Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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Hi all,
VIGN seems to have hit support off the mid-NOV lows; Fast Stochastic is oversold, MoneyStream going bullish.
Any thoughts?
(Corrected name of MoneyStream -Moderator)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well what are you planning to do - Long, shor, short term, long term, swing ...???
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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I like it and I went long. Looks all upside to me. Of course if you look hard enough you can find something right or wrong with any stock technically...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/26/2005
Posts: 3
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It's at $1.18 right now. In the last year, it's been as high as $2.53 and as low as .97, so it's towards the low end. Something I don't like to see is all the insiders selling which they've been doing this month. b
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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OK Mark. I do not know why you like this stock or not, or why you even picked it, but I will tell you that the stock has been in a downtrend since 2000, please check P&F it is an ugly picture.
The fundamentals of this company are bad too. Unless you know something I don't know about profit margin I cannot see the rationale behind your move. Now its industry group ranking 29 and that is good - check some other stocks in this group with a more decent tech and fundamental picture. As for the short term I have no idea why you would jump long at this particular time. If the market continues to jitter I think that it will break support at 1.10. In my opinion, i think this stock is not worth even considering versus other candidates out there offering some real opportunity.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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BigBlock, thanks for your opinion.
I actually was simply looking for a cheap stock price-wise to fill out a space. Weekly Stoc is oversold, Weekly MACD is bullish, price was right. Of course, TODAY I received my TC2005 package (new Member) and looking at it through TC, I also can see some other positives such as BOP is Green and growing, and a bullish divergence in MACD since early Jan. Of course, there is some ugliness there, but my opinion is that VIGN is at a bottom.
Again, you being a P&F'er would probably laugh at all this, and that's ok. I see the downward trend reversing and this is totally a risk play.
Good Luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 14
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Hi Mark,
Quite frankly I don't see much potential in this stock either. You've got fairly strong resistance around 1.25-.26, incl. 50 day EMA. The sht. term Stoc's are up & down and the long term Stoc's are in oversold, but flat. Unless you want a quick 6 - 8 cent prof., it's not one that would interest me either. (But I've been very wrong before and I know I'll be wrong again.)
Good Luck.
(corrected typo -Moderator)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 48
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markaq,
I like your pick. It's a high-risk, very speculative pick, but I still like the chart.
(chart removed by Moderator)
[i'd rather post a TC2005 chart here but i know of no way to do that]
The earlier downtrend from March 04 to Dec 04 has been broken. Price is now going sideways and trying to base; it's also crowding up against the 200day MA. I like the climb in OBV, suggesting accumulation is underway. BOP has turned green over last couple of months, was red in October. Only drawback is that it might retest the $1.00 level, which would be kind of a deep drawdown to ride out if you buy now. But if you don't buy now you might miss a big move up thru the 200 MA. Anyway, I agree, this is a good high-risk pick. -- Jim
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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NutOnABike,
I had to remove the chart for obvious reasons. You can take a screen shot of any chart in TeleChart (use the PRT SCR button) and host the image on the net. You can then link to it.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/9/2004
Posts: 11
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I recommend that you wait for VIGN to break the next resistance at $1.40 before jumping in.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/9/2005
Posts: 42
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Wait until it closes 2 days in a row above the 10 dma once the 10 dma is above the 20 dma. Since this has not happened it likely will continue the downtrend or stay flat.
I would not put money in a stock that is not clearly rising ... a basic rule of trading.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 48
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Sorry about the external chart, Craig. I hope it's OK if I try one more time. Here we go:
(I am glad you got a TeleChart screenshot to work. Boy the charts are pretty in TeleChart! -Craig)
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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Ineresting comments, Nimbus. Thank you.
Is that some sort of Entry Signal you are using with your MA's?
My belief is that I have caught a bottom and the underlying technicals (BOP, TSV, bullish divergence in MoneyStream [2/16 - 2/28]) signal a trend upward. Additionally, the MACD from May-04 to Aug-04 to Oct-04 is a triple bullish divergence which is a bit more indication that this may turn upward. Volume is up on average over the past 5 months, so BigBlock has to like that.
Stopped at 1 tick below recent low - 1.10 for safety.
It's a roll of the dice for sure but I like my chances.
Thanks again for the commentary.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/9/2005
Posts: 42
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Markag -
There is nothing wrong with your basic screening strategy but as technicians we want the tape to signal when to enter, not "roll of the dice" as you call it. The actual entry signal I use is well proven and it reflects when the market signals a reversal of trend by the actual upward price movement. VIGN could be reversing in here but it also could be a fake and the price could move lower, especially if the whole market moves lower. By using the 2 closes over the 10 dma when the 10 dma is above the 20 dma, then the risk of a bad entry is much reduced. If you have already entered and the price sags more you will feel bad suggesting you relied mostly on hope and not enough on the tape.
