| HaveNoCents |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Wednesday, December 8, 2004 |
| Sunday, December 20, 2009 2:01:24 PM |
1,301
[0.44% of all post / 0.18 posts per day] |
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I have to go with diceman on this one. Trade what you see, not what you think you will see in the future. Right now my bullish scans show 77% of the highest volume stocks are in bullish trends. That's pretty normal for a strong bull market.
Let the market tell you where it is heading. Forget forecasting except for the fun of it, but try not let that forecasting cloud your judgement. This was a very tough lesson for me to learn.
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This stock is in "no mans land" right now. I still own it, but will probably get stopped out today. The reason it went down was WMI reported an earnings disappointment.
I did notice, however, that the reason it was disappointing was because of its difficult compare the last year because last year they had a bunch of cleanup for hurricane Katrina. Their year has been great other than that tough compare. I don't know whether AW had much katrina clean-up or not, and will also have a difficult comparison to last years quarter. Time will tell.
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If you like ascending triangles this one is a classic setup.
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All I can say is ASCENDING triangles consistently make you money. I've been trading futures recently and their upside predictabilty is uncanny.
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I forgot to mention the stock is also in a nice ascending triangle pattern. I just love ascending triangles.
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Take a look at AW using the Multiple moving average system I displayed a couple of weeks ago. You will see that the longer term ma's and shorter term ma's have almost converged into one. This stock is going to go up or down, and whichever direction it moves will probably be the next longer term trend. This provides a very low risk entry.
Now they do report earnings in the middle of february so you have to be careful with this stock.
Positive volume is increasing above its average, and atr is dropping like a rock. A perfect indication this stock is going to move pretty darn soon. The last two times atr has dropped to this point the stock gave us a nice 2-3 dollar move. Will it do it again? I don't know for sure but it is worth .50 per share possible loss to find out. If I am wrong I will reverse my entry and go short as soon as I get stopped out.
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You have it EXACTLY RIGHT!!!! Thanks for saying it clearer than I could.
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You are more than welcome. I hope it helps you make money because after all, that is what we are all trying to do. I posted the examples to open the mind and experiment. There are thousands of trading methods. Try to become aware of as many as you can, and find a way to test those methods under different market conditions. What works in a bull market often does not work in a bear market or a range bound market. You always want to trade with the market and the best system for that market.
Good Luck.
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Scanning is the most powerful tool in tc2007, but as I mentioned previously I now trade only a basket of 100 stocks. I look at those 100 stocks every night. The stocks I selected are the top 1 or 2 companies in about 60 industries. I only update this list once every year. This causes me to miss some high flyers, but it also gives me an indication of how the overall market is doing. Normally I have a choice of at least 4 or 5 trades a day. When I can't find anything to trade in the basket, I don't trade and normally as it works out, I am glad that I didn't trade.
Although I love scans to filter volume and price, I do not like scans to find patterns. It is sometimes difficult to mathmatically define a pattern, and normally when you try to do so you miss some opportunities. I actually want to see every chart. Every night I make my own personal prediction for each of the 100 stocks based on the indicators that I use. It helps me improve my pattern recognition, and it helps me become thouroughly familiar with each of the 100 stocks.
Good luck to all.
Keep experimenting. I'll check in on the weekends, but you won't see any more posts on the weekdays. I HAVE to get back to testing and trading my own systems.
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Excellent candidate!!!
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