Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I have been reading some old threads, and I find them fascinating...
Where have all these old timers gone? Why are they not still posting here??
By the way Diceman SWB has changed its ticker to SWHC...
Did you ever ever discover the methods that Bigblock invented to find gems like SWHC back in January 05 I say that it is as folows
TSV crossing zero, Money Stream crossing the 20 day moving average and price crossing up over 50 day moving average.(He said it was very simple)
(by the Diceman SWHC at that time was a penny stock, it was bellow $5.00)
Any one who wants to read this classic thread can click on this hyperlink -
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=10838
I also see this stock starting another run up...
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Corection SWHC started its run in January 06
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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apsll;
It's good that you brought this up, it's an important conversation. I have wondered many times if some of my posts have run off some of the people that once participated. Of course, I hope not.
I've always thought of forums like this as having enough room for different temperaments, strategies and techniques. I have a particular way of doing things that works well. But so do many others.
I'm persuaded that the various approaches and differing perspectives on the markets create a broader and more secure foundation for any of us that are willing to keep learning. And broad, deep foundations withstand the tremors of changes in the market better.
Because I didn't trade like BigBlock, I certainly was always learning from his writings. And his different perspectives strengthened my techniques though they differ from his. I have made many a tweak based on the opinions and insights of others.
Naturally, this is also true for those presently contributing from whom my techniques and opinions may differ.
I offer my thoughts and findings in the event they help someone else. Should the day come when my contributions are of no use, please, someone be kind enough to point that out to me so I can make better use of my time elsewhere.
But in the meantime, I enjoy and learn much from the interaction with all here...whether I agree with you or not.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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OOOPS!
I was reading the link and posted there.
My response should have been here.
BigBlock never disclosed his methods.
From what I could gather. Price and volume were
the main tools (maybe some fundamentals).
Also, he was only a daytrader. (cash by the end of the
day)
Since many of the stocks he was focused on were on my
radar. My guess is the main tools were relative strength and
major moving average crosses.
By the way this is a good example of why I'm not a big believer
in overbought/oversold except in the short-term.
Stocks like:
HANS 07/2003
TIE 10/2002
AAPL 05/20003
TASR 03/2003
My guess is many left these stocks thinking they were
"expensive" long before their tops.
The stock will tell you when its done.
(it wont go up anymore)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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I was waiting for someone to bring this topic up
so that I could express my opinion on why it may
be that alot of the old timers do not post here
anymore.
It would seem that this forum has been overrun
mostly by posters who are only interested in talking
about penny stocks.
Because of this, it is my opinion that the forum
has been degraded to the point where the old timers
(not all of them, mind you) have just lost interest.
If most of the readers here, now, are interested mostly
in the discussions about low quality stocks, well then
it has become a new day for this forum and a new
audience has arrived.
I, myself, am tempted to take a break from here also.
I'm sure I won't be missed anyway, so I just might go
ahead and do that.
JMO
By the way, CNBC is offering a stock market contest
in March for a Grand Prize of $1,000,000 with a weekly
prize of $10,000. It will be a 10 week contest.
But, most of the readers here may not be able to compete
effectively in this contest because of the overwheming
interest here in low quality stocks.
You see, CNBC has a rule restriction that their contest-
ants only trade stocks with a 1/2 Billion dollar market
cap. Most penny stocks won't qualify for this require-
ment.
So, if you're interested in competing in the contest,
you better start practicing on higher quality stocks
because practice can make perfect in whatever you do.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/3/2005
Posts: 91
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Memorableproducts,
Your posting raised a hmmmmm in my mind. Do you see/use different indicators in evaluating a higher priced stock such as for example GS ($200+ SHARE), COST ( $55), ABB ( $18),
and an example of whatever you consider the bottom price range for your style of trading?
I can not remember ever seeing indicator interpertation based differently on price. This year I have traded stocks from the $70 range to less than $5, and I use the same methods for the range...think there is a difference?
Maybe I need to modify my methods, although I am somewhat afraid to do so as this has been a good 2007 so far;)
Thanks, Jim
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Now this is not to start trouble with anyone, but some of the old-timers on this forum did discuss penny stocks.. I have run across some interesting threads in my trip down memory lane..
HNC at one time you were active in this genre..
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=11473
Above is a thread that is classic..
The first thread I made reference to (SWHC) was also a penny stock..
I love the threads that take place right before the last market corection in early May 06...
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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my two cents for that its worth,
This forum is a great tool for newer guys like me to pick up free but valuable insights and tips from the old timers. Over time, if you read enough posts and do enough paper trading, you can start to learn and avoid more common mistakes. I know that has worked for me. Picking up on what Tobydad said, its also a big help when you have traders who have multiple approaches talk about their trades because that can help you to revisit your own approaches and make adjustments. For the benefit of the newbies, I think it would help a lot if the old timers gave more basics and discussion on how they found their picks and what led them to pull the trigger. Tobydad has done this and its helpful.
