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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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A purely technical indication ... purportedly with a 92% accuracy rate ...
There has been a lot of chatter about it lately ... cnbc, Mark Hulbert, etc ...
Apparently it indicated in June ...
What are your thoughts ?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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So the analogy is that markets are slowly coming in for soft landing but then explode to downside in disastrous fashion? Thoughts are not pleasant
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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What is the Hindenburg omen? never herd of it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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QUOTE (scottnlena) What is the Hindenburg omen? never herd of it.
Go to investopedia dot com. I just read the definition and, well, read it yourself, it ain't pretty:)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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the omen was actually giving signals in 2007.
i guess you could say the signals were accurate.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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The signal is based on new highs and new lows, and is cheerfully called a Hindenburg (the actual name given to it by Kennedy Gammage is the Hindenburg Omen but that strikes me as far too, well, ominous, because it's certainly not a sufficient condition for a market decline). It's a relatively unusual event that has often preceded fairly substantial market declines with a fairly short lead time (usually within 30-60 days, including declines in 1987, 1990, 1998, 2000 and 2001), but has sometimes proved to be meaningless or insignificant as well (such as a cluster of signals in September 2005, among others).
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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The basic elements are 1) the market is in a rising trend, defined as the NYSE Composite being above its 10-week average, 2) both daily new highs and new lows exceed 2.2% of issues traded, and 3) the McClellan Oscillator is negative meaning that market breadth as measured by advances and declines is relatively weak (there's some dispute, which I will not join, as to whether the Oscillator has to be negative that day or turn negative later). Peter Eliades added a couple of other conditions to eliminate signals occurring in clearly strong markets: 4) new highs can't exceed new lows by more than 2-to-1, and 5) 2 or more signals occur within about a month (he uses 36 days) of each other.
Forgot paragraph two
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Oh, that is interesting. how is that constructed as an indicator in blocks. I guess I could just write the scans for new MAXH52 highs and new MINL52 lows, and then monitor them as a ratio of each other in excel.
Beyon the 2 paragraph thing in Investopedia where was the information that it was signaling in October? Just FYI moneystream on the SP-500 was IMO signaling somethnig pretty severe before then.. BUT I miss understood it.
how does it work for bottoms?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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I would think the normal indicators still work, VIX, high volumes to the downside, PCR etc
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