Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
just curious what you guys think. the Fools are promoting this one in their rule breakers... not that i pay for that service but I get the free teasers and figured this one out. I've been watching it for a while. Their technology is honestly breath taking. If you go to their website there is a little video you can watch on what they are working on.... I found it quite moving. They have a product that is a great help and preventative measure for heart attack and stroke victims... it's implications for HIV are amazing also. Phase 3 testing is going on now and due to report to FDA for human aproval early this year.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
This company may have great intentions but I'm
not sure why I would wait for approval of anything.
When there are already companies that are underway
like: AOB, DIGE, CELG, QGEN.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
Just came back across this chart. MS isn't givnig us much ...but TSV is looking more and more healthy. I think i be in lnog if it breaks above $1.52. Thier technology is still exciting and test results have been pretty amazing so far...I think on the press release there will be a run up.
APSLL check it with Martha's TSV ROC combo indicator... very nice "<" shape.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Remember Diceman, we are Bottom feeders at heart.
Scott and I have taken classes with Techni-Trader and they teach how to interpret buying presure (from institutional players) in the early stages (bottom formations) of companies on the rise. LIPD looks like a good candidate..
Volume and Bop in late August early September 2006 (IMO) demonstrated some large lot buying presure.. March 6 & 7th a boost from Volume & TSV again leads me to belive that ther is some pressure building..
I cannot speak for Scott, but this is the type of analysis that I enjoy, it makes the art of trading fun, and I seem to have better luck with this style of trading then the proven winners that you have mentioned. I can not explain why, but I just do...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
So far as the charts go, I wouldn't get into this one until it breaks out from its current position. I think it may run more or less sideways for a while then drop back to the 50ma or even into the mid-$1.30's.
It'll have to decide soon which way it's going to move out of that triangle it's forming.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
It may do that..tobyday I'm not saying that it is gonna rocket to the mooon. but even shorter term the consolidation it is forming I think will pop one way or the other.... proffits can be taken. Then something else... it is true that after aproval then the product must be produced and marketed. but their thing is substancially cheaper than the alternatives as far as I know and preliminary results are very encouraging. I think they will move up over a longer term also.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
What did I tell you ???
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/11/2007
Posts: 4
|
QUOTE (scottnlena) What did I tell you ???
Nice call, broke out on good volume...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
to bad I cancelled my order last month.
now to watch for a 2nd chance.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
That's the problem with these things.
Good call but difficult to profit on in the
real world.
(also from the chart it appears to be news
driven. So I guess that means it could have gone
the other way )
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
|
Biotech has to be one of the most volatile types of stocks out there. I bet if you could take a zero coupon 30 yr. junk bond and convert it into a stock of comparable risk, mostly likely would be a biotech company with one drug under development and a high cash burn rate.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Scott;
I don't know; what did you tell us? More importantly, what did you tell yourself? You need to go back and take a hard look at your own comments on this thread. Don't fool yourself into thinking you called this one right...that's death to a trader. You must deal with the hard realities. And the reality is that no one knew. I called this stock back in Oct 2006 but I was way too early so it really didn't matter. In essence, I didn't call anything...just saw some evidence. Today, we got another piece of evidence; stronger evidence this time.
I called it right that it was going to retreat to somewhere around 1.30 and it ended up there yesterday. But not before it went much lower than I thought it would. And it could have just as easily done something altogether different.
My point here is that I used to be frustrated at situations like this and walk away thinking,
"Darn! I had it then I missed it! Next time I won't let it get away!"
The reality is that just when I thought I had missed something was the time that the stock had confirmed it was in a new trend...it was time to start watching it.
I used to try to catch today's move (sometimes I catch them pretty low) but with one like this, today's move was just the signal that it's time to play!
