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Joined: 4/18/2005
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you're gonna smack me. could you please send me the link to your discussion of the bounce strategy you have been talking about dong so well with.
It's been hectic and I keep getting into it and then need to set it aside. I thought I flagged the page in my favorites but I guess not. My mother in law is staying with us for a bit and dosent speak much english so my interuptions are ceaseless.. and the office is cleared for her to sleep in so I'm freezing my ass in the basement. I want to look into some more. I'll play insomnia tonight and do it that way... when everyone else is asleep. Then I can get things done.
The aerobic exercise has been great... up the stairs down the stairs up the stairs down the stairs .. feed the baby, change the baby, answer the phone. Explain or use "Mime to transelate something" back down the stairs.. Back up stairs with language conversion dictionary. Not that I want to spend the whole day in front of the computer... but long enough in one clip to get something signifficant done.
And if the Borak Obamma campaign calls me one more time betwen now and the damned election I'm voting republican! D*$^K HEAD !
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Scott, I have a revised version so I will just start fresh. I have been getting a lot of flack lately that this approach will not work in a Bear market, however I believe, after extensive testing with this very template durring the last Bear market on many, many charts, that it will.
Top window - 140 day Linear regresion line on price.
Middle window - Volume bars and this percent true indicator
(c>o)and(c>(c1*1.05))and(c>avgh5)and(v>(v1*1.05))
Bottom window - TSV 9 Exponential and this percent true indicator
(tsv9>tsv9.1)and(tsv9.1>tsv9.2)and(tsv9.2<tsv9.3)
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Joined: 9/7/2005
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Apsll,
I was wondering what your typical hold time is? Do you have min price/vol requirements? Thanks, Winfield
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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During the bear market you can expect most charts to look like the one above.
Step one is to sort a watchlist of your own creation for a negative slope on the Linear regression line.
Step two sort those candidates by the indicator in the middle window and keep only those charts that meet the condition in a seperate watch list from the first.
Step three now sort the first watchlist with just the negative slope (LR) charts by the bottom window indicator adding only the charts that meet this condition to the second watchlist contaning the results from the middle window indicator.
You should now have a watchlist of charts that contain a mix from the results of both percent true indicators. you could have up to one hundred charts to go through one at a time (a lot easier than 7,000 charts).
This is a basic design, I would not confuse yourself by adding anymore indicators as they will be laging. The whole idea of a bounce is a quick one or two day in and out proceedure, most other indicators will not be of much help here, again they move to slowly.
It will greatly help and is almost neccasary to have a live streaming ticker to watch the realtime price quotes as you may need to day trade some of these.
Watchout for false starts and whip-saw. And as always use good money/risk managment.
This is my system and I am not hailing it as the holly grail. I am currently making it work. I do not know if you will have the same results as I, as most systems are built using ones own personality. Maybe that is why it is working for me..
Good luck
Apsll.
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Winfieldh, My price range is $1.50 to $25.00 and here is my Volume filter
(V > 700) AND (V1 > 700) AND (AVGV100 > 3500)
It also helps to monitor Institutional support...
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I think that your chances of success will increase if you know how to interpret candlesticks and chart patterns as well as reversal patterns. The main ingredient here is Volume action and how it affects price action...
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Joined: 9/7/2005
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What are your thoughts on VPHM? It looks like it might be a similar candidate. It came through a scan the other night and has held nicely in this market. I haven't looked to see the reason for the August plummet, but the little pullback here is to the first fib retrace and looks like its getting to a good entry point, 9.16-9.42.
Thanks, W
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Very good example Winfieldh the indicators and a buy signal hit on 1/09/2008 you should have sold on 1/14/2008.
You are a quick study.
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[QUOTE=Apsll]Scott, I have a revised version so I will just start fresh. I have been getting a lot of flack lately that this approach will not work in a Bear market, however I believe, after extensive testing with this very template durring the last Bear market on many, many charts, that it will.
Thanks.. don't let "Flack" from others affect your trading.. if it works for you it works for you.. the proof is in the pudding.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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How are you entering these? stoplimit above price ? Limit order at Close?
am I understanding that you are looking for the situation when both those custom conditions are true at the same time? or is it enough that they happen in close proximity?
Example:
SGMO on 11/28 the top condition becomes true and there was a true for the botom just prior and just after? Exit In my mind would be a stop under the doji of 11.30 and a limit slightly above close.. because of the large range day ... you may get lucky and get out a tad higher or that cuts potential proffits. I wouldn't think it would matter on a 1-3 day hold.
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Joined: 9/25/2007
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This looks interesting Apsll ...
Perhaps you would consider starting a thread on it whereby we could follow your use of the system along with you through a few future trades as you make them ... from canidate selection, entry, stop placement, and exit ....
I can't speak for everyone ... but it's a lot more fun for me to be in a trade with someone ... even if it's only in spirit ...
