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Joined: 3/7/2005
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Is it time to get serious about buying sirius
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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It's funny you mentioned that. I have been very sucessful with this stock. We are in a wave two uptrend that was supposed to take the stock at least to 5.50-6.00. The stock is doing this wave in at least an abc type movement. I believe the b downward wave ENDED today. The stock dropped to where it was supposed to at 4.62 and quickly moved up to its closing price.
I am not positive but pretty sure. I bought 1000 shares today and if the stock continues to rise tomorrow and monday I will buy another 1000. I just love this stock. I have shorted, and gone long on this stock 5 times so far this year. So far I have made 4000 on the short side, and 1900 on the long.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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You should be aware that the stock did hit 5.57 a little while back and we could well be in a wave 5 downtrend that will take the stock to 4.10 -4.24 so watch it close if you enter it. It the stock drops below 4.57 get out.
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Joined: 3/7/2006
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There's a lot I don't like about the stock, but it is sitting right on a support line I drew for it some time ago. I wouldn't have caught that if you hadn't mentioned the stock
It's a pretty solid support with some technicals improving. It will most likely be good for at least a good trading bounce.
After that - we'll see how the mediocre technicals look.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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I agree Inspector. None of the technicals I use look good at all. Of course they can change very quickly but they look horrendous right now. I also don't like the rounding top. The only good thing is this stock trades many shares a day and it takes a lot to move this stock just a few cents. It is very easy to get in and out of. It also reports earnings on May 2. This is another stock I will keep during earnings because not much is expected from it and it is trading near its yearly low. Of course if the stock drops below 4.57 before earnings I will already be out of it.
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Joined: 12/31/2004
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Jim Cammer had some thing too say oh sirius today and said donot buy. HE said some other things on it .He made it clear he did not like sirius
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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The only thing this stock got going for it is an oversold stochs, which by the way has just started and has a tendency to stay in the oversold territory for quite a while once it gets there. The only strong support I see here (closest) is at about 4.45, which is just about .40 from tedays closing and I am sure it will take down. MA's are all in short mode, and in weekly mode all indicators - ROC, TSV, and MS have taken 2004's lows. IF support is broken at 4.45 you can count that it will hit 2004's lows. The only question is when, not if. There is a secondary support at about 3.51 but not really significant.
By the way they have never make a single positive penny.
May be Cramer has cramated his intelligence.
good luck.
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i bought a little today and will buy more if it drops
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Joined: 3/24/2006
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Earnings are on 5/2, just FYI. XMSR took a beating a few days ago, dunno how SIRI will fare.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
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QUOTE (enkidu) Earnings are on 5/2, just FYI. XMSR took a beating a few days ago, dunno how SIRI will fare.
Same way, if they don't have a jump in subscribers
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Joined: 11/5/2005
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Anyone worried about the lawsuits flying around with Howard Stern or are they a thing of the past?
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If you're talking about the CBS lawsuit there is not a judge or lawyer around that believes CBS has a case. Many people in the legal arena say it will never make it to court.
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Well the stock held my 4.57 bottom that mt predictor estimated. I bought another 1000 shares today at 4.61. They report earnings tomorrow. I believe the stock will start its minor c wave up to finish this wave 2 corrective upward wave. They report earnings tomorrow at 8am and this is another one of those stocks where I feel you don't have much to lose after earnings are reported.
Of course I could be wrong and this is a wave 5 downtrend to 4.15. I don't think so though. The weekly is also showing that this is the perfect buying position for the stock.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) Well the stock held my 4.57 bottom that mt predictor estimated. I bought another 1000 shares today at 4.61. They report earnings tomorrow. I believe the stock will start its minor c wave up to finish this wave 2 corrective upward wave. They report earnings tomorrow at 8am and this is another one of those stocks where I feel you don't have much to lose after earnings are reported.
Of course I could be wrong and this is a wave 5 downtrend to 4.15. I don't think so though. The weekly is also showing that this is the perfect buying position for the stock.