I suggest you not see this as an opportunity missed; rather as a positive confirmation of a suspicion. Now you can calmly move this stock to the next level of watchlists; one in which you give it more serious consideration.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
tobydad:
"I called it right that it was going to retreat to somewhere around 1.30 and it ended up there yesterday. But not before it went much lower than I thought it would. And it could have just as easily done something altogether different. ....... "The reality is that just when I thought I had missed something was the time that the stock had confirmed it was in a new trend...it was time to start watching it".
this is very ture. My wife and I discussed it for some time. My plan was to buy on the breakout. Had I left my order open i'd have been in. This has happened to me several times as well. After I gave up on it for "failing" it turns out it made a last run for the bottom . I got turned on to this stok in late 06' and have been watching casualy every since... some times not as casualy.
How did you get a sense that It would move further sidewasye and then drop back to 1.30 range? That is actually phenominal..I had a sense that it would pop of that consolidation... but that was the limit to my insight.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
scott;
I guessed that it was going to consolidate and drop back based on a few things:
1. Upper and lower trendlines forming a triangle, the vertex of which was at least a few weeks out. There just didn't seem to be enough momentum to break out early
2. The LR30 was above the candles creating more overhead resistance. Had it been underneath I would have thought differently
3. The price pattern was in the upper half of the bb20 while the entire bb20 looked like it wanted to head downward forcing the price down with it (of course, the reality is that bb20 is simply following price movement, not controlling it, but it's easier for me to think of it the other way around).
4. From there I just sort of approximated the middle of the range of recent prices and came up with the 1.30's
I'd love to think I was some genius but it was more of an educated guess that proved right...this time.
But, again, the important thing to review is the reality of the situation. I would recommend to anyone who wants to catch these kinds of moves to set aside a few hours, get a journal and pen, and go through the movement of this price 1 day at a time. Write down what you saw happening and begin building a library of your thoughts on patterns that you see.
I started doing that 4 or 5 years ago and it has made a phenomenal difference in my trading and investing. And I still do it. I just can't express strongly enough what this will do for anyone who invests the time to do it.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
"I'd love to think I was some genius but it was more of an educated guess that proved right...this time."
I think you sell your self short. Very good educating guessing IMO skates a fine line with insight.
As far as the above excercise could you give a briefe example?
Oh i'm having great sucess so far selecting stocks from my scan. I've only had a few transactions so far but It seems to be going well. I'm closing more good trades than bad which is a great start. But i'm alwayse up for aditional optimization.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
"As far as the above excercise could you give a briefe example?"
Do you mean the journaling exercise?
And, congratulations on the success you're having. Praise the Lord!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
yes the journaling exercise. Indeed praise the Lord.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Scott;
Sorry, took me a few days to get back to you on this.
This is so un-profound I feel stupid putting it in here but maybe it will help others realize there is no magic formula to putting your system down in writing, it's just a matter of doing it.
It's the process as much as it is what you write. The process of writing causes one to think more clearly. And, as I've said before, if you can't put it in writing, you don't understand it.
So the process of writing your system helps you know whether you really have a system or if you're just kidding yourself into thinking you do.
Here's a page from my journal from several years ago (I've tweaked some things since then but writing it down helped me think it through so I could tweak them):
"6/19/05 AM:
Buy @ doji or c>o, w/ low touching or very near lbb20 or bottomed out w/ lbb20 having bottomed then coming back up to form support.
After first breakout use 1-2-3 stop loss system.
Of course, use common sense. There will be occasional circumstances for which there are no rules. Because these will not happen often enough, there will be no rule for them. If they happen often enough they will create their own new rule."
Here's one more:
"6/20/05 AM:
Rule: On large breakaway use most recent resistance/now support for stop loss.
Rule: It is more likely for a stock to keep climbing whenever all BB's are closer together and price can jump from ubb13 to ubb20.
Rule: The stop loss system only applies when the stock's price climb says so! If it never gets that kind of momentum you have to give it more room. Look for the most obvious r/s line."
Last one:
"7/25 AM:
IMPORTANT: Don't ever buy a stock you wouldn't hold long term. A weak stock is a weak stock. If you can't trust it for the long haul, you can't trust it for a minute."
Scott,
I hope this helps.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |