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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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Hi. I'm relatively new to this game, and I have a very specific question for you guys. I've been holding shares in AAPL for the past few weeks, and things have been going quite nicely thank you, with the stock price trending up. But on Wednesday AAPL have an earnings announcement, which I've been told is a dodgy time to own a stock.
What do you reckon? Should I play safe and keep my gains, and sell tomorrow, or risk things going (relativel0 dramatically one way or the other? Are there situations when you would keep hold of a stock even during an earnings annoucement? Your advice would be very much appreciated.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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personally, i wouldn't be buying just prior to earnings, although if already owned it and had some gains, i might hold it through earnings. you need to decide on your targets and objectives and stay with your gameplan, so trading becomes mechanical, instead of emotional.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2006
Posts: 72
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Personally, I'd take a step back, ask myself: "What is my risk capital, how much am I willing to lose? For how much of a gain?" And then decide to allocate accordingly. Once I decide my risk capital, I'd put it in a call or put option to limit my downside.
I... hate to say it, but purely in terms of risk/reward, I wouldn't take a position in it... upside is somewhat valued in, and if a downside occurs, it's a lot of crashing and burning that'll happen. For me, life is too short for worrying about these nerve-wracking decisions. :)
Fundamentally, you'll have plenty of Macbook sales and prolly an iPhone2 annoucnement in your favor, as well as Apple's tendency to understand expectations and overshoot earnings.
G'luck!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I think it seems that price expects a positive earnings report. I doubt that Steve Jobs is the kind of guy to allow a negative suprise. You could check sec filings on nasdaq.com for insiders and institutions.
Technicaly .. the only thing I see is that ther are some minor gaps below price here thay may wnat to fill at some point. GAPS don't alwayse fill. I wouldn't take a new position here but for holding it's fine. Generaly speaking bigger gains come from longer time frames of hold.... you'll need to hold through some earnings anouncements unles you want to short term trade.
If you are nervous then stress is a perfectly valid reason to exit a stock. move up a stop to a point that will allow SOME rome to move but capitalize gains if it decides to swing down. I've even moved stops tot he previous days close and had price gap up and continue up with out hitting my stop... anything can happen.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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Thanks for the advice. I ended up keeping hold of the stock, and in the end, nothing particularly dramatic has happened so far, so things turned out not so bad.
cheers.
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