Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
I find that to be a possibility if you consider the following:
First - it has happened in the past it went from about 14000 to about 6500 in 2008. It also happened in 2000 with similar percentage of point drops. It happened in many other crissis as 1987, 1972, 1966, and on and on - corrections.
I am predicting dejavu all over again. Yes I understand that the technicals don't show that. But the technicals never show anything until it has happened or is under way.
I base this statement on what I see around me. Numbers are not measuring up to what we are told they are by the infamous tube.
1 - China's economy is slowing down and that regardless of the usual complains about the huge flow of exports will nonetheless hurt many american industries and service sectors that catter to the chinese.
2- Jobs are not returning. In fact jobs are still being chopped like lettuce heads on the cutting board still. Goldman Sach just anounced today by the way the elimination of 3500 jobs. Wait until July 1 with marks the new fiscal year for municipalities, and you will see how city, and state jobs are going to be chopped.
Folks this is happening already. Not to mention that the filling jobs after the industrial collapse were filled by cheap minimum wage service sector jobs.
3 - Greece - yes it is not done yet. They are just posponing the inevitable. You can fixed the credit problem of Greece by giving them more money. That is like trying to help a drunk by giving them more alcohol. Nonsense.
I know they say that the timing is not good, and that considering the anemic global economy that it would be suicidal. It is never the right time to confront the truth. The sad thing is that a time will come when it will have to be faced, and then the hole is going to be twice as deep. It will come - it is just a matter of time. And not a lot of time.
Greece fall will propagate throughout the european community and global financial institution like cancer.
4 - Companies are not expending money on helping the economy. In fact they are sitting on piles of cash during one of the lowest yield period in economic history.
On top of that I tell you what they are doing, and this is going to explain to you how the stock market went up in the last 2 years.
Companies are using cash to buy back their stock. Yes yes, but not their cash, instead they are using investors money to boost the stock up and keep buying on the way up with profits.
All of this while CEOs, and the like (insiders) are selling their stock. Kind of makes you wonder - ha?
But wait a second the FED just reported that the corporate debt went up from 6.7 TRILLIONS to 7.3 TRILLIONS in less than a year.
Lolo - borrow some money buy some more shares - all in the name of profits BUT the question is for who? Certainly not workers. Certainly not for the economy.
Get this now Non Financial Corporate debt is now about 50% of their net worth up by 10% since 2006. Hmmm???
Remember the people who know their company best is the CEO and related insiders - they are not buying a bit.
5 - So the Fed say that inflation is not existing. lolo. Inflation is in full bloom and you know that as well as I do. And I tell you what. If the FED continues the low interest policy of low rates THEN commodities are going to sky rocket. Yes yes you haven't seen anything yet. The will rocket while salaries continue stagnant.
6 - In case you haven't notice stocks are expensive. The sp500 EPS will be about $100 this year.
When earnings start declining and they will soon that $100 is going to look like $1000 and things will drop.
7 - Mortgages are still under water, and I don't even want to mention housing. Any questions there?
8 - And lastly in a few words - The recovery just isn't happening. I know I love america too, but the reality is that is going to take more than the last 2 years of agony to get out of this hole.
I would love to say, tomorrow is going to be a better day for me, and for my childrens. The truth is I have a very hard time visualizing that.
Stocks will correct again along with the economy. This doesn't stand the question of if, but only the question of when. And that when is not too far away. Keep it in mind.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
Blah, blah, blah. I'm glad to see you have access to CNBC as well.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
QUOTE (traderm30) Blah, blah, blah. I'm glad to see you have access to CNBC as well.
I will give you the exact turning technical point when this drop will begin.
Will CNBC give you that?
And by the way, I have neither cable nor network tv. I hate tv.
You were double wrong.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
QUOTE (Bill Baker) [QUOTE=traderm30]Blah, blah, blah. I'm glad to see you have access to CNBC as well.
Bill, I'm sure you know just consider the source.
|
|
 Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
Bill,
Just wanted to say, welcome to worden.com. Any substantive post on this board is appreciated.