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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apsll,
don't want to muddy the waters of your thread here but I thought I'd offer this PCF as you instructed to "...sort a watchlist of your own creation...". So I hope I'm not messing up the discussion.
Anyway, after looking through what I think you may be doing here, I thought this might be helpful in finding the kind of stocks you might be looking for.
C250 < AVGC200.250 AND C150 < AVGC200.150 AND C50 < AVGC200.50 AND C5 > AVGC200.5 AND C4 > AVGC200.4 AND C3 > AVGC200.3 AND C2 > AVGC200.2 AND C1 > AVGC200.1 AND C > AVGC200
This does a pretty nice job of finding stocks that are in a new uptrend.
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Scott, How I have been entering my final candidates is by putting price on a live streamer and checking the pre-market futures (not neccassarily a deal breaker if negative). If the volume pushes price over the previous days high then I will enter (on strong volume). In most casses I will use a little bit lower than the previous days low as a stop loss. If I see price droping and I get nervous I will open up bigcharts.com and look for Intra-day support levels. And no both conditions do not have to be met on the same day. The middle window indicator is the one that is of greater import since it is a dirrect product of the volume action. The TSV indicator in the bottom window lends more value to the pick. The final watchlist of 80 to100 stocks gives me charts to look at that a lot of the work has been done for me and now I am not just looking at the indicators. I am looking for good pattern formations, reversal patterns, candlestick formations that I have seen work in the past.
Tobydad, always nice to hear from you. I tested your formula and it is not what I am looking for sorry. I am not looking for a change in the trend. To catch a two or three day event, trend indicators are just to slow and will creat whip-saw. I am simply looking for a bounce in a clear down trend, sort of the opposite of swingtrading. Just to let you know, it was your set-up that inspired the TSV indicator in the bottom window.
Realitycheck, Your idea sounds like a good one I just might do that, to start a thread Bounce Trading. Although, - it is not well recieved at this time, so maybe not.
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Joined: 12/27/2005
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Hi,
I have a couple of questions. What are your settings for the top window LR besides 140 bar period?
For entry, I didn't recognize the candle pattern for entry.
For exit (candles, I got what else you said) I think its a dark cloud cover or does close below previous day close work?
BTW: Thanks for the discussion. It makes a lot of sense.
Craig.
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Hicraig3, There are no other settings for the LR 140 that is it, You enter on strong volume if price rises above the previous days high. But you also have to use a good stop and money management.
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Why is it not well recieved? I haven't seen but one critic and that critic would criticize you if you no matter what you did. I think it would be well recieved.
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QUOTE (scottnlena) I think it would be well recieved.
I agree .... and I'd love to see more ...
But ... I'm still not sure that I understand the concept ...
From earlier postings, I was under the impression that we were talking about something that worked independently of the prevailing market trend ...
Today's postings lead me to beleive that it is highly dependent ... and that you must be very nimble and be ready to jump out on a moment's notice if the overall market decides to resume it's prevailing trend ...
Unfortunately ... I'm not currently in a positon where I can do nothing but watch the computer for 7 hours/day ... so trade lives of 15-30 minutes won't really work for me ...
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Joined: 6/22/2005
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ASPLL Very nice percent true indicator I only scan stocks over 200k avg 90 days so that reduced the universe but found some very nice picks I then added bollinger bands tracking tsv34 and was able to reduce that number down and here they are IRBT CALM WIND SEE ANAD FCS HOTT your thoughts or anyone else would be appreciated
IWANAPHISH
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Iwanaphish, you have a very good list here. You are among the few that are not having any problems with understanding the system. There are just two that are a little off the point.
CALM - seems to be in an over-all uptrend (however you are using the indicators propperly and it still shows bounce potential)
IRBT - is more of a stock trying to break free from a bottom formation (again however your use of the indicators is right on target). I might buy some of this above $20.00
Good job and well done.
(IMO)
Apsll.
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QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (scottnlena) I think it would be well recieved.
I agree .... and I'd love to see more ...
But ... I'm still not sure that I understand the concept ...
From earlier postings, I was under the impression that we were talking about something that worked independently of the prevailing market trend ...
Today's postings lead me to beleive that it is highly dependent ... and that you must be very nimble and be ready to jump out on a moment's notice if the overall market decides to resume it's prevailing trend ...
Unfortunately ... I'm not currently in a positon where I can do nothing but watch the computer for 7 hours/day ... so trade lives of 15-30 minutes won't really work for me ...
Well I think it was clear that you needed to be able to be quick on your feet. I understand that it's not alwasye possible to sit by themarket. There are alternatives.. Tight limit target prices... auto trailing stops things of that nature. Logicaly speaking though GENERALY a counter trade trend caries more risk, you get into negative divergences and oversold market conditions and such and so forth that make it ripe for a general market bounce and ease some of that risk.. .Or IMO shift it back to the other extreme.