Bookmark this link and refer to it each day until the entry rule is met (assuming the other aspects of your screen are also satisfied). Notice there was a fake mid-Feb as well and the 10 and 20 dma were resistance that was not overcome. These 2 need to be overcome convincingly imo before I would consider buying.
(removed by Moderator)
Nimbus
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Registered User
Joined: 2/9/2005
Posts: 42
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Hmmm ---
Cut and paste this link. The one above obviously got hosed when posted.
(removed by Moderator)
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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Nimbus,
again, thanks for your comments. you obviously are a fan of that method of Entry signal. Whatever works for you.
My 'roll of the dice' comment was referring to the risk factor involved. This stock, compared to say DJ30 components, is far riskier. This is not a 'guess' on my part however, but a logical conclusion to my method of reading the technicals in the charts, but the risk I take is inherent in the stock itself and the way it trades.
Since I'm not a huge fan of your Entry Rules, i'll pass on the bookmark, but thanks anyway.
Good Volume today, stretching up....
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Mark you can wait all you want, and may be the stock will eventually go up. Now in this business you will not succeed if you live out of hope.
So first rule - Leave your hopes behing - If you are trying to trade I will actually encourage you to change your psycologycal make up about hope or you will most definitive fail.
Second rule - Preserve your precious capital - so you can quickly reinvest it in better vehicles.
example - in a similarly price stock CNR - you could have just sold your falling stock today -VIGN- and reinvest your capital in CNR which by the way put a little show today.
And not just for the trading day - but please feel free to check the chart an see what a display of strenght and grace CRN has. For a cheap stock that is quite some quality. That is what you should be looking for - not tops and bottoms.
And third rule - you must be able to sell quickly and cut your losses small or you will not stay around for long. You need to be able to sell without destroying your psychologycal make up - don't get depress when you sell at a loss. Just sell and go on as nothing ever happened.
If you cannot do so those 3 things you are doomed for disaster.
I could tell you a lot more about all of this, but do not have the time or inclination. My advice to you is the same as I told you originally. Get out and move on.
Good luck
By the way your volume observations are just an ilusion.
The volume pattern in this stock is not telling you anything new although is similar to the pattern just before the fall in Jan 2004.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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BigBlock/Nimbus:
Let me repeat this paragraph as it has been lost on both of you. In the spirit of the "technical Thoughts" heading:
"My belief is that I have caught a bottom and the underlying technicals (BOP, TSV, bullish divergence in MoneyStream [2/16 - 2/28]) signal a trend upward. Additionally, the MACD from May-04 to Aug-04 to Oct-04 is a triple bullish divergence which is a bit more indication that this may turn upward. Volume is up on average over the past 5 months."
As for the three 'Rules', since I'm doing all three, I should be snug as a bug in your eyes.
"you could have just sold your falling stock today -VIGN" -- Well, you must be shorting it then because it went up nearly 6% today. I don't know what stock you are watching but it isn't VIGN. And, it out-performed your CNR for the day. It may not tomorrow, maybe not in the longer run, but who KNOWS?
Regarding CNR: True, it looks good but I never go long on a stock when certain technicals are in the overbought range. I have a *system* I am using and it avoids these types of plays.
It's just too dangerous ***in my view***. And I'm sure you were in at .20 and out at the top, but its not my dime.
Now, if you have some "technical thoughts" that do not include the words "cut and run" without any supporting argument, I'll be glad to read them.
Cheers!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Mark you are somewhat confused.
CNR acvanced today 0.28 ( open 1.54 close 1.79) and VIGN only advanced 0.08 (open 1.18 close 1.26 )I have no idea where you get your information. If you are looking at percentages then you must know they are based on the previous day closing.
At any rate, I am glad that your system is working and this will be my last comment about VIGN.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2005
Posts: 38
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To finish up, CNR closed yesterday at 1.71 and closed today at 1.79.
You are talking about the trading range for the day (1.52 - 1.83). That to me is deceiving at times as it did not recover from its previous close until early afternoon.
The net change on closing price was .08 or up from the previous days close of 1.71 up 4.68%, that is what I was referring to.
VIGN Day Range 1.18-1.30, obviously tighter than CNR.
Assuming you are in CNR, lets *hope* for the bulls to continue...
Good Luck to you as well.
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