I noticed your posts have recieved some friction. Don't want you to run off, as there is not a lot of content in many of the posts. (my posts are usually unreadable)
As far as technicals. I find Using DJ-30 and simple 13 ma over 26 ma on Weekly chart to set my trading bias, works well enough to prevent me from a melt down. And if you would have gone short in 11/2008 when the 13wk fell below the 52wk, you would have been a genius. ( i'm sure some did, or were already short. Me not so much. You could see it coming from 2004 just took 4 years for the mortgage a.w.r. to take us to the cleaners)
And you might notice if this rally fails here then the 13ma will cross down through the 26 and will probably give you the Downside you are looking for. And the price will be breaking the 52wk which hasn't occured since last MAY.
Of coarse in a Side-moving market this method is not too useful, as most MA's.
But as long as we are in these large swings from 14k ->6.5k -> 12.8k there is good money to be made.
Here I think if the DJ-30 breaks down again below 12150-140, we could fall to 11300-10600 area. And once you fall that far, will take some good news to move it back in the other direction.
The otherside, is this is a nice 1 week. rally to a key point of 12400...If more buyers come in to support the market, we could challenge the 12800, and possibly 13800 i.e. the 52wk would have held.
- thats my -NO- media just charts simple minded read.
Traderderm
- for the record I am negative on the year. Been up, been down. Some nice winners and some big pull backs. Any who. Was glad to here you have been doing well.
- love pthgreat's posts...some day I may figure something out... seems you have found a good rythme.
regards all.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
there is also a technical scenerio for a bear market as well, as shown by the technical weakness and potential triple top pattern. whether it confirms or busts remains to be seen. but until then, market cans stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/1/2005
Posts: 36
|
QUOTE (wwrightjuly4)
Bill,
Just wanted to say, welcome to worden.com. Any substantive post on this board is appreciated.
I noticed your posts have recieved some friction. Don't want you to run off, as there is not a lot of content in many of the posts. (my posts are usually unreadable)
As far as technicals. I find Using DJ-30 and simple 13 ma over 26 ma on Weekly chart to set my trading bias, works well enough to prevent me from a melt down. And if you would have gone short in 11/2008 when the 13wk fell below the 52wk, you would have been a genius. ( i'm sure some did, or were already short. Me not so much. You could see it coming from 2004 just took 4 years for the mortgage a.w.r. to take us to the cleaners)
And you might notice if this rally fails here then the 13ma will cross down through the 26 and will probably give you the Downside you are looking for. And the price will be breaking the 52wk which hasn't occured since last MAY.
Of coarse in a Side-moving market this method is not too useful, as most MA's.
But as long as we are in these large swings from 14k ->6.5k -> 12.8k there is good money to be made.
Here I think if the DJ-30 breaks down again below 12150-140, we could fall to 11300-10600 area. And once you fall that far, will take some good news to move it back in the other direction.
The otherside, is this is a nice 1 week. rally to a key point of 12400...If more buyers come in to support the market, we could challenge the 12800, and possibly 13800 i.e. the 52wk would have held.
- thats my -NO- media just charts simple minded read.
Traderderm
- for the record I am negative on the year. Been up, been down. Some nice winners and some big pull backs. Any who. Was glad to here you have been doing well.
- love pthgreat's posts...some day I may figure something out... seems you have found a good rythme.
regards all.
Prehaps to get this board rocking and rolling would be if someone where to post their trading Journal.
Hummmm
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/8/2007
Posts: 42
|
I kinda share Bill's sentiments.
I've always heard that the market likes to climb walls of worry. I guess it's true.
I personally can't see how the current market levels are justified. The Dow and SP500 is near it's all-time high, but we have extremely high unemployment and debt crises at home and all around. The only rationalization I can come up with is that much of the QE1 and QE2 money is inflating the stock market.
Keep your stop losses tight and pray.
Mike
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
I don't see a 40% pullback soon. None of the usual preconditions for such an event have surfaced.
Monetary conditions favorable
Sentiment favorable (bearish)
credit conditions favorable
corp profits good
interest rates low
--------
corporate profits are the drivers of the stock market, not unemployment or even GDP necessarily.
That being said, one has to acknowledge that tail risk is unusually high in this environment with peripheral euro debt problems. We are reliant upon bailouts to prevent contagion and then a 40% decline. One must assess whether bailouts will occur in order to have confidence in your market outlook.
