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Profile: bknight
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User Name: bknight
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Statistics
Joined: Sunday, December 19, 2004
Last Visit: Thursday, August 15, 2013 10:28:50 PM
Number of Posts: 415
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Last 10 Posts
Topic: Hindenburg Omen
Posted: Thursday, August 15, 2013 10:01:06 PM

As funnymoney said it has been around for awhile.  I have a text document that is dated early 2006, but it was probably around before this.

Diceman could you provide a link to the T2105 indicator, I couldn't find it.

QUOTE (ben2k9)
I have a few problems with this so-called Hindenberg Omen. 

First, no one had EVER even heard of this until 2 weeks ago, now an hour doesn't pass where I don't read about this all over the main stream financial press.  I'm sure my dad, who knows zero about investing, is going to call me up to ask me about it. 

Secondly, the signal is triggered when a certain number of stocks reach new highs, while a certain number reach new lows.  This go around, most of the "stocks" reaching new highs, are actually closed-end fixed income funds.  Hardly a stock, per se.  Extracting these from the tally, and you don't have the conditions present to trigger the signal.

Third, the name HIndenberg Omen is just so over-the-top..I find it ridiculous. [this third point is more qualitative, I guess you could say]

The market is like a combination lock that changes the code every time.  Figuring out what indicators did what in the past can sometimes be useful, but in my experience by the time the code is broken and wise guys try to use it, the market has already changed the combination.


 

Topic: MACD divergence scanner
Posted: Saturday, January 05, 2013 9:49:57 AM

With the above thoughts how could one write a pcf for MACD 5 days ago be GT MACD 22 days ago with low price 5 days ago LT low 22 days ago?  The 5 and 22 are just examples, as I'm really trying to find those divergences from market low to market low and what ever those specific intervals would be.

Topic: Old PCF but can't remember who developed it or its meaning
Posted: Sunday, June 20, 2010 9:14:56 AM
I was cleaning up charts this morning and came upon a custom indicator:

(((STOC13.3 <= 20)) AND ((STOC13.3.1 < STOC13.3)) AND (C <= ( (MAXH15 - MINL30) * .618 + MINL30) AND C >= ((MAXH15 - MINL30) * .382 + MINL30) AND MAXH15 = MAXH30 AND MINL15 > MINL30)) * ((C - MINL30) / ( MINL30 - MAXH15))

There was another with < and > reversed.  I can't remember who developed it and what was the expected outcome?

Any help from anyone on this one?
Topic: This Market
Posted: Sunday, October 18, 2009 9:43:37 PM
Well I'm up ony 34% off the bottom, although I started going into cash in Jul (too early).  The rally MAY BE BETTER than 2003, but it hasn't even covered 50% of the decline, yet.
Topic: Ten Year Cycles Or Not?
Posted: Monday, August 17, 2009 10:59:26 AM
It looks like the earlier days were more negative for the 0 years.  Thanks for the extension of the data.  Still it doesn't appear that Sir Ten Year Cycle observations don't all hold over a longer time frame.
Topic: Big drop possible
Posted: Monday, August 17, 2009 10:54:57 AM
Hanging close to those levels, might back and fill for the remainder of the day.  These misdirections with no follow through are killing me.
Topic: DJ-30 New Video Analysis! as of Aug 14th 2009 data by Signaltap
Posted: Monday, August 17, 2009 10:51:38 AM
Nice video, but speak a lot louder next time.  My volume was at 100% and I could barely hear you.
Topic: Dragon developing
Posted: Sunday, August 16, 2009 1:37:35 PM
QUOTE (davidjohnhall)
Hi dp,

As the "creator" of the dragon, I must point out that your statement "Dragon pattern is cup and handle pattern" is just a little innacurate.  As much as I like people to be right, I must point this out. 

First, the "Dragon" is first and foremost a chart layout, nothing more.  Second, I use the Dragon layout to find triangles and pennants -- when these patterns are found using a certain layout, they remind me of Chinese parade dragons.  Fun for me.  Stressful for some aparently. 

Triangles and pennants are continuation patterns.  Cup and handle patterns are something all together different.  While the pennants on some "Dragon" formations can be the right hand side of the cup and handle formation, many times they are not.

