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Well, I don't know if it's a giant or not - but check out a very long range chart of MTOX - like weekly on zoom 1+. Been in a funk since mid 1996 and only now seeing high volume, TSV, MACD-H. it seems as if this is the rare stock that actually was given a nudge from it's slumber on Feb 27.
I like using Tobydad's tsv26bb13 setup - and it had a very tight bb hugging the zero line for a long time - popping up in the last 2 months. Nice location along the 30LR too. What I really like about it is a horizontal consolidation the last 2 1/2 weeks and interaction with the 13ema line. And it just positively cleared the decision point yesterday. WOOF!
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She is a beauty. Once the highs from said consolidation are broken then the sky is the limit. MACD-H is curving up towards zero, Dicemans indicatior and stochastics just turned up from the decision point..
Good find Hohandy...
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Apsll I've been trying out the HNC/Diceman/MACDH system - not quite like you are (not using the same parameters). But each day, I've been sorting my watchlist by daily MACD-H visual value. Those that get a visual value of 100 have MACD-H at the top of the chart - which usually accompanies a price high. They are going into a separate ("MACD 100") list that then gets sorted each day by the Diceman formula (I find visiual value really works on this, Diceman) with the lowest being closest to the decision point. So I'm tracking recent MACD-H highs that have pulled back to the decision point - and viola - this showed up yesterday. So my first real test of the new system.
Others looking good (without looking at other indicators) include:
CY
EMR
LBY
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I have held LBY for some time now and have made a small fortune. I will look at the others (CY,EMR). I will also try out your Macd pullback theory.
Together I think that we can design a good solid usable system (it might take some time).We also might have to give a little credit to those other guys, I think they are called Diceman & HNC...
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handily cleared the pre-consolidation high (and then some)
I'd consider this a pretty good test of the theory - a multi-month price and MACD-H high predicts a retest of the high. The HNC/Diceman setup helps find the entry point after the pullback. The MACD-H high predicts which way the decision point will break. Win-win all around 
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that is pretty cool. Just make shure to test it more thoroughly than once.
so I use a HNC/Diceman scan. Which sorted by the diceman indicator bring all the dicision points to the top.
How to sort for the past MacdH condition? I'll need a pcf I think. so as I understand you sort by the visual value of macdh and move the 100's to another list .. where there you wait for the decision point marker to point out an entry signal. The details on the MacdH high being retested sound familiar,(Elder?) but I must be missing something there. In what context do you mean a previous macdh high will be retested? could you elaborate.. with an example?
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NPSP shows this characteristic back in October..and then Price later challenged its own high earlier... which wound up being the top. But what about currently?
Or price needs to be at an all time high for the first MacdH peak?
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Scott - I talked about this on the hohandy thread a couple weeks ago I think. On page 108 or so of Trading Room, Elder talks about when a price hits a multi-month high (or low) and the MACD-H on the same day also hits a multi-month high (or low), that means that the trend has such momentum, that even if it pullsback a bit, it will revisit the high (or low) by sheer inertia, if anything else (I'm almost positive he uses that word). The key is, and this is where I've been mis-reading it, I think, that it has to be a multi-month high (or low) price point.
If you take your watchlist, and do a visual sort on the MACD-H indicator, those with a 100 (or 0) value will be those charts where the MACD-H is at the extreme high or low on the chart. (The values that visual value gives are the percentage up the chart the MACD-H is with 100 being at the top and 50 being at the 0 line and 0 being at lowest). Generally, if you then look at price points, most stocks with 100 will also have a multi-month high (and the ones that don't have bullish divergence because MACD-H is at a high point on the chart). So I pull those into another watchlist, and wait for the prediction to come true. Each day I then run the HNC/Diceman scan on the MACD-100 watchlist, and see which ones are at the decision point. And the night before last, I noticed that not only did MTOX reach the decision point, but it just has a very awesome chart, that I couldn't resist.
My MACD-H is set to 12,26,9. Look at a daily MTOX chart, and see where it hit it's price peak about 13 days ago before settling into its recent horizontal consoldiation. Look at the extreme high value of the MACD-H that day. If you had run a sort of MACD-H that day by visual value, it would been 100. Now Elder (p108) says that a multi-month price point high accompanied by a multi-month MACD-H high means that the high will be retested. So it's just a matter of waiting for the pullback, waiting for the decision point, and entering then using HNC/Diceman to find the entry. Knowing of the prediction gives confidence at the decision point that the breakout from there will be up rather than down.