It looks like bailouts and kicking the can will probably continue on and work a bit longer.;.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) I don't see a 40% pullback soon. None of the usual preconditions for such an event have surfaced.
Monetary conditions favorable
Sentiment favorable (bearish)
credit conditions favorable
corp profits good
interest rates low
--------
corporate profits are the drivers of the stock market, not unemployment or even GDP necessarily.
That being said, one has to acknowledge that tail risk is unusually high in this environment with peripheral euro debt problems. We are reliant upon bailouts to prevent contagion and then a 40% decline. One must assess whether bailouts will occur in order to have confidence in your market outlook.
It looks like bailouts and kicking the can will probably continue on and work a bit longer.;.
I would politely ask you to reconsider your preconditions.
Can you explain how they are favorable?
From my where I stand I see the following:
Monetary conditions favorable - I am not sure what you mean by that as the country now has the bigger deficit yet in history, and comtemplating another debt ceiling once again. If that is favorable then I suppose you are correct.
Sentiment favorable (bearish)
credit conditions favorable - Sure the problem is that neither that nor low interest have been able to repair the damage, and now the fed is out of resources.
corp profits good - that is a misleading statement. Corp profits are good if compared to a year or two ago. Compare them further back in time and then you will see.
As a fact, corporate has been the biggest borrower of money not to invest in their business and economy BUT to put into the stock market. What do you think has propelled the market in the last 2 years?
At the same time corporate insiders have been selling their shares of the companies that they are telling you are doing so well. Contradictory? I thought so.
interest rates low - ditto as above. That is as low as they can go, but the economic problems that were suppposedly going to be fixed by those low rates still remains.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (Bill Baker)
I would politely ask you to reconsider your preconditions.
Can you explain how they are favorable?
From my where I stand I see the following:
Monetary conditions favorable - I am not sure what you mean by that as the country now has the bigger deficit yet in history, and comtemplating another debt ceiling once again. If that is favorable then I suppose you are correct.
Sentiment favorable (bearish)
credit conditions favorable - Sure the problem is that neither that nor low interest have been able to repair the damage, and now the fed is out of resources.
corp profits good - that is a misleading statement. Corp profits are good if compared to a year or two ago. Compare them further back in time and then you will see.
As a fact, corporate has been the biggest borrower of money not to invest in their business and economy BUT to put into the stock market. What do you think has propelled the market in the last 2 years?
At the same time corporate insiders have been selling their shares of the companies that they are telling you are doing so well. Contradictory? I thought so.
interest rates low - ditto as above. That is as low as they can go, but the economic problems that were suppposedly going to be fixed by those low rates still remains.
1. you are confusing monetary and fiscal conditions. The Fed controls the money supply and short term rates. these are at 0% and money supply growth is positive. This is bullish. Nobody can dispute that this country has a debt and deficit problem (fiscal), but this is not an imminent threat to corporate profits...more something that must be resolved longer term before it causes an interest rate spike. The debt ceiling issue is a political one, and if the market goes haywire because they don't work it out in time, I would fade the #$% out of it because it will be a temporary reaction.
2. Corp profits ARE good... at all-time highs. Again you are confusing issues unrelated to your question about the stock market. Some companies are thriving, some merely doing fine, and others not so much. This is what makes a market. Emeging economies are growing rapidly. It's not just about the USA.
3. Agreed there are economic problems not being fixed by low rates - these are long term problems. We're in a cyclical bull within a secular bear market, I believe. I think it will continue longer and don't see a 40% drop in the near future unless they let Euro fall apart or the middle east erupts and oil goes to $200.
4. We're in the 3rd year of a presidential cycle...Obama is going to do everything he can to stimulate growth, just likely every other pres does. Thats why this is historically a good year for stocks.
Bond yields at historical lows, cash yields 0% - stocks are the best house on a bad block.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) QUOTE (Bill Baker)
I would politely ask you to reconsider your preconditions.
Can you explain how they are favorable?
From my where I stand I see the following:
Monetary conditions favorable - I am not sure what you mean by that as the country now has the bigger deficit yet in history, and comtemplating another debt ceiling once again. If that is favorable then I suppose you are correct.
