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11,439 = 200 EMA Weekly is pulling like a magnet now!
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.... and these are the intra-day charts as of the end of the day (jan 8th)
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Joined: 2/5/2006
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its a diamond on the daily. price target @11,500. time for some dog plays. its a bear.
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50% retracement of 2003 bull.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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wow.. it's really here. Well here we go 
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Joined: 9/25/2007
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QUOTE (funnymony) its a diamond on the daily. price target @11,500. time for some dog plays. its a bear.
On a line chart ... it's a H&S with a slightly downward sloping neckline ... (the most reliable pattern) with a theoretical resolution of ~11,400 ... i.e. 14200-12800 = 1400 .... 12800-1400=11,400 ....
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actually, its both.
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Joined: 3/1/2005
Posts: 34
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Good presentation. The futures on the Dow fonight are also quite negative -227 was what I saw on bloomberg.
Yes, the pattern looks definately bearish. The classic dow jones theory also says we're in a bear market. Trailing sell stops on most of our longs sent us to the sidelines from our longs in the first week of June 07. The strategy for our trailing sell stops was the "may and go away" as triggered by negative MACD on the DJ.
Now, I'm patienly waiting for the bear to go back into hibernation before I come back heavily into long equity positions. With what I see developing, it may be some time. To me this looks lilke a bigger bear than 2000. To me this looks like the end of the Bull market we have been in since the Reagan bull market that was initiated by the tax cuts, ending of most ot the passive tax shelters and the implamentation of the IRA-401K system. It's time to batten down the hatches.
I'm defensive, but I don't sell shorts by personal policy. I do buy puts though.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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QUOTE (Ralph Koozer) To me this looks like the end of the Bull market we have been in since the Reagan bull market
You may be right about this. If you run a trend line on the DJ-30 forward you will find that it lies around 12550 today, only 40 points or so below today's close. Kind of scarry isn't it?
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When I first was learning to downhill ski, I tried avoiding moguls. I thought them terrible obstacles to be avoided.
One day, lying on my back and head pointed down hill, one ski twisting my left leg into some awkward rake and the right ski, well, who knew where the right ski was? But, there I was, when some smart aleck(sp?) bounced past me saying, "Don't be mean to moguls, moguls are our friends."
At first, I considered various forms of death to inflict on this person (if I could have caught him) but, then, I realized what a wondrous revelation he had offered me.
Now I understand the steeper the slope, the more the moguls are my pathway down the mountain. And learning to spot, judge and negotiate the moguls provided more and more good air on the way down.
We're now on the downhill slope, for those out there without margin accounts (as I was for some years getting started), there are still very effective ways to go long (although in a very short term fashion) the market and be quite profitable. Study the little hops that you'll see in the descent of stocks. Remember gravity works in the stock market, that is, it's much easier to go down than to go up. Nonetheless, there are little retracements upward that downward descending stocks take. Learn to spot and capitalize on these, take profits more quickly than in bull markets and get back out.
In short, don't panic. You'll be fine.
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dj30 is getting nervous and volatility is increasing, because all traders know this is "the end of the road" for the bull!
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its gonna be a "long afternoon" for bulls today!!!
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the calm before the storm
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Joined: 9/25/2007
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What was that Jackie Gelason used to say ?
And AWAAAAAAAAYYYY we go ...
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wow!! stoch's daily are way oversold!!! (only 5) pop comin' soon?
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12,594 to fly!
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short term rally in place
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nope!
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small pullback and ups ups and away!
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huge uptick seen now!
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magnificent confirmation of yest.'s price! more umph expected!
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QUOTE (signaltap2) magnificent confirmation of yest.'s price! more umph expected!
How much more umph are you expecting ?
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until 13,200 area, look where all ema lines are located now
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That could happen I suppose ...
I just wouldn't expect it to have that much momentum ...
If I had to guess ... and we all know what a hazzard that can be ...
We found some resistance today around the 10 ema/daily ... I would expect some follow-through with diminished momentum .... for maybe a couple of days ... closing above the 10 ema/daily .... but topping out in the 13,000-13,100 area ...
And then a reversal day ... and then a break ...
But ... only time will tell ....
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Gartman said earlier in the week that there would be a short oversold rally. He said he would use that as an opportunity to load up on SDS and the short side. Gartman is somebody Wall Street listens to with about as much respect as they have for Buffett. Interesting.....
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Seems to me that we're just building out an "upward sloping consolidation in a downtrend" ...
That will pull the stochs up off the bottom ... and give us more room to the down side ...
It's early yet ... but remember ... it's personal to the bulls ... they'll throw every last dime at it ...
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open the flood gate! let it drain out!
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I must say ... that this thing is weaker than even most H&Ss that I watched build out ....
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we'd be nice to see a 500 pt sinker today!
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The H&S that built out in the Dow in '61-'62 was quite nice ...
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institutions will start dumping (selling) stocks at 3pm today!!
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QUOTE (signaltap2)
institutions will start dumping (selling) stocks at 3pm today!!
But ... what we really need to see ... is enough mutual fund redemptions that the managers are FORCED to sell to raise cash ...
This weekend ... people will start noticing that they are break-even ... or negative ... for the whole last year ...
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selling programs just kicked in ! what a downtick!
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12,502 is coming fast!
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