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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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DJ-30, SP-500, COMPQX, all bumping up against their 200dma. DJ-20 could be forming a wide double top. Financials starting to look tired.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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Sure looks like it. I put on a hedge with QID at open, a small starter position, but just got stopped out at 39.90 for a loss, but may get back in soon at any point today.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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When investors realize that most financials will take years to get back to profitability and positive balance sheets, we may see SKF really soar again.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2006
Posts: 72
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I think a Dow short is definitely in order, but I don't think we have a catalyst just yet (I mean, all the billions of writedowns of Q2 didn't do it yet). I do agree there's a lot of shorting/putting to be done.
There's a lot of daily MAs meeting up around 12500/12600ish, so I'd tentatively set up shop there, and then probably ride a bounce up (to ???... 12700ish?) then down to 11500-11800i1sh. Take the possible drop from the rally as well as the possible bounce both with plenty of salt. :)
For puts, I'd get August puts around low 12k's and have an out of money -> near the money play, if you have the faith to think the Dow's gonna drop.
*passes salt*
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Registered User
Joined: 3/1/2005
Posts: 34
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Yes this bear market rally looks to me like it is getting tired. These rallys since the recent peak have been resultrs of Ben Bernanke's short squeezes. Each rally has digested the liquidity Ben has put into the system to do a little bear market rally and then petered out.
Note each of the bear market rallys has had a lower peak than the preceeding one. We believe the market will test the Feb and March lows. I think the market hasn't fully recognized and discounted the fact that Iran is selling oil in Euros. It will be interesting to see if the rest of the oil exporting countries follow suit.
The inflation is much greater than the FEDs are reporting.
Ben doesn't have very many bullits left in his interest rate cut six shooter. The W pattern much balleyhooed as the bottom seems premature to me.
Good luck and keep your powder dry.
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