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the setup here looks good. Last summer was tricky but altogether this has been a solid market to be making good gains in.
Stocks and commodities are rocking. Beware QE2 ends in June though, so this could bring about more uncertainty...(as if there is such a thing as certainty!)
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Joined: 6/15/2008
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no sell in May, go away ?
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Joined: 1/28/2005
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It aint May yet. 
Thanks
diceman
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QUOTE (diceman) It aint May yet.
exactly!
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Good, so we have some time;
my kramed indicators tell me SPY will move to 141.37,
they also told me that 133.33 was the 1st initial target back in march.
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Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 158
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Interesting was that though the averages were up (multi-year highs!), some trader favorites (NFLX, CRM, LULU, RVBD) got pounded today. I call it rotation, and am looking for what good stocks have in common. The ones I mentioned have high revenue growth and even higher P/E. Also: the last few times we had a strong rally,, interest rates (10 year Ts) went up, but interest rates have been in free-fall last two weeks, even while the dollar has been weak. Topping it off, PM (especially silver) got whacked.
Everything except equities appeears to be pricing in deflation. I'm always worried. My market call here was bad, but picking saves again. Closed my CMA and VCI at a nice profit. Net flat at the close.
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QUOTE (tllucero) Interesting was that though the averages were up (multi-year highs!), some trader favorites (NFLX, CRM, LULU, RVBD) got pounded today. I call it rotation, and am looking for what good stocks have in common. The ones I mentioned have high revenue growth and even higher P/E. Also: the last few times we had a strong rally,, interest rates (10 year Ts) went up, but interest rates have been in free-fall last two weeks, even while the dollar has been weak. Topping it off, PM (especially silver) got whacked.
Everything except equities appeears to be pricing in deflation. I'm always worried. My market call here was bad, but picking saves again. Closed my CMA and VCI at a nice profit. Net flat at the close.
What is pricing in deflation? I don't know of any asset class. Commodities sky-high, credit spreads as tight as they get, pricing in utopia. deflation nowhere on the asset class radar...
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Inverted H&S formation projects a 100 point rise on the S&P 500....looking solid so far!
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market in correction mode.
ben right on que.
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QUOTE (funnymony) market in correction mode.
ben right on que.
http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=49102
You are funny...funnymoney...
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lol
futures -73
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and?
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.........and after all your chest thumping, your inverted head and shoulders is a "busted pattern."
and given the technical weakness and lack of volume, its not really a surprise.
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.....and yes, i know there still a flag there. we'll see if technicals can strengthen, so next breakout doesn't fail also.
since when is it a reason to buy stocks just because commodities are rising? rising stocks and rising commodities generally occur at the end of bull markets.
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QUOTE (funnymony)
since when is it a reason to buy stocks just because commodities are rising?
2009, 2010
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Joined: 1/12/2009
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QUOTE (funnymony) .....and yes, i know there still a flag there. we'll see if technicals can strengthen, so next breakout doesn't fail also.
since when is it a reason to buy stocks just because commodities are rising? rising stocks and rising commodities generally occur at the end of bull markets.
Add to that your assumption the bull market is finished based on rising commodity prices is even more laughable. Macroeconomics don't account for squat in this market and haven't for sometime.
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Joined: 3/8/2011
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We are definitely in for a decent sized correction. I don't know if any of you follow Bullish percent indicators, but they are pretty reliable. Right now they stand as follows:NYSE is in Bear Confirmed StatusNasdaq is in Bull correction but very close to bear confirmedS&P is in Bull correction but close to bear confirmedEnergy is in Bear correctionConsumer Discretionary is in bull correctionFinance is in bull correctionHealthcare has no status but is in a highly bullish stateInfo tech is bear confirmed.S&P Industrials Bear ConfirmedS&P Materials Sector Bear confirmed statusS&P Telecom bull correctionWhile the averages have been holding, and looking fairly good, the internals have been falling apart. It won't be long. The only thing that can save the market right now is if Benny Boy continues on with his quantitative easing after June.
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Sorry for the run-on sentences. When I posted that it was formatted and easier on the eyes.
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clacld: let me guess, you use Dorsey Wright, and also Google Chrome?
This would explain both issues... :)
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No google chrome, but definitely Dorsey Wright, and Jeremy DuPlesis.
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I should say I don't use anyone, but I do use pnf charting as well as pivot point charting.
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QUOTE (traderm30) QUOTE (funnymony) .....and yes, i know there still a flag there. we'll see if technicals can strengthen, so next breakout doesn't fail also.
since when is it a reason to buy stocks just because commodities are rising? rising stocks and rising commodities generally occur at the end of bull markets.
Add to that your assumption the bull market is finished based on rising commodity prices is even more laughable. Macroeconomics don't account for squat in this market and haven't for sometime.
where did i say the bull market was finished?
let me put this in simple terms for you. rising commodities is not a reason to buy stocks. techical strength is.
and looky here. dow -280.
maybe go back and re-read charting 101.
lmao.
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I wouldn't call an end to the bull market yet. Correction yes, but end of the bull market? Not necessarily. Bernanke can turn this market around in a heart beat. Needless to say, I am cautiously short, and I closed all of my longs at the end of April. Since I mostly day trade it really doesn't matter to me one way or the other to me.
