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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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everyone is still on pins & needles with this market...investor sentiment is still terrified....confidence levels are as thick as toilet paper. A couple down days and investor sentiment plummets. Isn't this bullish?
We've seen a ton of big volume breakouts of top stocks the past few days....market may be a bit overbought, but 2010 could turn out to be a strong year for stocks.
How you feeling for 2010? I won't hold you to the answer, and you don't have to trade this way for the rest of the year..I'm just curious about sentiment in this joint.
I'm going to go ahead and say: bullish.
What do you think?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Ben: saw an article the other day. Said the big boys are still being conservative and skeptical. Said overall volume is still down. Maybe a little conservatism may be a good thing.
My dumb guess is that I hope nothing happens quickly, up or down. STEADY
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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Well retail money flows are still not coming into equities. There's 10 trillion in cash on the sidelines, which is mind-boggling.
It is said bull markets climb a wall of worry. I think the "big boys" are as confused as anyone else!
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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can't argue that the trend, medium term, is up, although a trading range seems to have developed.
upside volume seems to be on the light side, though. while the downside volume seems heavier. almost seems as though the market is being propped up. i guess if i were the suspicious type, i might suspect gov-sachs & friends are propping up the market with cheap money being supplied by the federal reserve, while public is out of the market. and the market doesn't exactly look cheap based on fundamentals here, either.
the money on the sidelines argument has been around forever. not sure how anyone could measure that accurately. investor sentment terrified? based on what? AAII?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Ben, I think that we are on the same side of the fence this time. I notice that the vix in relation to the 200 week sma is very telling. Look at the dates mid 2002 to mid 2007 and march 2009 to now......
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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fyi-
Sentiment Surveys
The AAII weekly survey came in with the bulls at 34.9% - basically unchanged from last week. The ranks of AAII members who are pessimistic about the market fell by 5.7% points to 29.5%. Those either confused or ambivalent about the market were the majority at 35.6%. This was in fact the highest level for the “Neutral” choice since early 2006.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Thanks funnymony; good info. Remember everyone, TA is reading charts which are, in turn, simply graphs of the emotions of millions of people. Ben Franklin said, "If you would persuade, speak of interest, not reason." So it is interest, sentiment that drives the market. TA simply reads and responds.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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upside volume has been picking up!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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By the way, Am I the only one to notice that outline drawn by Apsll over the bear, looks like a coffin?
(a subliminal message????)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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lol....a vampire coffin!
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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market melting up...
it's tricky here....breaking out, or overbought? load up, or take profits?
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