| NutOnABike |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Monday, December 6, 2004 |
| Thursday, February 26, 2009 10:37:50 PM |
48
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FRX broke down -5% on 3x volume today. Feds charge FRX with paying doctors kickbacks to prescribe their drugs. So much for the bullish pattern. Goes to show why you should always use protective stop loss orders, you never know when bad news might hit the wires.
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IMHO I think FRX is coiling up for a breakout to the upside "soon" (today, tomorrow, next week, next month ... I'm talking odds here, not a prediction).
Lots going for it: I like how the 40-day moving average is slowly climbing up, giving support. Nice base over last several months. STO 14.4 looks like it wants to go up, while Moneystream shows cash flowing in since October. In the last 30 days, earnings estimates for the '09 year have been raised, albeit modestly. Forward P/E ratio is 7.5 and this company has no debt.
Goldman Sachs put out a Sell rating recently. Bah, I can't say I trust big investment banks any more.
I think this one's going up to test the 200-day moving average at around $30. Might be a good buy-and-hold candidate and wait for a buyout, seems like a good candidate due to all cash and no debt on the books.
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QUOTE (cyberlight14) There's no way I'm going back to Windows after using Ubuntu 8.04 I can do everything in Ubuntu I could in Windows, except TC2000.
I've had great success running TC2007 under Linux. On my Ubuntu 8.10 system I installed Win2000 within Virtualbox. Once I got Win2000 set up and tweaked, then TC2007 installed without a hitch. As an emulator I'm impressed by Virtualbox's speed, the performance hit seems small. V--box is a slick program; Windows and TC2007 are neatly contained in a single file about 2GB in size.
Here's a screenshot:
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Original poster here to collect my applause and kudos for calling this rally.
[crickets]
Um, well, that's OK. It's not like my self-esteem depends on Internet message boards 
hope you made coin today, i did !
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Friday, Oct. 10, had the markets in historically extreme oversold levels. Obviously financial institutions, hedge funds, mutual fund redemptions have been selling indiscriminately in the 8 days prior including Friday. Blood is in the streets.
When was the last time you saw the VIX over 70? Years, if ever. And we all know readings that high are unsustainable. The New High/New Low ratio is a miniscule 0.15%. Virtually all technical indicators are pegged at zero.
How about a snapback bear rally to the 50% Fibo level? In the DJ-30, if we take the Aug. 11 high of 11800 and Friday's low of 7880, 50% takes us back to 9850. From the 8450 close that's about an 8% gain, certainly plausible in a high volatility environment. We might also head back up to retest 10,000.
Monday could be really, really good for short-term traders.
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Nice call laphill. That's good work recognizing that the panic selling created a fleeting opportunity for a bargain. I do think your sell signal will come very soon... looks like a bounce on moderate volume.
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OK, time to get to work. I took a thumping a few days ago (see the SPNC thread) by foolishly holding a small cap stock through its quarterly earnings announcement. Lesson learned: no matter how pretty the chart looks, earnings news can result in sudden losses or gains.
Recently I've been reading academic journal articles about a different effect, the Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD). Basically it has been observed in the markets that after a positive earnings surprise it can take 4 to 8 weeks for the market to fully adjust the stock price to account for a new level of earnings.
Today ENDP, a drug company, posted a pro-forma 52 cents per sh versus 44 cents expected, and upped its guidance for the year ahead to $2.20 per share. At 0.44 and yesterday's price of $25, that implies a P/E ratio of 14.2. With the new earnings guidance that P/E ratio works out to about $32. Also working in its favor is ENDP is in a good sector (pharma) given the slowing economy. P/E ratio is reasonable.
The chart shows that the slow downtrend is broken. OBV bottomed in mid-January and is turning up, and is above its own moving average. The 200-day moving average is just under $30. Since the company is outperforming expectations, I expect ENDP to move up to retest the 200 MA in the next several weeks. I bought near the bottom of today's candle -- it opened at $27 and quickly fell back to $26. The hot money closed the opening gap, and I figure that's a good place to step in. Stop loss around $23. Time stop 8 weeks.
And the best part is, they announced quarterly earnings this morning -- I don't have to worry about a bad earnings announcement for the next three months :-)
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OUCH. Down -28% today. Earnings came in breakeven $0 vs. $0.02/qtr expected.
Play with fire and you get burned. I know holding a small cap through earnings announcements is risky business. That was dumb. Revenues growing at 35% per year, how could I be wrong? Easy. I was wrong.
Should I keep it and hope for a better quarter or a buyout? Company guidance says revenue growth will continue, and should be 20% higher for 2008Q4. But in today's news release the company declined to give EPS guidance. If the company's not confident whether or not they can be profitable, neither am I. The chart is now a technical disaster. I'll just take my loss and move on.
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Taxes schmaxes... I'm voting Democrat. And so should you! Why? Stocks perform better:
[CNN] "...stock market returns are on average about 5 percent higher when the White House is run by a Democrat than during Republican rule.
Looking at the 72-year period between 1927 and 1999, the study shows that a broad stock index, similar to the S&P 500, returned approximately 11 percent more a year on average under a Democratic president versus safer, three-month Treasurys. By comparison, the index only returned 2 percent more a year versus the T-bills when Republicans were in office." (http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/21/markets/election_demsvreps/)
Someone told me once: "I never complain about taxes, it's a sign of good fortune. If I have to pay a lot of taxes it means my income is high, and I've had a good year. Cheers!"
Jim aka NutOnABike
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QUOTE (Apsll) I like this one as well... I might enter myself if price can break the resistance at around $14.00
Thanks, glad you like the chart. As far as buying above $14, that's fine if it works for you. I understand and respect that strategy but I've never been a fan of it. When I've done that I always feel like I've missed half of the parade. Or, if I chase a breakout it pulls back on me and I end up holding through a drawdown.
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