| Nimbus |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Wednesday, February 9, 2005 |
| Sunday, July 27, 2008 12:28:08 PM |
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A rising ascending bearish wedge on low volume, and the retrace now at 61.8% of the drop on most indices, means we are extremely likely to retest, and likely break, the recent lows.
V-bottoms are not bottoms, just bounces, expecially when the volume is low.
The next leg down will begin this week.
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QUOTE (Apsll) Hohandy & Diceman my scans for Momentum & Institutional buying are way above normal (IN the above $10 range) That usually means a powerfull trading session. The pre-market futures are down right now so the markets might open weak, but I think they will finish strong.
Couldn't resist quoting you. What a day!
Clearly hedge funds are selling everything to meet redemption obligations, which means they are selling the Large Caps. Small caps held up fairly well but I expect a major market meltdown over the next few months as all the leveraging will unravel.
It could be very substantial and kill even the bull.
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Well - I called the TOP on Monday and it's still looking good.
On divergences - all you have to do is look at the weekly chart on GS. The huge neg divergence on the MACD tells all. We're heading down boys and girls, possibly hard.
EXITs will be jammed, so leave the party early.
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The Feb drop was not telegraphed very well with the technicals, so it's a poor example. I see a lot of neg divergences on the MACD daily and weeklies, such as on the $RUT and $COMP. Volume drop today means buyers are done. Reversing candles on these indexes are pretty reliable. Ignore the DOW - just 30 stocks, and AA is the only reason it is up.
No matter what the FED says Wednesday, they will be blamed for the reversal of fortunes.
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Black candles and Dojis, and volume is awful.
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A properly designed modern website allows the width to be flexible in the window width that is open, just like TC does, not stuck at a rediculously thin 800-pixel wide format.
It needs to be redone imo.
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What a step backwards. This forum is no longer easy to read. YUK!
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With the dollar so weak, the Asians are buying USA stocks at major discounts to what USA citizens have to pay for these same stocks. This is a huge driver for the recent feeding frenzy for our stocks. I call it "false demand." You don't hear about many USA brokers "loading the boat" in recent weeks - many are selling into this false Asian-based demand.
The scary graph, ala 1999/2000, is the Dow Jones Shanghai index ($DJSH on StockCharts).
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$DJSH
When we took a hit in late February 2007 in our markets, it was in reaction to a mere 9% drop in the $DJSH, from 284 to 259. The $DJSH is now 379 (up 46% since late February). The Febraury drop barely shows on the current chart. The P&F chart says it also just topped on Friday.
Clearly the $DJSH is going to collapse like the NASDAQ did in 2000. Odds are it will retest the breakout level of 165 of late November 2007, effectively a drop of 57% !!!!!! We could feel at least half of that here in the coming months.
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The Market is being held up partially by big Wall Street Brokers and hedgies whose monthly bonuses are on the line. They got none in March and so April was catch-up time. With RSIs over 70, and volume tailing off, the big drop likely will begin Tuesday, the start of a new month. With the economy slowing, perhaps the annual top is in.
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DOJI on the NDX yesterday with RSI of 76. Enough said.
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