I was on the road and didn't get a chance to get the lower price, but good luck in the days following.
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Joined: 3/24/2006
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Congrats to those who bought it. It's a good day to be Sirius. :)
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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I'm not convinced yet. If we were in a true downward wave 5 this stock will return to 4.60 in the next couple of days. If we were in a wave 2 corrective c wave then this stock should reach 6.00 before heading back down.
I am going to be a long term holder of this stock. There are only two players in this market and sirius will ultmately win. I mentioned this story previously, but a month after I purchased Dish satellite television I decided to be a long term holder of dish stock. I got impatient, and took my profits and left about 165,000 dollars on the table. I am not going to make the same mistake twice. I have been given a second opportunity. I purchased a sirius radio in December and it is well worth the money. This stock will be a 5 bagger from the 4.20 area in 2 to 3 years. I am going to play in and out of this stock, but I will also have long term shares that I will not sell. I see many 2 for 1 splits in this company's future.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I'm not convinced yet. If we were in a true downward wave 5 this stock will return to 4.60 in the next couple of days. If we were in a wave 2 corrective c wave then this stock should reach 6.00 before heading back down.
I am going to be a long term holder of this stock. There are only two players in this market and sirius will ultmately win. I mentioned this story previously, but a month after I purchased Dish satellite television I decided to be a long term holder of dish stock. I got impatient, and took my profits and left about 165,000 dollars on the table. I am not going to make the same mistake twice. I have been given a second opportunity. I purchased a sirius radio in December and it is well worth the money. This stock will be a 5 bagger from the 4.20 area in 2 to 3 years. I am going to play in and out of this stock, but I will also have long term shares that I will not sell. I see many 2 for 1 splits in this company's future.
That may be true, doesn't look impulsive on this move down from the opening, looks more corrective, but I suspect it needs to hold in this area and launch either a c wave in the corretion
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Joined: 3/24/2006
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D'oh, I spoke too soon... looks like my stops were hit at 4.92 and 4.81. I'm assuming downtrend to the mid to low 4's for the next week or two...
HnC, if the stock doesn't pick up, I'll hafta agree with you on the whole going down the low 4's before rebounding, in which case I'll be holding off the rebuying.
I'm still a charting newbie, so please correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks to me that the moving averages and what not are pretty poor.
As it stands the risk-to-reward ratio for a SIRI long seems appealing, although I figured in the mean time I'd pick up some other stocks since I'm considering opportunity cost, as I don't feel SIRI's gonna be doing that well in the very immediate future.
Always willing to learn from the vets. :)
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enkidu you are correct about the moving averages. This stock looks terrible from any standpoint. This is what I like about elliott waves. It's good to know that the downtrend will probably be complete in the 4.20 area. Now of course it could trade sideways for years, but it is nice to know where strong support actually is. It has strong support both at 4.60 and 4.20. If it drops below 4.57 I will be out of the stock and repurchase it at a later date. I still believe this stock has at least 5.75 in it before that final downtrend.
I believe in opportunity cost as well, but I also believe in human nature. Human nature will make me forget about this stock. I'm willing to give up some opportunity cost on a small portion of my portfolio for the certainty of owning the stock. In this way I will always be aware of what this stock is doing because it will be in my portfolio. If it makes it to the 4.20 area I will probably buy 5000 shares. I will keep 2000 for long term, and trade the balance for short term profits.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) enkidu you are correct about the moving averages. This stock looks terrible from any standpoint. This is what I like about elliott waves. It's good to know that the downtrend will probably be complete in the 4.20 area. Now of course it could trade sideways for years, but it is nice to know where strong support actually is. It has strong support both at 4.60 and 4.20. If it drops below 4.57 I will be out of the stock and repurchase it at a later date. I still believe this stock has at least 5.75 in it before that final downtrend.
I believe in opportunity cost as well, but I also believe in human nature. Human nature will make me forget about this stock. I'm willing to give up some opportunity cost on a small portion of my portfolio for the certainty of owning the stock. In this way I will always be aware of what this stock is doing because it will be in my portfolio. If it makes it to the 4.20 area I will probably buy 5000 shares. I will keep 2000 for long term, and trade the balance for short term profits.
