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Registered User
Joined: 9/28/2008
Posts: 1
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I'm new to trading and would like to get opinions from experienced traders out there on AMZN, earnings out Thurs. Where will it go from here? Thnx
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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i would stay away from it. wednesday should have taken prices lower but thursday restablished the uptrend. also theres some strong resistance at 80. thursday can push it either way, might as well flip a coin
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Registered User
Joined: 4/21/2009
Posts: 24
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What I see in AMZN is the following:
ON the daily chart a 200 MA which has stop the decline - now it is basically flat, and therefore it has improved. Also a supporting uptrending line on the stochastics.
On the 3 day chart our system issued a buy signal in the 2nd week of Dec 2008 - the BUY signal as of todsy is still wide opened and going. Also the stochastics confirm the bullish activity
On the 13 day chart the Buy signal is wide opened with strong momentum and stochastics that currently show at 72 therefore confirming the bullish trend and leaving room for more to come.
On the 60 day chart it shows a Sell signal, although there is NO confirmation and there has been a retracement toward reinitiation of another Buy signal on future time. The stochastics in this time frame are still bearish. Keep in mind that the 60 day frame is very slow to change as it is used for long time investments.
I must say the price action on the 60 days is on a positive light.
Depending on the time frame of your trade there are a few things you may consider. The stock will probably retrace before finding higher ground. You could increase your buying power at that time.
On the same token I especulate at least a rise of 2 or $3 more before the especulated retracement.
Earnings are always to be considered and important to watch closely if you have a position on the stock while they are issued. If you don't have a position perhaps it would be wise to wait until earnings to reasses your choices.
Pick your frame, and pick your actions. The overall activity of this stock looks very posisitive since late last year.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 3/28/2005
Posts: 31
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If you are new to trading, you must first concentrate on learning to control your risk and minimize your losses. If you buy a fairly volatile stock like Amazon into the earnings report, you will not be able to do this. It could gap right through your stop. Even if I knew exactly what the earnings would be, I still would not buy this stock now, because I wouldn't have a clue how the market would react to the earnings. It coulg gap higher on the open, and turn around to close lower. If it's a stock you want to own for the next 2 or 3 years, wait until after the report. If you completely miss a great move, don't worry. This is not the last helicopter out of Saigon.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (jlsmith) This is not the last helicopter out of Saigon.
LOL ....
But it may be the last boarding call for the Titanic ...
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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QUOTE (kolbgib)
On the same token I especulate at least a rise of 2 or $3 more before the especulated retracement.
Hi Bigblock!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/21/2009
Posts: 24
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The stock closed today at 78.84 you can buy PUTS between 4.05 and 6.15 specifically - June PUTs ZQNQO and ZQNQP.
That is cheap insurance ($405 to $615 plus commissio will insure you $7874 and that is well below a 10%) and would allow you to control your risk unaffected by overnight moves for about a month.
Should you decide to stay away after earnings you can sell the remainding value of the option.
So regardless of earnings you would be covered 100% on the 80 PUT, and well the 75 PUT almost there (I am sure you can do arithmetic).
This stock also offers LEAPs - Jan 2011 PUT VONMO and VONMP which will reduce the cost of short term insuring if done properly, or will insure your trade until 2011 should you be willing to hold that long for whatever reason.
Understan that the cost of the LEAP will be greater upfront, but because the expiration takes places at a much later time if you decide to sell the option at a much earlier time there will be much more value left than in the case of the next May play.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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I just bought a Straddle on this, With a plan to get out on Friday.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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QUOTE (hiromj) I just bought a Straddle on this, With a plan to get out on Friday.
Sorry, I meant to say strangle.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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So where does AMZN go from here?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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One here can't say if anything fundamentally has changed or not. As none of us are economists and the key people that do know what is really going on, certainly aren't going to tell the American people the truth. And for those that actually beleive what the media spins as the truth. God help you. Based on the replies on this forum, no one knows where this is all heading. And for that matter, even the experts don't. At times I equate economists right up there with the weather man.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/21/2009
Posts: 24
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Nothing has changed.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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Thats your opinion. You don't know one way or another. None of us do.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/21/2009
Posts: 24
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If you look at the daily chart, you can easily see that the uptrend until now is intact. Furthermore the recent lost ground had a very low volume participation.
It seems that nothing is out of the ordinary.
But sure it is my opinion; and there are only two ways to go.
Time will tell, and in the markets you can buy time.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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QUOTE (kolbgib)
If you look at the daily chart, you can easily see that the uptrend until now is intact. Furthermore the recent lost ground had a very low volume participation.
It seems that nothing is out of the ordinary.
But sure it is my opinion; and there are only two ways to go.
Time will tell, and in the markets you can buy time.
There is actually five ways it can go.
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