I've seen allot of people that were EXCELLENT at something but couldn't pinpoint exactly what it was they did with clarity for other people. I worked as an ADT alarm sales guy once.. and the top performer mades over 100K a year selling alarms door to door in bad neighborhoods. Couldn't articulate a sentance. Didn't know the product and often talked his way out of premium package sales but he STILL out performed the rest of the group combined in basic package sales. He had no idea what he did differently than any of us.
However in this case it's fairly clear to me anyway what's going on... take a long slow look at the custom PCF's and think about their logical arguments. Simply in the end what were looking for is situations of oversold stocks with some upside pressure that isn't clearly obvious at first glance. This shows up through price action and Volume... it's a kinda knit Picky thing and it's tight and finicky becasue you are dealing with a small group of candles... keeping the broader group in mind and looking for a realy great entry on a potentialy small counter reaction to the main market energy, Accepting that the entry could be false and moving quickly to exit if it is. There is Zero room for holding and hopeing. These picks don't need much "Room" to do their thing... they will do what they are needed to do or they are dumped.
at least that is my understanding of it.
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QUOTE (iwanaphish) ASPLL Very nice percent true indicator I only scan stocks over 200k avg 90 days so that reduced the universe but found some very nice picks I then added bollinger bands tracking tsv34 and was able to reduce that number down and here they are IRBT CALM WIND SEE ANAD FCS HOTT your thoughts or anyone else would be appreciated
IWANAPHISH
WOW nice list...
IRBT I traded recently.. how did I miss this move ? ? CALM and IRBT really caught my attention... admittedly they are a bit off topic... but on the microcosm they do fit... and most of my trdes are really short term anyway. I've moved most of these to a watchlist.
thanks.
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APSLL
these may be a bit off base... becaue I din't go through your process to find them but rather checked what came up on a preexisting scan of mine against your template and I'm curious how you view them in this context.
LAB
CHTT
MVL
KTC - - - probably the least aplicable next to DRYS due to the mid indicator not haveing fired off recently.
DRYS
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APSLL
How do you tell that the volume is high before entering the trade?
Does your streamer have a colomn that compares volume to the yesterday's one for the current moment (for example, compares volume at 10:15 am)?
Or you have to watch streaming charts covering 2 days to compare volume to the yesterday morning?
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I think HOC could bounce here as well BUT there is no participation of the Main PCF.
I think APSLL you are about to have a really good month.. I'm coming across more and more attractive bounce patterns ...what every methods I use.
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Scott, all look good to me (They have some room to bounce before resistance levels are reached. You must buy enogh shares to make it worth your time). That is one of the issues that I have not mentioned that is important. If you buy a lot of shares then the stock can still yeild good profits on even small gains... You are correct I do not like KTC ( to many gaps, I do not like this kind of price action ).
Mmlmedv, I have my live streamer and the ticker symbols all ready to go at 9:15 am, there is no comparison of volume from one day to another. If a stock is going to run right from the opening bell then it is very clear that volume will start heavy while pushing price. If price breaks the high from the previouse day and I like the chart pattern and indicators then I will buy the stock. If you have a lot of the stocks running fast right from the start it can get hectic and you will have to let some go. To me this environment is one of the best (legal) highs that there is in life, other than a good woman.
You do have to be in a position to watch the streaming quotes at all times because somtimes you are in and out and in very quickly. I am lucky enough to be able to do this.
I hope that I have answered your guession.
Apsll.
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Thanks APSLL for answering my question.
Let me ask you another one.
If stocks like IRBT, CALM are up 6-7% yesterday and a stop is a previos day low is not it tooooo risky to trade them.
In day trading 1-2% profit comparing to 8% stop loss.
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MM, I was asked how these stocks look now, not yesterday. There are two trains of thought here.
1) CALM - high $24.20 low $22.84 High minus low is 5.5% stop loss. $24.20 plus 5.5% is $25.50 for this type of trading (Day trading I will accept this risk ratio)
2) CALM - use the bottom of the candle for a stop. I have found through experience that when momentum is building towards a bounce and the markets, and Volume are cooperating and the push is on (price is rising past yesterdays high), it is very rare that things will revers on you and drop below the stop. (it does happen but like only 20% of the time and if it does then you hopfully have taken your profits by then), so the risk ratio now is a completely different situation, based on ones experience with this type of trading.
Booker is correct and I do not want to lead any lambs to the slaughter. If you are new to trading then this might be to risky a style to start out with.
Of all my time posting my stratgies on this forum, this is the first time that I have run into so much negative feedback. I oppologize for any problems or losses due to my introducing this one.
Apsll.
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You do not need to appologize APSLL. You are sharing your own experience and I am sure everyone is thankful for what you are doing.
Thank you for your thoughts on trading stocks with the previous day large move. I used to avoid them, but heard before as well they are a better choice.
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You do not owe the doubters any apology for sharing your thoughts of what works for you. Rather you deserve a hearty thank you for your unselfishness.
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