One suggestion that Worden might consider is rather than having to go searching back in history for 'classic threads' the most popular threads should be in some kind of index or list so that people could read them with minimal effort. Otherwise, unless people like Apsll bring them to light again, they will slowly fade away over time.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Ultimately the trading battle is between you and the market.
We only learn when we "take in" what we don't know.
I think it is dangerous to "seek" like minded traders.(this
usually becomes a lets pat each other on the back club)
In theory you should seek those who disagree or are different than you.
(at least that's the way it works on paper) Only when your ideas
are challenge can you question them.
It is an interesting fact of human nature. We think we are doing
something unique. We think "we" have found the answer. We
think we are following contrary thought. Then we want everyone
to validate and agree with what we do.
I also think it is too simplistic to "brand" traders "pennystockers"
and "blue-chippers".
From what I've seen , memorableproducts, HNC, BigBlock and
fpetry would be most likely to recommend the type of stock I would follow.
However that should not imply that we "trade alike".
I can only speak for myself but I would start to question what I do.
If I saw everyone doing it. Being alone in your thoughts is one
of the factors involved in true "contrary" thought.
I see the fact that very few will ever fully agree with me in
trading as "the cost of doing business".
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Ipendley --
If what you are doing is working for
you then don't change it.
I personally do not believe in the
use of chart indicators, it is a
waste of my time.
I believe in the programmatic approach
to traversing the technicals in coming
up with leads to consider for short
term trading.
As such, price is the only thing I concern
myself with (for the most part). Although
I do, to a very small extent, take into
consideration average monthly volume.
I employ the use of Pivot Point Analysis
and Fibonacci Expansions and Retracements
in applying my analysis of price movements.
The price range of stocks that I evaluate
usually remains between $13.00 and $130.00.
I just have come to rely on this range as
having the most predictable short term outcomes
for the the analysis I employ.
I like to think of myself as someone who is
always thinking outside of the box and not
within the confines of widely accepted theory
(such as chart analysis)which is oftentimes
erroneous.
I am not saying that I have found the perfect
solution either but I have, for a very long
time, felt that charting is too unpredictable
to be a viable alternative for me and that
there has to be a better way of analyzing stocks.
I realize that chart analysis is all that most
of the participants on this board have to rely on.
As such, I am just here to offer another perspective
in the way stock analysis can be viewed.
But, as I said before, if what you are doing now
is working for you then keep on do it.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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I tracked a number of stocks that I found from HNC's decision point approach and Diceman's screen.
Created a short list on 1/22 and here are some of the names:
PBH
CECO
BKI
ECGI
CGO
CEC
MX
BVF
BRKA
COCO
Have to say that a number of these have worked out pretty well. Didn't trade any of them for real but generally impressed with results.
Has anyone else looked at this approach?
The two items that I am unsure about is when and how you would take a loss? Maybe an arbitrary loss point of 5% and what would be a fair profit point.
Think the approach has some merit but needs some refinement too.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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NFI - bought some puts back in early Jan. 07 and then covered with a small profit after a week or so. Can't even think of why I covered except that was happy with the profit and decided to cash in. I guess the key is you have to follow the trade and be able to put the money issues aside. Any thoughts on trade management for a winning trade?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I really don't like getting into the topic I'm about to broach, but I think it may help someone.
On the issue of the lower priced stocks, I'm not going to defend or vilify the idea of trading them. I'm only going to say that they exist in the markets; and to understand them, be prepared to trade them, if appropriate, and come to grips with what dynamics they create can only help a trader do his/her job better.
I may be labeled as one of the "culprits" who has "degraded" the value of this forum by discussing them. But, the reality is, that you can look through my posts and find just as many higher priced stocks with very solid fundamentals that I have discussed.
I'm going to challenge the thinking of some with this question (do with it what you will): Have you had a good, long look inside to see if you're just being selfish and childish abouth the subject matter discussed here? Are you having a bit of a tantrum because "your" forum isn't just the way it has always been? I don't mean to be unkind, denigrating or controversial for controvery's sake; but I think the question might be a good one for some. (I'm sure I'll draw fire for that one; but I have thought about if for several days and feel like the question ought to be put forward.)
Another point, when considering human behavior, we have had some fun (and learned some things and made some profits) talking about and even joking about "pennystocks" for a week or two. So what? We didn't block anyone from discussing anything they wanted to discuss. Do all these forums have to be so stuffy and fit a particular mold? Here's the bottom line: if the subject matter has merit it will stand of its own accord, if not, stay away from it and it will sink under its own weight.