Another way of doing this is to take any watchlist, and sort by the HNC/Diceman setup to find those stocks at the decision point. Then do a visual look at each chart, see if there is a multi-month price point high before the decision point, and see if the MACD-H also hit a high that day. If so, then, according to Elder, the price point high should be retested
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QUOTE (scottnlena) NPSP shows this characteristic back in October..and then Price later challenged its own high earlier... which wound up being the top. But what about currently?
Or price needs to be at an all time high for the first MacdH peak?
Scott we can test it out some examples like that, but I'm thinking that this really only applies to the MACD cycle previous to the price point. He's talking about trend momentum and how the MACD-H is a meausure of the strength of a trend - so I wouldn't expect a trend from last October (or the characteristic of a trend from last October) to be still valid now in May
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Hohandy, with the MACD-H scan I am looking at the stocks that are less then 100. Maybee like 71, because when it is 100 you will have to wait longer for the turn-around.
Look at AFSI you will see that the MACD is already starting down as the pull-back is in motion. Now you will have less time for the turn around (just a thought) what do you think?
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The down side is that in the below 100 range you will also have to look at charts where MACD is on the way up as well as on the way down. It might be worth that extra work if it shortans the wait time...
I will work on a solution to this. Maybe a percent true indicator (might take a day or two)...
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but the question is, Apsll - when a stock is at 71, is it at both a multi-month price high and a multi-month MACD-H high? That's the key. As long as the those 2 criteria are met, it doesn't matter what the visual value is, just I know that when MACD-H is at 100, I'm almost sure it's at a multi-month high, so it's easier to find them that way. But for the prediction of the price retest, both price and MACD-H have to be at multi-month highs.
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I can design indicators to make sure that all conditions are being met....
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What about a sort process?
Sorting the Russel 2000 by MacdH gives a hand full of 100's Say we keep everything north of 65% of visual value. so I flagged all above CMP and switched to all falgged items.. or move them to a watchlist called "pallet", however this is already 176 items.
**this includes some down trends ... several of which are positively divergent. Possibly keep everything north of 70%... but that dosent fix the down trend problem**
Sort by any trend confirmation system you like I'm using "My 20,40,50, uptrend"
AVGC20 > XAVGC40 AND XAVGC40 > XAVGC50
And unflag all below the last "true"... leaves 108 whic leaves only 108...I could go through these visualy quick enough. But lets go further.
re sort by the visual value of MacH and put the 100's in a watchlist so you dont miss them later.
then sort by the HNC/DICEMAN. indicator.
Mine works such that the best matches are at the bottom so invert the sort if that is the case.
Ok that didn't really bring the greatest to the front. Perhaps a different order to the sort criteria. It did bring up GBBK, BWINB,SIGM TLEO
Sort same list by HNC idicator... to start keeping all between .25 and 3.50
then the trend criteria
then possibly by a 5 day linear regression on MachdH keeping all the down trends...
I don't know.. A scan by custom indicator might be better.
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Don't forget, Scott, that stocks that are at MACD-H 100 now are probably extended and will need a few days in the oven for the pullback (they also probably have the far extreme value on the Diceman formula). I started my MACD 100 watchlist about 2 weeks ago - and so far only a few stocks have come down to their decision point like MTOX has. But I figure now that the pipeline is going, I should be getting a few more each day.
And also, as I've mentioned to Apsll - don't forget the important thing is getting stocks at both multi-month price and MACD-H highs. I KNOW that at MACDH 100 I will get these sort of stocks - anything less, and I have to visually check to see if they fit that criteria. I'm afraid that if you catch a MACD-H value to low on the visual value scale, that you're going to get a whole lot of stocks that don't fit the criteria and will end up with huge watchlists and making a lot of work for youself. As it is, I have two different watchlists that I go to - and I've been getting roughly 20-25 stocks a night that are all MACD-H 100 - no need to really go down that sort any further.
