posted sooner, but it took a while for me to stop laughing.

When I first came to this forum I was pleasantly supprised that most advice that was being dispensed was pretty acurrate and useful stuff (different then most boards that I was visiting back then). There were a lot of questions from admitted newbies, and always a good response was proffered. I did not say that this forum is a board just for the inexperienced, it is just my observation during my time spent here, that this is what I see - The sharing of knowledge. It can be in the form of two good traders swaping ideas with each other or a newbie learning the pitfalls of a new style of trading.

I have made it clear that although I am not a trading guru, I do consider myself a knowlegeble trader with five years of successfull experience and about three years before that as a not so successfull one. I have been reading charts for over ten years. All this does not put me on par with a master trader, but I am not inexperienced at all. To close this part, I am ahead of schedule for a pace that I set for myself to retire early. It does not matter to me in any way if you do not view this as successfull, I am happy with it.

You are right nothing is free, everyone here knows that they have work to do after they get their answers. No one here is offering the holy grail (exept you), for a price of course.

It is actually amusing that anyone would put any kind of real money in the line based on someone elses free advice. As I said many times in the past you are the market. Playing this game is a loner's adventure. You must educate yourselve, make decisions yourself, and trade yourselve and live with your own mistakes and sucesses - not someone else's. If you have too many sources all with different opinions, and venues you will never set route. Just too conflicting, complex, and foreign. You need to read your own map, draw your own route, get in the car and drive

Bigblock we are not at the mercy of your inerpretation of what reality is. Every single person can do that without your help thank you. No one here cares that you do not have the time to help someone with option spreads for free. If you do not like this forum as you have stated above then move on.

Thats all for now folks.
memorableproducts
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 8:42:58 PM

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Bcraig and Aspll,

Thanks. But, are there only 2 of you. Are there no more takers?

Two is not enough for me to keep posting here, unfortunately.

If noonelse cares, I guess I will just fade into the sunset and become a read only member of this discussion board. But, thanks again for the sentiment -- even if you only number two.

Aspll, I wasn't paying attention. But, now that you mention it, I see you are right -- there isn't much talk about the pennies anymore. Why? What happened?

I wasn't saying you guys should not talk about them at all. I was just saying let that not be practically the only thing you talk about.

So what happen to the bottomfishers club anyway?
Just Curious.

Thanks Again,
MP
gatman08
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 8:53:17 PM
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Stick around, Memorable. I enjoy your posts.
bcraig73450
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 9:35:06 PM
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memorableproducts

Dont think that the few inexperienced people who post here are the only ones who are learning from the experienced ones. Look at how many are reading what is going on without sticking in their two cents worth.

Many times I will just lurk in the background without participating in the discussion. I am learning just the same but you dont know about it.
BigBlock
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 10:28:31 PM
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Memorableproduct as far as I am concern your input on this board is some of the most interesting. I wish more talented people as yourself would come out and participate instead of asking so many frivolous questions. Sometimes I feel like I have to maintain a conversation with someone with a 4th grade education - it is difficult to talk to folks about economic policy or technical analysis when they don't know the meaning of sumation ( ∑ ) or simply the elements of an option.
Stick around, it is hard to find someone now a days to debate in this board except for a few who just debate plain nonsense or attack the persons instead of the topic.
jayrama
Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2007 11:12:54 PM
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Posts: 91
Bigblock: I am probably in 3rd grade, honestly I believe in the questions I ask, may look frivilous to any onlooker or educated one, and it must be true for novices who are looking for opportunities to enhance thier knowledge and trade / invest successfully. If you are in Ph.D level and would like discuss at that level find some other forum. I am learning from the experience of several individuals, who have been listed already, who are willing to teach and share their wisdom and very generous with their time to respond -- Jay ( By the way, I have a Ph.D in Physics!)
BigBlock
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 1:02:04 AM
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Well Jay, if you are in 3rd grade then don't make it harder on me.
If you are in the ph.D arena then please feel free to enlighten us, and may be bring something interesting up for discussion.
allenbary
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 2:44:40 PM
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Posts: 238
bcraig73450 , "I am having trouble with entry points now. Any comments and suggestions will be welcome." If you trade short term I cant help you since I do not. However if you swing trade or hold for a week to a month or so what I have to say might be usefull. Entry is the least important. focus on money management, picking the right stocks and exiting a position. If you enter a trade at 10.00, 10.50 or 9.50, What does it matter if the stock is trading at 20.00 in a week? just try to be consistant in the way you enter. EX: if you swing trade and you allways enter when STOC crosses below 20 and you notice a pattern of getting in a little early. you may switch to entering when STOC crosses up 20. So be consistant and it will be easyer to see what changes to make to be more profitable. AB
bcraig73450
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 5:20:51 PM
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The three educational levels and their meanings are