The sellers have been in control since the opening, not a good sign.
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QUOTE (bknight) The sellers have been in control since the opening, not a good sign.
I agree. It's not very encouraging, especially considering the fact that the overall market is performing well. It's going to take awhile for the institutions to get behind this stock. Even the people that support the stock say SIRI's success has nothing to do with Howard Stern. Anyone who believes that I have some apple stock I want to sell them at 94.00.
I haven't given up hope yet. The rest of the week should give the final answer as to whether this stock is going down to 4.24 or back up to 5.60-6.00. I would like to see a nice rally from wherever it is in the last 15 minutes before closing.
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Joined: 3/24/2006
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Nice intuition about the rally near the end. My limit buy just set in at 4.84 with a few thousand shares... let's see where it goes from there. :)
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Good luck on your purchase. The stock moved up .12 in the last 30 minutes of trading and .08 in the last 15 minutes. A definite positive sign if we have some follow through tomorrow or thursday.
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Joined: 3/7/2005
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looking at the charts today the ms ma and tsv look very good, i am no expert but the chart looks good to me
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Things aren't looking too good for the home team. It's a down market day though so we will have to see what develops by Friday. Needless to say I am not impressed by SIRI movement.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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Well I gave you my opinion on this one early in the thread. Today the stock got knocked. On top of that after market news reported a increase in revenew for regular radio, and a decline in subscribers for satelite radio.
The stock hitting 5.75 any time soon - I doubt it. In fact I think my prediction has just increased their odds about 200%. SIRI's action today speak by themselves.
About Gary's comments that indicators look good for SIRI - I suppose you must be looking at the wrong chart, wrong settings, or something. I am puzzled how you can see that.
When and if Stochs cross that 20 line you may get a retracement, and probably wont last long.
good luck.
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Sirius is not losing subscribers. They are gaining subscribers by leaps and bounds. I do agree that the stock doesn't look too healthy right now, but nevertheless I will sit on my shares until I get 5.50, or 4.57. Should it drop to the 4.15 area I will back up the truck for the long term.
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Well it cost me about 250.00 to find out if this was a wave 4 up, or a wave 5 down. I now know its a wave 5 down. I expect some support here at the 4.50 area, but now I think it ultimately will go down to 3.50-4-10 area. If it does, I will be a strong buyer at that point.
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Joined: 3/30/2006
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Thanks for the heads up....
I'm in @ 4.6 X 5000 - I'm patient
target ?
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Joined: 3/30/2006
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Target Two !!!
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Target Two !!!
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Joined: 12/19/2004
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$3.50-$4.00 
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) Well it cost me about 250.00 to find out if this was a wave 4 up, or a wave 5 down. I now know its a wave 5 down. I expect some support here at the 4.50 area, but now I think it ultimately will go down to 3.50-4-10 area. If it does, I will be a strong buyer at that point.
Getting close to the mid point of the target.
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Based on today's action it looks like it will have no problem getting down close to the 3.50 area.
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hnc where will you start buying
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I will buy anywhere from here to 3.50 depending on the strength of the stock. The stock has to prove to me the downtrend is over so it needs to at least move up or stabilize for 5 or 6 days. I will post when I buy, but at least 4 of the seven indicators I use will need to be rising.
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sirius rockin today
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Gary there is your change of character. I like the candle, I like the volume, I like the stochs - careless about the wave, and i will have SIRI in my basket tomorrow.
This seems to have good probability of a substantial move up.
good luck
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bb,i have been playing it on the way down from 7.75
It really has had a long steady decline and hopefully it will get some upside momentum for a change.
It is an interesting stock to watch that has high volume.
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Joined: 3/24/2006
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Went in yesterday for 3.7ish, and I agree with BB, the technicals don't seem so hot, but I like the trading that's developing as well. Pretty good risk to reward. :)
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