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QUOTE (scottnlena) Sorting the Russel 2000 by MacdH gives a hand full of 100's
you know I've been doing this drill every night for a couple of weeks now, playing with this - and tonight is, easily by far, the fewest number of 100s have come up. I think this is one of those times when you can tell by the cumulative showings of a favored indciator just how sucky a market day it really was today
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This is a interesting idea. This is the 12,26,9
histogram 10 days ago:
(XAVGC12.10-XAVGC26.10)-(XAVG(XAVGC9.10,12)-XAVG(XAVGC26.10,9))
If you sort by this visual value. You will get stocks that were
strong 10 days ago.
Mixed with a weak diceman indicator now. This will give you stocks
that are more "ready to go".
Just running this on the SP-500
FIS
LLTC
CCE
look interesting.
If 10 days ago is the optimal value I don't know.
It would seem like this would be something good
to do after a bottom has formed if the market.
(SP-500) Getting in on the group of stocks that
should be ready to go.
Thanks
diceman
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The giant I think that we woke was the Diceman.. He has done it again. The type of indicator that I was envisioning for this project is here when I come in this-morning, compliments of Diceman...
I have changed the 10 days to 7 days and created a second indicator for 15 days
Candidates for the 15 day -
WSCI
NOVA
Candidates for the 7 day -
ELNK
NYMX
BPHX
TSYS
ACTU
I am going to have fun with this for a while. Thank you Hohandy and Diceman..
Hohandy please let me know if I am doing this wrong or if I am not understanding your intentions for this method...
My favorite candidates are -
ELNK
FIS
CYPB
CCE
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Apsll
You got it right - looks exactly the way it should. Does the formula generate a bunch of non-hits in addition to these or does everything it generates fit the bill? We should keep track and see if this theory actually works
I LIKE FIS, CCE and NYMX myself.
Thanks Diceman!
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I would not say a bunch, there are a few non hits. These scans will make it easy to find good candidates with little effort.
You are right about keeping track, only time will tell. I do believe that we are onto somthing though.
That is what I love about this Forum, it not only creates a great learning environment for hungry minds, but it also gives more expeienced traders a way to pull there knowledge together in colaboration to creat some awsome stuff...
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nothing like a collaborative team effort
It was talking with Scott about MACD that got me thinking about this - so he deserves some credit too....
I'd just like to repost the quote from Elder's Come Into My Trading Room p108:
When MACD-Histogram reaches a new multi-month peak, it indicates that bulls are extremely strong, and the corresponding price peak is likely to be retested or exceeded
he then goes on to elaborate:
When MACD-Histogram rises to a new record peak, it shows a terrific splash of bullish enthusiasm. Even if bulls pause to catch their breath, the upside inertia is so strong that the rally is likely to resume after a pause
Of course, notice the weasal-word "likely" there - there's no guaranty.
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It is times like this that I wonder if there are experienced traders out there having a good chuckle at our expense.
They have already tried this feeble indicator approach or that one, combined that formula with this one, been there done that.
It all reminds me of another great contribution that HNC made to this forum back on November 17th 2006 and it goes somthing like this -
HNC: "I thought I would pass this on. I don't know who wrote it, but whoever they were knew what they were talking about. Find out where you are in this scenario and try to move yourself up the ladder".
QUOTE
In the broad category of “trading the markets,” there are basically three types of trading: discretionary, technical, and strategy-based.
I have known and taught many traders, and have observed that there are four distinct stages of trader education: discretionary trader, technical trader, strategy trader, and complete strategy trader. All successful traders have gone through them. It is almost impossible to be a successful strategy trader without going through all of these stages.
Every trader usually starts out as a discretionary trader. The amount of money lost generally determines how long it takes the individual to start using technical indicators to make trading decisions. Eventually, as even employing technical indicators fails to move the trader into profitability, the trader moves into the third stage and starts to write strategies based on quantifiable data. It is at this stage that the trader ordinarily starts to make money. Finally, the strategies and money management approaches are refined and the individual becomes successful as a strategy trader.
The Discretionary Trader
A discretionary trader uses a combination of intuition, advice and non-quantifiable data to determine when to enter and exit the market.
Discretionary traders are not restricted by a concrete set of rules. If you are a discretionary trader, you can make buy and sell decisions using whatever criteria you deem to be important at the moment. For example, you can use both a combination of hot tips and relevant news stories from The Wall Street Journal, and enter or exit the market based upon this information. If you begin to lose money, you can immediately exit the market and change your trading method. You don't have to use the same techniques day in and day out. It's a very flexible way to trade that you can customize based on what you think the market is going to do at any given moment.