Sentiment favorable (bearish)
credit conditions favorable - Sure the problem is that neither that nor low interest have been able to repair the damage, and now the fed is out of resources.
corp profits good - that is a misleading statement. Corp profits are good if compared to a year or two ago. Compare them further back in time and then you will see.
As a fact, corporate has been the biggest borrower of money not to invest in their business and economy BUT to put into the stock market. What do you think has propelled the market in the last 2 years?
At the same time corporate insiders have been selling their shares of the companies that they are telling you are doing so well. Contradictory? I thought so.
interest rates low - ditto as above. That is as low as they can go, but the economic problems that were suppposedly going to be fixed by those low rates still remains.
1. you are confusing monetary and fiscal conditions. The Fed controls the money supply and short term rates. these are at 0% and money supply growth is positive. This is bullish. Nobody can dispute that this country has a debt and deficit problem (fiscal), but this is not an imminent threat to corporate profits...more something that must be resolved longer term before it causes an interest rate spike. The debt ceiling issue is a political one, and if the market goes haywire because they don't work it out in time, I would fade the #$% out of it because it will be a temporary reaction.
2. Corp profits ARE good... at all-time highs. Again you are confusing issues unrelated to your question about the stock market. Some companies are thriving, some merely doing fine, and others not so much. This is what makes a market. Emeging economies are growing rapidly. It's not just about the USA.
3. Agreed there are economic problems not being fixed by low rates - these are long term problems. We're in a cyclical bull within a secular bear market, I believe. I think it will continue longer and don't see a 40% drop in the near future unless they let Euro fall apart or the middle east erupts and oil goes to $200.
4. We're in the 3rd year of a presidential cycle...Obama is going to do everything he can to stimulate growth, just likely every other pres does. Thats why this is historically a good year for stocks.
Bond yields at historical lows, cash yields 0% - stocks are the best house on a bad block.
Monetary and fiscal go together.
Corporate profits are not good - compare to more than just a couple years ago and you will see. What is at an all time high is corporate borrowing.
Long term problems include the short term as well.
and lastly I am not sure about the presidential cycle - may be may be not.
I agree with you that cash yields almost 0% - that is a tragedy.
Hope that the inmediate debt ceiling issue is resolved, and hope that european shenanigans don't actually become a reality. Just for starters. Then there will be some more to hope for jobs, housing, salaries, health care, employment. and on and on.
Most american don't have a clue the kind of hole we have digged for ourselves; it is going to take lots of climbing and it is my opinion that many more are going to run out of breath.
Unless the government does what is right for this country, and not what is good only for corporations and the elite of this nation.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
Well you asked for opinion...just giving you mine. I don't see a 40% drop this year.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
QUOTE (Bill Baker)
Unless the government does what is right for this country, and not what is good only for corporations and the elite of this nation.
This statement shows you know very little about even less.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) Well you asked for opinion...just giving you mine. I don't see a 40% drop this year.
Ben I appreciate your opinion, and I respect it. That is what makes a forum. I just disagree on some things.
And to a degree I may agree with you that the market may not drop 40% this year, but the odds of that happening are piling high.
Thanks for your opinions.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 158
|
3-6 months I see markets down. I don't pick targets, either time or duration. Just check the numbers and the emotions (mine and the markets) daily or oftener.
Right now, China is looking at a hard landing. Somewhere in the France 1718-1720 range. Mississippi bubble territory. Or as certain advisors would say, grand supercycle territory.
If debt can't be paid, two options. Default or print. The world is tipping towards default. Worst possible scenario is default followed by print. I expect a breakup of both the European and American unions, followed by a lost decade, culminating in general war. But then I was always an optimist.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
Just like alot of people predicted, this was just a false recovery from the crash. Doubt if DC will admit defeat, JUST PRINT MORE MONEY, BABY. If they default, then what? Politicians are here today and gone tomorrow , and receive all the lifetime benefits, they don't have to worry about their future $$$$$. Just what in the hell do they have to care about anything, other than the ego trip that they are on at the present. So what, we screwed up, just blame it on a different administration. Just make sure my retirement check is in the mail, no, on second thought the postal service is so inefficient, just direct deposit it.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) I don't see a 40% pullback soon. None of the usual preconditions for such an event have surfaced.