As for "hunting the dragons" I do so on a daily basis.   You are correct, however, that FNM and FRE do not meet my original criteria -- however -- as the "dragon" is not a pattern, other traders are free to see it and find it where they will.  I am not so narrow minded to believe that it can only live on thorugh my eyes.

For your future reference, here are a few classic "Dragons" as I look for them, which can CURRENTLY be found flying around the market.











Nice little dragons, aka, triangles, penants, even handle oin cup and handle -- heck -- I don't care what you call them -- to me they are glorious, flame throwing, profit giving Dragons. 

David John Hall



I like the first three and maybe the fourth.  What characteristics of NSPH seems favorable to you?  Looks like it closed towards the bottom of the days trading range and closed ouside the 10 day linear trend line?
Topic: Ten Year Cycles Or Not?
Posted: Saturday, August 15, 2009 9:23:44 PM

The note of 14 Aug 09 got me to thinking and since I have a database of DJIA closing back to 1928, I thought I would put in a little time and number crunching.

DW:
Sir Ten-Year Cycle brings us a set of observations that are certainly interesting and that could be quite useful. Of course, we all have to discover that for ourselves. You should check the Dow Jones Industrial Average for at least five decades ..... 

I choose two four decade comparisons since I have 80 years of data.  But all the data is visible for you to check.  My data began in 1928, so I disregarded 1929 in the comparisons.

Sir Ten Year Cycle:
To follow up on Sir DataMiner's article on cycles, I observe something that has remained uncannily true in my lifetime. It is the behavior of the 10-year cycle.

The behavior can be approximated to a form of the 3 wave cycle model in both directions, (waves 1 & 3 being with the direction of the primary trend, wave 2 being the correction to that), I note them in brackets after each year's comment. With a few months variation, sometimes it goes like this:

YEAR ending in...

0 - Deeply depressing mood disappointments failing economy & businesses, unemployment, etc. (Wave 3 down.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1930

164.58

248.48

-83.9

-33.77%

 

 

12/31/1940

131.13

149.99

-18.86

-12.57%

 

 

12/29/1950

235.42

200.52

34.9

17.40%

 

 

12/30/1960

615.89

679.36

-63.47

-9.34%

 

 

12/31/1970

838.92

800.36

38.56

4.82%

 

 

12/31/1980

963.99

838.74

125.25

14.93%

 

 

12/31/1990

2633.66

2753.2

-119.54

-4.34%

3 Declines

2 Declines

12/29/2000

10787.99

11497.12

-709.13

-6.17%

1 Advances

2 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-34%-+17%

-6%-+15%


I don't see a down bias although the first period had more significant declines.

1 - More of the same but worse. (Wave 3 down.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1931

77.90

164.58

-86.68

-52.67%

 

 

12/31/1941

110.96

131.13

-20.17

-15.38%

 

 

12/31/1951

269.23

235.42

33.81

14.36%

 

 

12/29/1961

731.14

615.89

115.25

18.71%

 

 

12/31/1971

890.20

838.92

51.28

6.11%

 

 

12/31/1981

875.00

963.99

-88.99

-9.23%

 

 

12/31/1991

3168.83

2633.66

535.17

20.32%

2 Declines

2 Declines

12/31/2001

10021.57

10787.99

-766.42

-7.10%

2 Advances

2 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-53%-+19%

-9%-+20%


I don't see a down bias although the first period had more significant declines.

2 - Amidst a far worse mood, the funds actually bottom out as do prices. However people are badly burned out by the doom & gloom. Few spot it & even fewer trust it. This is the actual market bottom in many assets amid a crisis. (Wave 3 down, turning into Wave 1 up.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/30/1932

60.26

77.9

-17.64

-22.64%

 

 

12/31/1942

119.40

110.96

8.44

7.61%

 

 

12/31/1952

291.90

269.23

22.67

8.42%

 

 

12/31/1962

652.10

731.14

-79.04

-10.81%

 

 

12/29/1972

1020.02

890.2

129.82

14.58%

 

 

12/31/1982

1046.54

875

171.54

19.60%

 

 

12/31/1992

3301.11

3168.83

132.28

4.17%

2 Declines

1 Declines

12/31/2002

8341.63

10021.57

-1679.94

-16.76%

2 Advances

3 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-23%-+8%

-17%-+20%


I do see an up bias with some down years.