For the discretionary trader, trades are made using gut instinct and intuition. Unless a computer is generating a buy or sell signal and you actually follow the signal, your emotions will affect your trading. I explained in the introduction what problems instinct and intuition could be in trading. Remember fear and greed? In discretionary trading, technical tools such as indicators are sometimes used; however, when they are put to use, they are utilized sporadically as opposed to systematically.
Fascinated by the markets, the discretionary trader is ready to put on a trade at a moment’s notice. The most uncomfortable part of trading for the discretionary trader is when there is no action. So he will jump on any piece of information, anything that will permit him to take a stab at the market. Above all, he craves the action.
& HOT TIPS
The discretionary trader uses several sources for his trading decisions. One is intuition, for example, “I see a lot of people in stores, so I think the economy is good, and earning will increase, so the stock market should go up, and I should buy Sears.” He usually spends a lot of time talking to his broker. “What do you think Joe, isn’t Woolworth’s going to turn around?” Another is reading and watching the news, “Retail sales are looking strong and Woolworth’s is closing stores to lower their overhead.”
Hot tips are a common way that a discretionary trader gets ideas. A call from his broker or good friend, or a tip from a discussion at a cocktail party are all places the discretionary trader gets his trading ideas. “Hey George, HTECH Corp. has a hot new product in the works, here’s a stock you can pick up cheap.” If it gets dry in the summer, our discretionary trader may decide to buy Corn, Beans or Wheat. However, when he looks out the window and notices that it’s raining, he sells the position immediately. A news story on the nightly news may cause a discretionary trader to short the airline that has just had a crash.
CRAVES EXCITEMENT
What a discretionary trader loves is the excitement. He loves being “in the markets,” playing with the big guys. He craves the risk, the excitement of trading, and the gambling rush that he gets from calling his broker and putting in the order to buy. He loves being able to sell Gyro Corp. based on the news story of the health hazards of their top selling Gyrometer. He has a real obsession for buying Cotton based on the hot tip from his broker that the upcoming crop report was going to be bullish, and he covets the tip from his friend who called to say that he just bought Techno Corp. because the latest quarterly earnings were going to be a surprise on the upside.
Discretionary traders retain the flexibility of changing their buy and sell criteria from moment to moment, and change they way they trade from minute to minute and day by day. “Well, that last trade was a disaster, so tomorrow I will buy McDonald’s only if it opens up from yesterday’s close.” They don’t have any discipline, nor do they think they need any. They use their intuition and their gut instinct, and feel justified in doing so. They think, “Making money is easy, you just have to be smarter and quicker than the next guy.”
I personally don’t know anyone who has made money by discretionary trading. They may have been lucky and won on a few trades, but overall, over time, discretionary traders always lose money.
It is after enough money has been lost that the discretionary trader in some way stumbles across technical indicators. It may be from the chart book he just looked at where there was a Stochastic Indicator underneath the chart. Or he may have gone to the latest Make a Million Dollars Trading the Stock Market seminar and found out that using the Relative Strength Indicator is the sure way to stock market profits. He thinks, “So this is how they do it!” These indicators look like magic. They add some rationality to an otherwise irrational trading style. He thinks, “This must be how the big money players make the big money—they use technical indicators!”
DISCOVERS TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Once the discretionary trader discovers technical indicators, he or she incorporates some rudimentary ones into trading, usually as additional justification for making the trade. “Not only did Ralph (my broker) tell me to buy Gizmo Corp. but Gizmo has great relative strength. Gizmo’s moving averages are bullish, and the Stochastics are oversold and giving a buy signal as well.”
These newfound technical indicators give the discretionary trader a new lease on trading. Now our trader has a whole new world in front of him—the world of technical trading. For a while, this newfound world combines with intuition and the discretionary trader views himself as a strategy trader. He says, “I trade a strategy using moving averages and Stochastics with a dash of daily news and tips from my broker. I am now a real objective strategy trader.” While the trader may view himself as a strategy trader, this could not be farther from the truth. The discretionary trader’s style is still undisciplined, based on newly educated guesses, and he is probably still losing money.
For a moment, these technical tools were thought to be the answer, and while they add a little more rationale to his trades, the losses continue to pile up. Despite his continuing angst, our discretionary trader is now on the way to becoming a technical trader.