Monetary conditions favorable
Sentiment favorable (bearish)
credit conditions favorable
corp profits good
interest rates low
--------
corporate profits are the drivers of the stock market, not unemployment or even GDP necessarily.
That being said, one has to acknowledge that tail risk is unusually high in this environment with peripheral euro debt problems. We are reliant upon bailouts to prevent contagion and then a 40% decline. One must assess whether bailouts will occur in order to have confidence in your market outlook.
It looks like bailouts and kicking the can will probably continue on and work a bit longer.;.
sounds like typical conditions prior to previous bear markets.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (funnymony) there is also a technical scenerio for a bear market as well, as shown by the technical weakness and potential triple top pattern. whether it confirms or busts remains to be seen. but until then, market cans stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
and the neckline is broken.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
I'm bettin' on bust. Does Vegas post odds on this stuff?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
QUOTE (Bill Baker) QUOTE (traderm30) Blah, blah, blah. I'm glad to see you have access to CNBC as well.
I will give you the exact turning technical point when this drop will begin.
Will CNBC give you that?
All I know is, this cant be the top.
Bill Baker has not gven me the exact turning technical point yet.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
tomorrow's unemployment number must be a doozy, with all the selling today.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/8/2011
Posts: 58
|
QUOTE (diceman) QUOTE (Bill Baker) QUOTE (traderm30) Blah, blah, blah. I'm glad to see you have access to CNBC as well. I will give you the exact turning technical point when this drop will begin. Will CNBC give you that? All I know is, this cant be the top. Bill Baker has not gven me the exact turning technical point yet. Thanks diceman
LMAO!!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
BEND OVER AND KISS YOUR BUTT GOODBYE. China told us, do you believe that, we have to bow down to China, to get our S_ _ _ together. Basically you clowns in DC better make some big time changes or we're dumping your sorry ass.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
As displayed below, I had a system sell confirmation on 7-22, and confirmed on the weekly on the week of 7-25.
Sorry I didn't come running to tell you. I have been busy.
 
As indicated below the volume is confirming the selling and the 200 MA has been decisive
crossed and the first level of resistant as well.
.
It is my opinion that the triple A rating left untoched by the rating agencies is artificial - the current conditions initially stated in this post haven't changed much.
Nonetheless the 30 and 10 Yr bond rising rapidly - the yields falling sharply. In fact they haven't fallen this fast since the last financial crisis in 08.
And again that artificial heaven is just that, and we all know it. It seems inevitable that Q-3 is just around the corner.
A little more digging, a little deeper will get us by for now. Tomorrow is a whole different story.
And remember markets don't fall in just one day.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
By the way, I forgot to mention that the montly chart for the Dow has trigger a sell signal without confirmation yet. But of course the montly time frame takes time.
A confirmed sell will signal a return to the great bear we left in 09.
And in any case the high of 2011 is a lower high from 2006. The chart seems to be painting a clear picture.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
|
Hi Bill,
can't see your pics.
here's my monthly chart, sell signal since 4/30.
Top was predicted as of 8/31/09
if we close below the "A" at 1155.99 then next target will be 941.40
http://screencast.com/t/23e003VR
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
Opps! some kind of mess witht the pic. I will check later when I have a chance with the photo bucket.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
I have sell confirmation on the monthly.
It is funny as you can see some post above that I said just the day before the triple A rating were downgraded that the current triple rating then was artificial.
Well this correction was due long ago anyways.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/8/2011
Posts: 58
|
Way to go Bill. You truly are a hero in your own mind.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
QUOTE (Bill Baker)
Tomorrow is a whole different story.
And remember markets don't fall in just one day.
That's right, they just continue falling and falling and falling. Anyone for a $5 pool where it will stop? That may be all anyone has left to bet.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
Just realized that the DOW had no sell confirmation on the monthly. Sorry for the mistake.
I assumed I was looking at a different chart and thinking it was the DOW.
In any case, the DOW seems to be headed for that confirmation.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
|
QUOTE (johnlc) QUOTE (Bill Baker)
Tomorrow is a whole different story.