BS --- every one knows what this means
MS --- more of the same
PhD -- piled higher and deeper

scottnlena
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 8:37:56 PM

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Jayrama
My wife is a PHD in philosophy. As such I'm dragged to allot to faculty family functions. At one such function I met one of the math professors and we got to talking and he said that several of his students and collegues that were very math (particularily statistical math) stron wen't on to do very well on wallstreet and as investors. Aparently the ones that had the strong math skills AND were gamblers have some sort of combination that seems to really work for those trying to squeeze money from the markets.

By the way I have a PHD in the school of hard knocks, a masters in the academy of getting the shit kicked out of me and a certificate from the academy of raw deals it dosent really make a big difference people are proffitable in many idfferent ways. My aproach is simple... but many people take a very accademic aproach to the market.
scottnlena
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 8:40:11 PM

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Oh aparently it was "oportunity knocks" ... got in at $10.48. post market numbers went as high as $13.00 and then slid back smoe while I was scrambling to reconfigure my account to take after hours orders. I'll take it tomorrow, we may see it surge up even further.
memorableproducts
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 10:03:13 PM

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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Memorableproduct as far as I am concern your input on this board is some of the most interesting. I wish more talented people as yourself would come out and participate.


Wow, talented huh?
Well thanks for the compliment BB.

You could be a little nicer to everyonelse
though don't you think? Don't be so hard
on everybody.

And bcraig...
I hardly think that someone with over 400 post is lurking in the shadows but I get your point and I agree.

By the way, that PHD joke you told is at least 30 years old. My old high school English teacher who had an MS degree at the time told us that one.

bcraig73450
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 11:27:13 PM
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It's even older, memorabltproduct. I first heard it in 19522 when I got my BS.
bcraig73450
Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2007 11:31:36 PM
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That's 1952 not 19522. I;v got to teach this computer to type.
Apsll
Posted : Friday, August 03, 2007 8:04:45 AM

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Memorableproducts, You see, there are more than two of us out there that appreciate your input. The bottom feeders club has been disbanded for some time. I resigned a couple of months ago (due to input from you, Diceman, and HNC), and Tobydad has taken a leave of absence. I think that the birth of the bottom feeders club started in a classic thread (that I would like to find) that involved Tobydad, Bcraig, and myself. I am sure that when Toby dad returns you might see some more bottom feeding... Please stick around I would soon like to ask you for some input as I am gearing up for the next rally..

I wish more talented people as yourself would come out and participate instead of asking so many frivolous questions. Sometimes I feel like I have to maintain a conversation with someone with a 4th grade education - it is difficult to talk to folks about economic policy or technical analysis when they don't know the meaning of sumation ( ∑ ) or simply the elements of an option.



Bigblock, could you please give us all a break, what did we all do to deserve someone like you. I have never seen any Technical analysis spew from your keyboard, nor have I read any threads where you are conversing with any one (no one here will give you the time of day). You do not have to be completely in tune with all the economic policies around the world to be a success in the markets, and although there are few here that might enjoy doing so, most are not.

It is just my opinion of course, but at this time, on this forum, most participants are into short-term technical analysis with very little emphasis given to world economics (I do think that you should pay some attention to these things along with the health of the indexes). I guess that what I am trying to say is that at this time you are cutting against the grain of the current participants of this forum. Instead of trying to force your point of view only, why don’t you take your bag of tricks elsewhere?
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