| enkidu |
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Gold User, Member, Platinum User, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Friday, March 24, 2006 |
| Wednesday, January 7, 2009 11:30:58 AM |
72
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Nice scan! Thanks for the wonderful discussion.
Speaking of HNC, where is he these days? Always loved his insight and experience...
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I think a Dow short is definitely in order, but I don't think we have a catalyst just yet (I mean, all the billions of writedowns of Q2 didn't do it yet). I do agree there's a lot of shorting/putting to be done.
There's a lot of daily MAs meeting up around 12500/12600ish, so I'd tentatively set up shop there, and then probably ride a bounce up (to ???... 12700ish?) then down to 11500-11800i1sh. Take the possible drop from the rally as well as the possible bounce both with plenty of salt. :)
For puts, I'd get August puts around low 12k's and have an out of money -> near the money play, if you have the faith to think the Dow's gonna drop.
*passes salt*
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I think to be very fair, signaltap's gotten his fair share of correct (and incorrect) picks, and while I often times am... confused about his choice of timeframe, his week/month predictions are often spot on (that being the virtue of TA or what not, I do not mind... I'm still learning TA, and at least it's straightforward enough for me to understand).
I do believe that TA can be applied to markets, and while I do think fundamentals account for everything at the end of the day, I think TA expresses the nature of all the players involved and how they're seeing, perceiving elements of those fundamentals.
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12.9k and on solid footing... looks like we'll be seeing 13500 before options expiration.
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Wow, they really got raped by meeting earnings expectations and giving a sobering outlook.
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Personally, I'd take a step back, ask myself: "What is my risk capital, how much am I willing to lose? For how much of a gain?" And then decide to allocate accordingly. Once I decide my risk capital, I'd put it in a call or put option to limit my downside.
I... hate to say it, but purely in terms of risk/reward, I wouldn't take a position in it... upside is somewhat valued in, and if a downside occurs, it's a lot of crashing and burning that'll happen. For me, life is too short for worrying about these nerve-wracking decisions. :)
Fundamentally, you'll have plenty of Macbook sales and prolly an iPhone2 annoucnement in your favor, as well as Apple's tendency to understand expectations and overshoot earnings.
G'luck!
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Thanks for the info, I'll definitely run some correlation analysis on it. :) But just to provide balance to the conversation, do consider this: when there are many competing markets on a nation-state level, the players are not required to keep all their assets in the same system (American assets).
With the advent of other global players with possibly more attractive returns in stocks, bonds, commodities, and other investable assets, I think some amount of consideration needs to be kept in mind in regards to the relationship between US equities, US bonds, and the flight to quality (American or otherwise), as well as the major cash players in the equation.
I'll refrain from providing information that will suggest too much of a bias, but I do heartily recommend people make these considerations.
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Re: Etrade -- accounts are insured up to 200k (or is it 500k?) under FDIC standards. Pretty sure if they get wiped, anybody over that amount is gonna line up with the rest of 'em stockholders and debt holders for money, and that I recall was the major issue at stake for people with accounts at Etrade.
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Looks beautiful. Will add some calls once it hits 36.1. Thanks for the tip! :)
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I can't quite play the market oracle like the better chartists in the forum (nudge nudge charters out there), but if I had to venture a guess I'd expect the Dow to rally to the 12600-12700ish range -- upper channels for most market indicies seem pretty straightforward to ballpark (just draw a line! ;) ) -- though fundamentally I'm wary of placing any sort of bet on the Bear going away for at least another year or two.
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