And remember markets don't fall in just one day.
That's right, they just continue falling and falling and falling. Anyone for a $5 pool where it will stop? That may be all anyone has left to bet.
Hey John. It is my opinion that things will get worse before they get better, but I think it may be light at the end of the tunnel if those clowns down in DC can get their act together.
Cheers.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
Hey John. It is my opinion that things will get worse before they get better, but I think it may be light at the end of the tunnel if those clowns down in DC can get their act together.
Cheers.[/QUOTE]
When was the last time DC got their act together? Not in my lifetime. Me, I'm dumber than a brick, but my dad who passed some time ago, was a very smart business man, never once did he gave those clowns in DC any credit for being able to run our country so that we would survive financially. Problem was the Dems were far worse at it than the Reps. The Dems would just accomplish financial ruin quicker. I don't know how much longer we can stand on the precipise? Could you imagine a finacial disaster that would last for years, when the baby boomer generation is retiring? Billions of $ lost from investments, people having to work for years longer than thay planned. Therefore no new jobs for college grads. Or corporations just kicking out 60+ yr. old employees. Maybe Reality Check was right, move to Costa Rica. Maybe learning a new language at 60 may not be too difficult. Trying to get your money out of US banks, transferring it to Swiss banks may be a problem.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
Don't sell yourself short John ...
In Rosetta Stone ... each lesson is between 30-45 minutes (depending mostly on you) ... and with just that investment in time every night ... you'll find yourself functional in 2-3 weeks ... and mildly conversational in 5-6 weeks ...
Watching Spanish TV will also help immensely ... after you reach that level ...
I'm still looking for just the right property ... though I'm closing in ... as I've been down 3 times in as many months ... looking for just the right little piece ... 7-10 acres ...
Land selling in the $60K-$100K/acre range ... though it is actually sold by the sq meter or hectare ,,,
At first I thought this may be a bubble ... but with a bit of research I found that real estate sales in the Atenas area over the last 10 years have been 95% cash ...
And to be honest ... knowing much Spanish really isn't a requirement ... as there is such a huge expat community there ... you will find most vendors, menus, etc to be bilingual ...
The president of Costa Rica just recently bought a 20 acre property in Vista Atenas ...
Mel Gibson recently bought a small mountain in the area ...
If you're the type of person that wants to live in a gated community with public water, public power, paved roads, etc ... you can get ~2.5 acre lots in communities like Vista Atenas, Hacienda Atenas, Roca Verde, Bella Luna, etc ... in the $140K range ... or even fully developed ... virtually new homes on these type lots starting in the 400K range ... all the way up to $1.25M range ...
Personally ... I'm more of an "out the country" type ...
My biggest problem is getting a flight ...
There is a direct flight to San Jose every day out of CLT ... leaves at 11:20am ... returns at 8:50pm ...
With very, very few exceptions ... that flight is booked through the end of the year ...
And it smells like a bank vault every time I take it ...
Folks are building lifeboats for themselves and thier families ... and they don't really care what it cost to build their families a lifeboat ...
If Costa Rica is out of reach ... you may want to look at the areas of Cuenca or Loja in Ecuador ... which are still fairly inexpensive ...
Costa Rica has been virtually untouched by the recent economic downturn because of the huge expat inflows ...
But Ecuador ... who no longer even has it's own currency ... but instead uses the US dollar ... was hit severely ...
And if the economy turns down again here ... they'll get hammered again ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
I predict that spot gold will hit $4000 an ounce, when that will happen no one knows. I feel if we experience another 40% retracement which is possible, it will present lasting bear tendencies to the market. Many things will have to take place for that to happen, and they are not currently present.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
gotta give credit to bill baker, a 40% decline seems a lot more possible now than it did when this was first posted. good job, Bill.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) gotta give credit to bill baker, a 40% decline seems a lot more possible now than it did when this was first posted. good job, Bill.
Dont start making me bullish.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (diceman) QUOTE (ben2k9) gotta give credit to bill baker, a 40% decline seems a lot more possible now than it did when this was first posted. good job, Bill.
Dont start making me bullish.
Thanks
diceman
And here we go +322
|
|
|
Guest-1 |