| tllucero |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Tuesday, May 1, 2007 |
| Friday, December 30, 2011 3:27:03 AM |
158
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3-6 months I see markets down. I don't pick targets, either time or duration. Just check the numbers and the emotions (mine and the markets) daily or oftener.
Right now, China is looking at a hard landing. Somewhere in the France 1718-1720 range. Mississippi bubble territory. Or as certain advisors would say, grand supercycle territory.
If debt can't be paid, two options. Default or print. The world is tipping towards default. Worst possible scenario is default followed by print. I expect a breakup of both the European and American unions, followed by a lost decade, culminating in general war. But then I was always an optimist.
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QUOTE (johnlc) To be at least somewhat profitable, all you would have had to do is trade against the USD since Jan 1. or before. This so easy, it is unbelievable. Just enter and let it ride. Does anyone really think that DC is going to come close rectifying the value of the Dollar? Not a chance in hell. You all may as well jump on the band wagon and get to sit back and relax, watch the profits roll in. Hopefully you can make enough money betting against the Dollar before you retire. At this rate I may even vote for the big "O" this time. Then retiring "down under" may not be too bad of an idea.
Dollar vs. euro? From here in I'd take the dollar. And at some point the yen will collapse, as retirees need cash and cash in their yen bonds yielding less than Treasuries. Swiss france, loonie, and Aus$ will hold value. Dollar vs Gold, Silver, oil, DBA? Longer term, definitely commodities.
I've lost more than half my trading account at least five times, doubled it at least four. I finally know enough to break even; it has been a long education. Biggest thing for me was portfolio management.
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Neutral on IRM at this point - wouldn't think of being long here, but a good short entry was last week. I know the feeling.
I've worked out a cheesy way to flag my future longs and shorts, and up 6% since started using the method - 5 trading days ago.
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Interesting was that though the averages were up (multi-year highs!), some trader favorites (NFLX, CRM, LULU, RVBD) got pounded today. I call it rotation, and am looking for what good stocks have in common. The ones I mentioned have high revenue growth and even higher P/E. Also: the last few times we had a strong rally,, interest rates (10 year Ts) went up, but interest rates have been in free-fall last two weeks, even while the dollar has been weak. Topping it off, PM (especially silver) got whacked.
Everything except equities appeears to be pricing in deflation. I'm always worried. My market call here was bad, but picking saves again. Closed my CMA and VCI at a nice profit. Net flat at the close.
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I'm looking to share information that can't easily be tracked down in Telechart or Yahoo style information.
Example: what happened to MOT (Motorola)?
Answer: On 12/17/2010, new symbols MMI and MSI started trading, as Motorola prepared to split into 2 companies. However, old symbol MOT continued to trade until 1/3/2011. MSI should be considered the continuing stock. with a reverse split and dividend info available from Telechart and other sources. Some sources (Google) did not pick up the new symbols until 1/6/2011.
My first question. Bio-Rad (symbol BIO) has been around quite a while. Telechart has it going back to 1984. However, Yahoo only has historical data going back to 9/20/2010. Was there a merger, name change, symbol change, spinoff, or is Yahoo just missing the data?
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I've only worked down to 5 minute data, but much of this should hold to 1 minute data (but only with high-volume stocks/ETFs). For a long, I'd suggest up at least 4 of the last 5 5-minute periods, with stoch crossing 50, and also just up 4 of 5 intervals. For shorts (if you use them) just reverse this. If going down to 1 minute ticks, up at least 10-12 of the last 15 minutes (this is getting into where real-time/HFT data would be of value).
At one point, I was developing SW for real-time feeds (the feed cost almost as much as a full-time employee) , so have some knowledge of expert systems. PCFs can do some but not all of that. Remember a) backtest on a long enough period and b) all systems, even good ones, can and will fail.
Even with HFT systems roboeating profits, there's still signal on the table.
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Do remember your exit. Nice.
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What a difference a day makes. From 2nd to 13th. If only I'd stuck to the discipline (take profits).
THe good news is that the computer now agrees with me. I'll keep that in mind.
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Matter of fact, seen more clunkers in 2010 than I have since high school, when those students lucky enough to have a car had a used car, except for a few farmers' daughters who had to drive 100 miles/week.
Many untuned, 12+ years old, body damaged and not repaired, plastic in side windows, etc. And these are the ones that leap off the used dealers lots. Hate to think what's stuck there.
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No Camaros in Ohio. Of course, we have a Honda plant nearby. My last good car was a Ford with a Mazda engine. My last POS was a Dodge minivan. $500/months - that's repairs, not payments.
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