3 - Quietly recovering. Still lots of distrust & very little "feel-good" around. (Wave 1 up.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/29/1933

98.67

60.26

38.41

63.74%

 

 

12/31/1943

135.89

119.4

16.49

13.81%

 

 

12/31/1953

280.90

291.9

-11

-3.77%

 

 

12/31/1963

762.95

652.1

110.85

17.00%

 

 

12/31/1973

850.86

1020.02

-169.16

-16.58%

 

 

12/30/1983

1258.64

1046.54

212.1

20.27%

 

 

12/31/1993

3754.09

3301.11

452.98

13.72%

1 Declines

1 Declines

12/31/2003

10453.92

8341.63

2112.29

25.32%

3 Advances

3 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-4%-+64%

-17%-+25%


An advancing bias for sure.

4 - Have things really been going UP for the past 1 to 2 years? Quick, buy something!  (Wave 1 up.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1934

104.04

98.67

5.37

5.44%

 

 

12/29/1944

151.93

135.89

16.04

11.80%

 

 

12/31/1954

404.39

280.9

123.49

43.96%

 

 

12/31/1964

874.13

762.95

111.18

14.57%

 

 

12/31/1974

616.24

850.86

-234.62

-27.57%

 

 

12/31/1984

1211.57

1258.64

-47.07

-3.74%

 

 

12/30/1994

3834.44

3754.09

80.35

2.14%

0 Declines

2 Declines

12/31/2004

10783.01

10453.92

329.09

3.15%

4 Advances

2 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

5%-+44%

-28%-+3%


An up bias in the early period with a unchanged to slightly downward bias in the later period.  If the 70 data were removed this would be an advancing group also.

5 - Amid a modest dip & sometimes mild panic that turns into consolidation. (Wave 2 correction [sideways / up] gives way to the strongest wave--wave 3 up.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1935

144.13

104.04

40.09

38.53%

 

 

12/31/1945

192.91

151.93

40.98

26.97%

 

 

12/30/1955

488.40

404.39

84.01

20.77%

 

 

12/31/1965

969.26

874.13

95.13

10.88%

 

 

12/31/1975

852.41

616.24

236.17

38.32%

 

 

12/31/1985

1546.67

1211.57

335.1

27.66%

 

 

12/29/1995

5117.12

3834.44

1282.68

33.45%

0 Declines

1 Declines

12/30/2005

10717.50

10783.01

-65.51

-0.61%

4 Advances

3 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

11%-+39%

-1%-+38%


Nice upward bias with only one year slightly negative.

6 - Now things are really getting hot. Prices are rising rapidly. The media is excited, etc. However, the astute observer sees that, under the hood, cracks are beginning to appear. Tops are being built, etc. (Wave 3 up.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1936

179.90

144.13

35.77

24.82%

 

 

12/31/1946

177.20

192.91

-15.71

-8.14%

 

 

12/31/1956

499.47

488.4

11.07

2.27%

 

 

12/30/1966

785.69

969.26

-183.57

-18.94%

 

 

12/31/1976

1004.65

852.41

152.24

17.86%

 

 

12/31/1986

1895.95

1546.67

349.28

22.58%

 

 

12/31/1996

6448.27

5117.12

1331.15

26.01%

2 Declines

0 Declines

12/29/2006

12463.15

10717.5

1745.65

16.29%

2 Advances

4 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-19%-+25%

16%-+26%


More advancing years and the later period had all advancers.  Since this work doesn't look at individual stocks, one has to look at patterns that developed during the year.