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short of a miraculous turnaround this week, this bullish pattern is busted...and a deeper correction is likely in store near term
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not sure i'd want to be completely short here either. the market is churning, but the long term trend is still a bull. so i'm keeping an equal number of longs and shorts.
a 5 wave advance has been completed, financials and breadth indicators have been diverging for a while. commoditys etfs (dbc) are tracing out large h & s patterns, so a correction is in order, while a bear is possible, but still unconfirmed.
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QUOTE (ben2k9) short of a miraculous turnaround this week, this bullish pattern is busted...and a deeper correction is likely in store near term
Ben: how about something worse than just a correction.
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by by 12,000.
next stop the march low(and 200 dma).
no signs of a turnaround yet.
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So this is where the rubber hits the road... BTO SPY110630C125 contingent SPY @ 125.55.. Stop 124.
Price objective 128.75 6/17. STC. Theo price @ target: 87.5% gain.
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option expiration and economic data will make for an interesting week.
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QUOTE (johnlc) QUOTE (ben2k9) short of a miraculous turnaround this week, this bullish pattern is busted...and a deeper correction is likely in store near term
Ben: how about something worse than just a correction.
A correction is between 10-20% drawdown....based on current facts I don't see a worse than 20% correction in the cards at this time. But facts can change rapidly and markets can be irrational. But there's no double dip coming this year, second half economic numbers should improve markedly.
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Order cancelled. Increased supply for the spy at 129???
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QUOTE (ben2k9) QUOTE (johnlc) [QUOTE=ben2k9]short of a miraculous turnaround this week, this bullish pattern is busted...and a deeper correction is likely in store near term
A correction is between 10-20% drawdown....based on current facts I don't see a worse than 20% correction in the cards at this time. But facts can change rapidly and markets can be irrational. But there's no double dip coming this year, second half economic numbers should improve markedly.
Who really knows what lies ahead. Whats clear is june 1 was a key reversal day for the trend. My expectation is for a test of prior support at 1295/1310 at which point I'll enter into the SPY110630P129 ( SPY Jun5 11 129 Puts). I'll be shorting the rips intill the market proves I'm wrong.
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looks like harami time off the 200day. IF it holds.
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A correction is between 10-20% drawdown....based on current facts I don't see a worse than 20% correction in the cards at this time. But facts can change rapidly and markets can be irrational. But there's no double dip coming this year, second half economic numbers should improve markedly.[/QUOTE]
Summer months historically weak. Wall Street spending too much time yachting.
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sell in May and go away....
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Sitting here staring at the SPX I can't help but wonder if it will find support at the march lows, and 200dma starting a summer rally leading to new highs by late july/ August. Could uncle ben be right? Is this a merely a weak patch and not a sink hole?
Thinking about positioning in SPY110820C135 @ SPX 124/125. Me thinks the march lows and the 200ma are key chart supports that will hold.
Another interesting chart is aapl which is consolidating within a rising up channel and presently at key trend support at 126 its 200 ma, where it bounced nicely today.
So, my open positions right here right now are; SPY110630P129 which I'll exist @ 126/125ish
and SLV110716P35 with an eye on 32 (a break of which, IMHO will send it down to nect support @ 26/27.)
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It is my opinion the the last run of the market for the last 2 years at least, and I say at least because that marked the era of bailouts, is based on nothing else but that.
They didn't let the market reshuffled itselft, they made a fake market.
Has anything changed fundamentally as far as market valuations go since at least 2008?
Anyways, any technical event is based on fundamental conditions given enough time, and it is my opinions that in general time is telling us that this isn't working any longer.
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QUOTE (Bill Baker)
It is my opinion the the last run of the market for the last 2 years at least, and I say at least because that marked the era of bailouts, is based on nothing else but that.
They didn't let the market reshuffled itselft, they made a fake market.
Has anything changed fundamentally as far as market valuations go since at least 2008?
Anyways, any technical event is based on fundamental conditions given enough time, and it is my opinions that in general time is telling us that this isn't working any longer.
Who cares?
The SPX was 666 in 2009, it just hit 1370, was I supposed to watch it because it was fake?
Is China less fake?
How about the EU?
Thanks
diceman
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QUOTE (diceman) QUOTE (Bill Baker)
It is my opinion the the last run of the market for the last 2 years at least, and I say at least because that marked the era of bailouts, is based on nothing else but that.
They didn't let the market reshuffled itselft, they made a fake market.
Has anything changed fundamentally as far as market valuations go since at least 2008?
Anyways, any technical event is based on fundamental conditions given enough time, and it is my opinions that in general time is telling us that this isn't working any longer.
Who cares?
The SPX was 666 in 2009, it just hit 1370, was I supposed to watch it because it was fake?
Is China less fake?
How about the EU?
Thanks
diceman
Where did I say that you weren't supposed to watch the SPX?
I hope you did something else than watch it. Like trade it or invest in it.
Who cares? Not sure.
All I alluded was to the fact that if you have profits from the last bull, you may want to cash if you haven't yet as I expect further correction.
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QUOTE (Bill Baker)
Where did I say that you weren't supposed to watch the SPX?
I guess with fake market, bailout market, fundamentals haven’t changed,
it was difficult to tell what a screaming bull you were.
Invest?
Invest in a bailout market?
Invest in a fake market?
No thanks, I’ll let others invest in a market where the fundamental
valuations haven’t changed since 2008.
See, I’m one who’s in the know also.
(shhhhhhhh, don’t tell anyone what’s coming)
Thanks
diceman
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