The Technical Trader
A technical trader uses technical indicators, hotlines, newsletters and perhaps some personally defined objective rules to enter and exit the market.
As a technical trader, you are beginning to realize that rules are important and that it is appropriate to use some objective criteria such as confirmation before making a trade. You have developed rules, but sometimes you follow them and sometimes you don’t. It depends how confident you feel today and how much money you are making or losing. If an indicator gives you a buy signal, you may override it because your broker told you the earnings report was going to be negative. Or maybe the bonds are up, which means interest rates are rising, and you better see how high rates go before you commit more money to this already overpriced market. You may think, “I have a profit, hmm, I just may take it now. Even though the Stochastic is not overbought, the markets are tough. It’s not easy to make money. Like my father said, ‘you can’t go broke taking profits.’ At least now I have a winning trade. I’ll sleep well tonight.”
Our trader now begins to realize that using the intuitive and hot tip approach will not lead to profitability. He now begins to focus on the technical indicators themselves. There are so many! Moving Averages, Exponential and Weighted. The MACD, Momentum, P/E Ratio, Rate of Change, DMI, Advance/Decline Line, EPS, True Range, ADX, CCI, Candlesticks, MFI, Parabolic, Trendlines, RSI, Volatility Expansion and Volume and Open Interest, just to name a few. So much to learn and so little time!
This whole new world of technical books, seminars, newsletters, and hot lines now begins to preoccupy our trader. He learns all he can about indicators. He wants to find the one indicator that will ensure profitability. He surrenders to what I call Indicator Fascination.
INDICATOR FASCINATION
The first assumption that our trader makes is that someone out there must know how to do this. There must be an expert, someone who knows how to make money, that has created the magic indicator to do it. This is the Holy Grail syndrome and our trader now embarks on a search for the Holy Grail Indicator. He knows intuitively that there must be an indicator that will give him the information he needs to make profitable trades…that there must be teachers out there that know how to make money trading. He thinks, “All I need to do is find him and his indicators.”
This is the indicator fascination phase. How are indicators calculated, what do they represent, and are they the “secret” to making money? All of these questions need to be answered so he becomes a seminar junkie, travelling the country on the quest for that great technique, the one that everyone uses to make the big money. He visits Chicago one month…L.A. the next…followed by a visit to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He watches the CNBC expert technicians and surfs the net looking for that magic indicator.
Now he’ll only buy when the ADX is moving up and the MACD is positive, and he’ll sell only when the RSI gets overbought and turns down. His trading becomes more indicator-based and he listens less to his broker. For example, he may tell his broker, “No, I won’t buy Apple Computer until the Earnings Momentum Indicator is over 80!” Unfortunately, even with all of this information, and all the assurances of his seminar leaders, he still is not making money. He even begins to wonder if he will be able to continue trading with all of these losses. He thinks, “If I could only control the losses, I will probably be able to trade a little longer before my money runs out.”
It is at this stage that he learns the value of stop losses, known as stops. He learns the importance of managing the risk on each trade. He gets a hint that there is more to trading than just the indicator, and his ears perk up when people mention the concept of controlling risk and conserving capital. He thinks, “I just want to stay in the game, to keep enough money to make the next trade. I don’t want to quit a loser!”
But even with the newly found indicators, and controlling his risk with stops, he continues to lose money, although he also consummates some winning trades that keep his capital from depleting too quickly. And here he has another major revelation—markets can be trending or choppy. It is at this point that he realizes, “If I could only predict the choppy markets, where I lose most of my money, I could simply stay out of the market and get back in when it starts to make the big move.” So he starts another quest, that of leaning how to predict choppy markets.
PREDICTING THE MARKETS
Discontinuing the use of the old technical indicators, our technical trader now begins to flirt with the Elliot Wave theory, W.D. Gann techniques, and Fibonnacci Targets and Retracements. These techniques generally claim to help you predict when the market will be choppy and where and when it should be bought and sold. He does all of this studying so he can learn to stay out of choppy markets. It makes a lot of sense. Someone out there must know when the markets are going to go sideways and then step aside waiting for the next big trend. When the trend comes, they get on it and ride it for big profits. They then exit and wait for the next trend. He hears promises that he should be able to forecast all of this by using these predictive techniques.