We're all here to make money and be better traders. If we enjoy a short jaunt into the world of cheap stocks, big deal. We will all learn a little something; for some that something will be "I don't like cheap stocks."; for others, it will be "Hey, I didn't know you could actually make money with cheap stocks!" Who cares? Do what you do and do it well and learn what you can from others. In the end, that's what matters in a forum like this.
Now, surely, someone will step forward, be the defender of truth and justice, and say they just want to protect the innocent, newer traders from the dangers of cheap stocks. Well, I lost more than the national average annual income trying to trade higher priced stocks. Does that make them dangerous? No, I was dangerous because I didn't know what I was doing. In my opinion, that's the issue. If you don't know what you're doing and aren't willing to learn from someone who does, stay out of the markets until you do (high priced stocks, low priced stocks, calls, puts, whatever, doesn't really matter).
The day I tell you that you are not allowed to discuss any relevant subject and gain the power to stop you from doing so, is the day I don't belong here. Other than that, let's move forward.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Well said TB.. The more things change the more they stay the same "Neil Pert, Rush"
The players may have changed some, but the game is still the same. I have checked out enough of the old threads to see that we are all still talking abought the same things, even the impending market correction and when will it come... Penny stocks were discussed along with the blue chips, and everyone was happy...
I think that the first wave of players just got used to the small amount of participants that were posting at that time (clickish), and now they have been over-run by all us newbies, (the second wave).. Keep in mind that I can only trace any thread back to early 2005 so this forum is farely new..
I am sure that we will see new waves come and go, like the ever shifting tides, "Living in the pools they soon forget about the sea". Another great Rush lyric..
Just be thanfull that we all found this special place to come and share our stock market experiences and ideas..
Apsll...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Possibly to your surprise, Tobydad, I tend to agree with
you.
Everyone here has the right to discuss whatever they
want to discuss. Likewise, everyone here has the right
to agree or disagree with what is being discussed and
no one here should try to shut someonelse's ideas down just because they don't agree with what is being said.
Maybe I have been misunderstood. I am not trying to
stop anyone from discussing low quality stocks.
Discuss all you want to. But, I have been very irritated
by the fact that the discussion of low quality stocks
is such an unbalanced one.
There is no balance on this site.
Almost every post I see here is talking about penny stocks. I just long for more balance here.
I just long for more people here that want to talk
about all stocks, all of the time. Not just penny stocks
most of the time. Sure, lately, I have seen more post
about higher price stocks. But, how long is that going
to last?
Bottom line for me: The unbalance here is just very
annoying. But, I don't care if there are discussion
here about penny stocks. I just care that there are
rarely discussion about anythingelse.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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What is the purpose of this forum? Is it to give a place to brag about the fact that we have an approach that works for us or to assist others by revealing our approach?
I think a little of both.
Pride of accomplishment is commendable and should be rewarded with praise. And the sincerest form of praise is to have your accomplishment copied and mad a part of some one else’s approach. I welcome posts about stocks outside my range of interest (one to five dollars) or techniques for selecting candidates for consideration or a new indicator because I may see some thing which triggers a possibly new approach which I had not previously considered.
The other for posting here is a desire to assist in the education of our fellow traders.
I especially commend HaveNoCents, Diceman, apsll, fptry (before he quit posting here), and others for their obvious willingness to share their experience, techniques, and observations. They have been of great value in assisting me to develop a strategy four successful trading.
For some time now the predominance of the posts has been in relation to “penny stocks” or “low quality” stocks. (I detest both of those because of the impression I have that those using them consider me a lower quality trader than they. My own opinion,)
Memorableproducts has posted comments a few times but they to advise to stay away from low priced stocks, ignoring (or not believing) that several posters have made significant profits trading these stocks.
A recent post asked for opinions about an eight dollar stock. The comments and the chart pattern were so convincing I violated my strategy and bought it.
I don’t know why people who trade higher priced stocks are no longer posting here.
It may be that they are just interested in hearing about low priced stocks. It maybe that they think that their techniques are not applicable to low price. It nay they think that if we adopt their approaches we will contaminate the process that their approach will no longer work. Some, all, or none reasons may be true, What ever their reluctance to post their opinions here, I (for one) would like have their opinions, except the one that I should not trade low priced stocks.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/17/2006
Posts: 271
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I wonder...if there is, indeed, a rising interest in penny stocks as reflected on these boards, if this may signal that newer traders are flocking to the market and that traders &/or investors are generally more trusting that making a profit in the market is a fairly sure bet...which I guess could mean "The End Is Near" for this bull.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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memorableproducts, You said,
"Bottom line for me: The unbalance here is just very annoying. But, I don't care if there are discussion
here about penny stocks. I just care that there are
rarely discussion about anything else."