7 - The public thinks things are never going down again, but in mid-year markets top out &, towards the end, give a violent warning of their wrath to come. (Wave 3 up gives way to wave 1 down.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1937

120.85

179.9

-59.05

-32.82%

 

 

12/31/1947

181.16

177.2

3.96

2.23%

 

 

12/31/1957

435.69

499.47

-63.78

-12.77%

 

 

12/29/1967

905.11

785.69

119.42

15.20%

 

 

12/30/1977

831.17

1004.65

-173.48

-17.27%

 

 

12/31/1987

1938.83

1895.95

42.88

2.26%

 

 

12/31/1997

7908.25

6448.27

1459.98

22.64%

2 Declines

1 Declines

12/31/2007

13264.82

12463.15

801.67

6.43%

2 Advances

3 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-33%-+15%

-17%-+23%


Statistically neutral to upward, but with recent memory (87 and 2007) markets peaked mid year, 97 rose until mid year and then traded down and up in two cycles.

8 - Armageddon! (Wave 1 down.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1928

300.00

 

 

 

 

 

12/30/1938

154.36

120.85

33.51

27.73%

 

 

12/31/1948

177.30

181.16

-3.86

-2.13%

 

 

12/31/1958

583.65

435.69

147.96

33.96%

 

 

12/31/1968

943.75

905.11

38.64

4.27%

 

 

12/29/1978

805.01

831.17

-26.16

-3.15%

 

 

12/30/1988

2168.57

1938.83

229.74

11.85%

 

 

12/31/1998

9181.43

7908.25

1273.18

16.10%

1 Declines

2 Declines

12/31/2008

8776.39

13264.82

-4488.43

-33.84%

3 Advances

2 Advances

 

 

 

 

 

-2%-+34%

-34%-+16%


This doesn't look like Armageddon to me, if you take out 2008 this year has an upward bias..

9 - Huge relief bounce that eventually rolls over, setting up for the disappointment of a long winter of years ending in 0, 1 & 2. Media is excited, disaster has been averted, depression / recession, etc. is now over. Buy! Buy! Buy! Supposedly this is the year that markets and the economy are finally coming back. Or is it? (Huge wave 2 correction, turning into wave 3 down. Bigger trend still firmly down.)

Trade Date

Close

Prior Close

Change

Percent Change

30's-60's Period Range

70's-20's Period Range

12/31/1929

248.48

300

-51.52

-17.17%

 

 

12/29/1939

149.99

154.36

-4.37

-2.83%

 

 

12/30/1949

200.52

177.3

23.22

13.10%

 

 

12/31/1959

679.36

583.65

95.71

16.40%

 

 

12/31/1969

800.36

943.75

-143.39

-15.19%

 

 

12/31/1979

838.74

805.01

33.73

4.19%

 

 

12/29/1989

2753.20

2168.57

584.63

26.96%

 

 

12/31/1999

11497.12

9181.43

2315.69

25.22%

2 Declines

0 Declines ?

8/14/2009

9321.40

8776.39

545.01

6.21%

2 Advances

4 Advances ?

 

 

 

 

 

-15%-+16%

4%-+27%


I didn't check whether there was a relief rally during the year, but excluding this year the Dow had an upward bias.

I'm NOT picking at the Sir Ten Year Cycle's observations, just giving the year end numbers allowing you to formulate your own conclusion to the theory.

Topic: My Broker or Me?
Posted: Wednesday, August 12, 2009 4:21:07 PM
QUOTE (azureflames)
It was a GTC order and yes, that one took a profit (wish I could say the same about all my picks yesterday).  It was filled at 9:31:20 so it was during market hours.  I looked at the ticks on Worden and it never spiked to the $2.83 price.  One thing I forgot to mention is that it was filled at $2.66 even though I have a BUY stop at $2.83 (good for me). 

The whole thing just seemed weird and the broker did not have a very clear answer.  Maybe it was a slip up, these things happen.  This just shook me a little in that money management is huge and this kind of has me reeling (even though I got some profit on this one.... who knows about the next).

I heard tobydad mention "conditional buy order" on previous posts.  Is there any difference between the aforementioned and a buy stop?

Lots of thanks!!!


Some but not all stop orders are triggered by the bid/ask unless you specifically make it a stop on trade.  That has happened to me a couple of times, getting burned each time.  So when I'm watchin the maket I have a market order in position and an alert to the trades(not bid/ask) and put it in IF the target is hit.