Unfortunately, after several seminars, our trader tries to predict a corrective stock market and ends up mistaking it for the next big wave up. He explains to his friends, “I missed the big move because I thought we were in Wave B but the market was really in Wave 2 ready to start Wave 3. If I had just used my old trusty indicators instead of trying to predict the move and waiting, I would have made big bucks.”
HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES
It finally occurs to him that he should back test some techniques and see how some of his indicators would have worked historically; he reasons that if he can do this, he would have more confidence and discipline in his trades. He begins to understand that no one (including himself) can predict the market. He starts to realize that he needs to have some confidence that the techniques he is going to use have worked in the past. He now knows that he can’t predict the market. He thinks, “All I really need to know is what the probabilities are when I put on a trade according to my rules, and I should make money.”
Our technical trader has now passed the second big initiation and begins to sense the need for trading a strategy. He realizes that there is immense value in historical strategy performance data. He purchases TradeStation and dives into learning how to design and trade strategies.
The Strategy Trader
A strategy trader trades a strategy—a method of trading that uses objective entry and exit criteria that have been validated by historical testing on quantifiable data.
Strategy traders are restricted by a set of rules. These rules make up what is known as the strategy. As a strategy trader, you will not deviate from your strategy’s rules at all, unless you have decided to use a different strategy altogether. When your strategy tells you to buy, you buy. When your strategy tells you to sell, you sell. And you buy or sell exactly how much your strategy tells you to. You read The Wall Street Journal and talk over the markets with your broker, but you don’t make trading decisions to override your strategy because of something you read or heard from your broker.
The reason you are restricted by your rules is that your rules are sound. As a strategy trader, you've spent a lot of time and research in creating those rules. Your rules have been hand-designed by you and tested and re-tested on years of historical data. This testing has given you positive results and the conviction that lets you know it’s time to take your strategy into the future. Your emotions might still fly as high and low as the market, but at least they are not causing you to make bad trading decisions.
Our strategy trader has now left behind the gurus, the hotlines, and the broker recommendations, and has stopped trying to predict which wave the market is in and how far it will go. He has purchased and learned how to use TradeStation. He is becoming knowledgeable about computers, data and technology. He has realized the value of quantifiable data and back testing, and starts to put on trades with the confidence that comes with knowing the historical track record of the same strategy for the last 10 years. He is slowly learning the business of trading.
QUANTIFIABLE DATA
One of the first things a strategy trader needs to understand is quantifiable data. This is the data that he will correlate to the market and use to develop his trading strategy. Without quantifiable data, he would be unable to trade a strategy.
Quantifiable data is measurable data. Stock and commodity prices are quantifiable, as is volume. All technical indicators that are derived from price and/or volume are quantifiable and useable in designing a strategy. Are phases of the moon quantifiable? Yes, as are the location of the planets. They occur in a regular pattern, and each occurrence is measurable and predictable. What about earnings per share or the price earnings ratio of stocks? Yes. These are also quantifiable and can be used in strategy trading.
Once you understand what quantifiable data is, it is easier to spot non-quantifiable data. Non-quantifiable data usually consists of random events that cannot be reduced to a number and that cannot be predicted. For instance, speeches by politicians are not quantifiable, although we know that they can have a profound effect on stock prices. Opinions of our broker are not quantifiable. Are earnings surprises quantifiable? No, but quarterly earnings reports are, and they usually have a significant effect on stock prices. Are weather patterns, droughts, or freezes quantifiable? No, although we know they too have a considerable effect on commodity prices, it is not possible to quantify droughts and correlate them to Soybean or Corn prices.
A strategy trader thus moves into a mode of acquiring and testing quantifiable data as it relates to historical price activity. This is a marked difference from a technical trader, who tries to correlate data to price but usually through observation and intuition, and from the discretionary trader, who doesn’t use quantifiable data at all or feels he needs to in order to make money.
It is this acquisition and use of quantifiable data, along with the software to test it, that enables the strategy trader to investigate trading techniques historically and begin to put some rational and enlightened business practices to use in his trading. It is this process that enables him to start finally making money
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I think that I am still in the Indicator fascination Phase. I hope to graduate at some point, but I keep getting detentions..
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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APSLL you make me laugh. However I don't know know that it wasn't a big comercial for trade station? I have been quite proffitable in the past with Telechart and my notebook and basic plan. Buy as strong of signals as I can find... and the best will come to me. Now i'm trying to filter out as much of the chaff as possible and facilitate their coming to me. I'm learning more about indicators so that I can understand better what they are telling me rather than "when those little lines cross over that line and make a thingy shape buy it). Also understanding indicators helps in terms of using the TC software becasue you often must define what you are looking for THROUGH indicators.