For the record:
My last comments were on:
DDS and the retail sector ($35.51 at the time of my comment)
TLB and the retail sector ($24.70 at the time of my comment)
WLL and the oil and energy sectors ($44.79 at the time of my comment)
PYX and retail ($14,28)
SVN and newspapers ($4.49) but I added this comment: "DISCLAIMER: Trades like this can be quite dangerous. Proceed with caution, if at all."
MMR Oil & gas ($12.08) and added this comment: "This is, admittedly, at the bottom of a long down trend (which usually means we can just expect more of the same thing...down),..."
I have seen no response from you on any of these.
apsll brought up GLDN at over $55; scottnlena mentioned ANN at $35; discussion came up about triangles, and there are numerous other examples.
I wouldn't begin to debate that there has been, on and off, a heavy emphasis on penny stocks; but from time to time the discussions have gotten heavily onto a dozen topics that I find boring, distracting, or otherwise not in my areas of interest. So I read some, if it interests me, I read on. Occasionally I comment. But usually I wait until the discussions are up my alley.
Based on the preceding examples, I'm just not sure how you justify your comments above. Beyond that, I'm not sure why a number of us have offered discussions on a dozen subjects unrelated to penny stocks and you have not responded.
I trade the entire market for balance and security. But it is undeniable that my most rapid profits have come from the stocks between $1 and $10. And I don't recall ever losing more than 6-8% on one. So the big $ stocks give me steady reliable returns and the penny stocks give my portfolio quick boosts.
There is balance on this forum; I've discussed repeatedly that we should utilize a wide array of tools to be ready to take advantage of any part of the market that can, with limited risk, provide good returns. I respectfully submit that the balance may have been missing prior to the discussions that have occurred recently.
I'm thoroughly confused as to the source of your agitation (as well as a few others that have voiced their displeasure).
I humbly regret if this causes offense but I've grown rather weary of the backhanded accusations that this was once a pristine hall of wisdom and that the new participants have downgraded the quality of the discussion.
We now return you to the regularly scheduled programming.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I would say that the simple answer to why some have left the posts
is more experienced traders have less to lose.
I also think there is a certain element that when you give advice
someone will disagree. (you will make enemies)
(Lets not forget when HNC returned to the posts and made recommendations
to avoid low-quality stocks. He was the "bad guy".. Then he showed the
multiple moving averages and he was the "good guy". It is very much a
case of "what have you done for me lately.)
I can only speak for myself. I consider my recommendations for stocks
in the realm of common sense. Much like children shouldn't play with
matches. It is not about contempt. It is not about laws. (you cant trade
that way). Think about it. Am I really supposed to recommend low priced,
low volume, poor fundamental stocks in the quest for fairness and
balance? Why would I want to help anyone I have contempt for?
I have stated on these posts that I'm not a big believer in EW theory,
fib levels, candle patterns. That is not to bash those who use them.
I make my statements to stimulate thought. To open eyes and ears.
Many new traders think there is a mountain of data you must learn
to trade. The truth is it is as simple or complex as you want to make
it. I try to show new traders you can choose a simpler path if that is
your choice.
I have always followed the belief that if something angers you. There
must be a grain of truth in it somewhere.
By the way . I noticed there was a large number of views for the
amount of time this post has been up. (and also for the HNC post
recommending "quality stocks".) I think that in spite of what is said.
"Cant we all just get along". People like to see those of differing
views go at it. It is only when there are differing views and people
have to defend themselves that debate is stimulated. In spite of
what is said people like a good "throw down".
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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i think the purpose of this forum is to hopefully discuss financial issues with those of higher level talent and hopefully help those with less talent find their way...a strategy should make money plain and simple...if you have to wear a red sock on your hand when you buy something and that works for you then so be it...i myself like to pick a small basket of stocks and learn their personality...ocasionally i poke my head out of my basket but i like to stick to what i know works...many things work.. i like to think of 3 P's...product line...pricing power...and profitability...and how many players are in the space? there is a lot of chat about penny stocks lately...i work with statistics myself and i would say microsoft was a penny stock once...but i like to keep my money and want to avoid the higher risk of loosing my but...i typically look for stocks 10-15 dollars on up....i really liked microsoft at 21.50..i still like it in the high 20's...i also liked IBM at 76.....im thinking about liking AMD here soon as well as BSX..but at the end of the day there is really no substitute for loosing your BUTT a few times...makes for a great learning experience!!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Tobydad --
I defer to the following quote from my previous post:
QUOTE (memorableproducts) Sure, lately, I have seen more post
about higher price stocks. But, how long is that going
to last?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Point, set and match to you, memorableproducts. Perhaps you're right, I guess we'll see.
Thanks for your insights.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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memorableproducts
you asked how long it will last.
It will last as long as there are people willing to post comments and request opinions of all prices of stocks.
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