Small consolidations are a night mare to try to search for unless by some means they are coming to you. I must have a dozzen posts asking Bruce and Craig to help me with pcf's and blocks diagrams for small consolidations. However the HNC indicator is in fact a handy way to find more than average amount of small consolidations. so it is important to go through the Indicator phase. I never expected an indicator to trade for me... I'm smart enough to know that it isn't that simple or there wouldn't be any money in the markets everyone would use GOD indicator.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Very interesting read by the way.
Hohandy:
"It was talking with Scott about MACD that got me thinking about this - so he deserves some credit too...."
thanks for the credit.. I guess that makes me like the Apple that left a EGG on Issac newtons head  .
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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CCE crossed on the Diceman today. Would be surprised if this stock does not have a few points in it.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Don't become confused; there's a difference between indicator fascination and indicator mastery.
Don't abandon indicators, just be sure they are the tools that serve your purposes...your strategy, if you will.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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One of the things that is interesting. Is the
idea how "basic" indicators can be altered
and transformed.
This whole scan is generated with moving
averages. Yet none are used in their standard
form. (trend filters)
MACD-H (three mav's) is used as a measure
of trend strength and diceman indicator
(six mav's) is used as a measure of volatility.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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QUOTE (apsll)
My favorite candidates are -
ELNK
FIS
CYPB
CCE
Apsll, good call on CCE - I liked it too once you pointed it out. Care to discuss how you found it? Did you screen for it with Diceman?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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jcfla7
See my post from 5/15 9:47
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Thanks Dice, my bad - I should have read all the posts in order.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Diceman (help), I tried out your new indicator both as an easycan and a visual sort, but and am sure if I am doing it wrong. Can you simplify the approach for those newbies in need. When I tried pasting it as a visual formula similar to the old Diceman could not find any stocks like CCE. Steps you would follow to use it correctly? Thanks.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I sorted the MACD-H 10 days ago by visual value.
(flagged the higher ones (I think above 70 )
Then sorted by diceman indicator visual and
looked at charts that had low diceman value
and flagged (previous strength)
The concept is to find a stock that has been
strong and is now "resting".
Hopefully ready to resume its trend.
There may be better sorts or lengths. This
was just an initial test.
Remember that its always possible there is not
a good candidate in a watchlist.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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ok thanks. By the way, found a potential HNC/Diceman when looking at another list of stocks. Check out EDU.
I have a theory about HNC/Diceman that might make it easier to use. Why not just look at the top 5-10 sectors each day and sort using Diceman indicator? Should narrow down the potential stocks a lot right?
The more I learn about stocks - the more I think sector strength is the key to near-term performance (or near-term weakness). For example, you short reits and you buy utility ETFs - for past couple weeks and you would have done pretty well. Just a thought.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/11/2007
Posts: 19
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Hi
Can someone post a link to the diceman indicator pcf or scan that is refered to in this post ?
The search feature is not working well for me ( gives the object reference error when I try to move further into the search results)
Thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"diceman indicator":
((ABS(XAVGC3-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC5-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC10-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC12-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC15-XAVGC8))/XAVGC8)*100
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some background:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=18942
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=21976
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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check out edu. Another shining example of me not taking my own advice.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Its possible that:
(C/MAXH20*100)-100
(the percent below the highest high reached in the
last 20 days)
may be a useful addition to this scan.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Since the MACD-H 10 days ago
(what I used) is in the past.
Any strength shows a type of continuation pattern.
(the MACD-H has hit a high but the price is not
re-tracing)
A good example is: WMI
Only -.23 percent off the high. Notice that it did
this back in 3/26/07 and it bode well for the future.
PRU - is actually at a new high after the
MACD-H (a real sign of strength)
PAYX - also.
ROK is deciding if it will breakout or roll over.
(in flag/pennant style)
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My guess would be a large negative value would
mean a problem with the stock. (the MACD-H
was a fluke)
Probably there is a "sweet spot" of
retracement somewhere in the 3 to 6
percent zone.
(just a guess)
So this has the potential to find continued
strength or "proper" retracements.
Depending on your intent.
Thanks
diceman
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