Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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I have a basic scans that looks for stocks above a certain price/volume criteria, having an "up" day today on at least 1.5 x 45 day avg volume. Usually I get 100-200 hits (on a bad day like a few last week, less than 100, on a good day, maybe 300).
Today it returned 723 hits
???????
Of these, 129 were MACD-H=100 (I only counted 48 of 120 likewise down stocks at MACD-H=0).
I've never seen a day like this with such unusual volume. Anybody else notice anything weird in their scans today?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I saw in another post that you liked:
V/XAVGV45>1.5
I added up/down days:
C>C1 (up)
C<C1 (down)
I looked at the last 5 days in the
all stocks watchlist for true conditions:
UP= V/XAVGV45>1.5 and C>C1
Down=V/XAVGV45>1.5 and C<C1
DAY----UP----DOWN
------------------------------
THUR---638-----508
FRI------258----965
MON----978-----949
TUE-----981----740
WED---1971----912
Most of the drama has been on the buy side.
Interesting that Fridays down day did not
really impact the down number.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Interesting analysis Diceman - I would have to say that's pretty bullish.
Maybe that's an indication that this little pullback is over and the money's coming back in on the long side - or is that just shorts covering themselves after Tuesday afternoon's reaction to the Fed - if so, that indicates lack of faith on the short side. Either way, bullish...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Forgot to mention - on Friday, after the nasty day on Friday - I counted 11 MACD-H=0, and about 115 MACD-H=0. Quite a turn-around.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Hohandy & Diceman my scans for Momentum & Institutional buying are way above normal (IN the above $10 range) That usually means a powerfull trading session. The pre-market futures are down right now so the markets might open weak, but I think they will finish strong.
(IMO)
Hohandy you might be right about the correction nearing its end. Or this could just be a fake-out.. 
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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If I were you guys I wouldn't read to much into those numbers.
About a year ago, I wrote a program module that gives me similar results of up stocks vs down stocks for the day.
I was hoping that I could use these daily results as an indication of the future direction of the market for at least the next 2 trading days but it doesn't work that way unfortunately.
These numbers will only tell you what happen that day. It is definitely no indication of how things will be tomorrow. Sorry.
But, generally speaking, the left set of numbers from day to day says that if the nextday's number drops it's an indication that the traders are going to "Cash" i.e. they are Selling As Prices Are Dropping (selling into weakness) when the right-hand set of numbers has risen from the previous day Or they are Selling As Prices Are Dropping (selling into strength) when the right-hand set of numbers are dropping from the previous day.
Likewise, generally speaking, the left set of numbers from day to day says that if the nextday's number rises it's an indication that the traders are Buying on Strength when the right-hand set of numbers has droppend from the previous day Or they are Buying on Weakness when the right-hand set of numbers has risen from the previous day.
But, again the indicators only tell you what has happened; not what will continue to happen for the nextday.
Sorry.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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With the volatility in the markets over the past few weeks, I gave up trying to predict market direction. Right now I like cash.........not very exciting to be sure, but fairly stable.
Good luck trading today. Bet you'll need your prilosec by the end of the day..
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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MP - The thing is, I'm not looking just at stocks up vs. stocks down - I'm looking at stocks up *with volume*. I've been running this particular scan daily for at least 5-6 years now, and the highest I ever remember it being was about 400+ hits, once. The norm is much much lower, and a normal extreme is still a whole lot lower. I don't recall saying that it was a portent of what was going to happen *today* - but still it is such a huge outlier and so "off the charts" that I would like to figure out what it means, if anything.
Did you notice anything unusual in your scans yesterday?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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my simple aproach scan tends to average about 40-60 ... on weak days it tends to be even lower... When there is followthrough in the market it will show me a few oportunities before the main market moves but generaly speaking my signals come on the day of a market move. I quit trying to predict a while ago ... I now consider it moving, up or down ... moving up but at high risk to go long or moving down but at high risk to be short (recent extroridanary gains) or sidewayse.
We are seeing allot more action for the summer than we normaly do.
My scan yesterday was 266 I wan't shure how to take that either. I'm thinking of making another spreadsheet to track my scan numbers by date and the resulting market activity for the following day. My intuition is that that meant either a whipsaw was coming or the bounce over bounced! It dosent make sense for there to be a true rally here...I don't think we will go much lower but I don't think this is it either.... we need to stabalize here a bit.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Hohandy,
No, I did not see anything unusual yesterday in my result set.
I didn't mean to simplify what my program module does by simply reducing it to up vs down stocks for the day. My result set for these numbers is determined with a little more complication than that.
Unfortunately, I don't remember exactly how I programmed it back then but as of the present I just know what the resulting numbers mean to me (as I have state above).
The numbers come from a very select group of up to 300 stocks where my program gets a read on them on a daily basis (and it is not always the same group of stocks -- I don't pick them, my program does).
Here are my numbers since last Thurs:
THUR---80----184
FRI----68----211 getting out on weakness
SAT----67----207 getting out on strength
MON----68----182 buying on strength
TUE----98----185 buying on weakness
The fact that the right-hand column is in the triple digits instead of the left-hand column indicates to me that there is still more negative sentiment in the market from day to day than there is positive sentiment.
The fact that either of these columns is displaying numbers above 50 indicates to me that there is a whole lot of traders in the markets right now i.e. lot of market participation from day to day.
Shortly after 911, I had a similar program module that had numbers in the single digits
for both columns (something like 4 on the left and 9 on the right).
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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That's a really interesting program you have there MP - is that Telechart-based or is that based on a different? I'd be really interested in hearing more about it
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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QUOTE (hohandy) That's a really interesting program you have there MP - is that Telechart-based or is that based on a different? I'd be really interested in hearing more about it
No, I write my own software to analyze the markets.
I would call that particular module one of my utility programs -- A very small part of everything I've done or am doing presently.
mp
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Registered User
Joined: 2/9/2005
Posts: 42
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QUOTE (Apsll) Hohandy & Diceman my scans for Momentum & Institutional buying are way above normal (IN the above $10 range) That usually means a powerfull trading session. The pre-market futures are down right now so the markets might open weak, but I think they will finish strong.
Couldn't resist quoting you. What a day!
Clearly hedge funds are selling everything to meet redemption obligations, which means they are selling the Large Caps. Small caps held up fairly well but I expect a major market meltdown over the next few months as all the leveraging will unravel.
It could be very substantial and kill even the bull.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I am getting big numbers on my scans again for today. (Momentum & Institutional) and like yesterday the pre-market futures are very negative.
Since yesterday was bad I am assuming that today will be more of the same. So I asked myself how am I getting so many momentum & institutional charts on my scans???
I found the answer in the Hemscott industry groups.
First I un-flagged all stocks in the system, and then flagged only the charts in my scans for momentum and institutional buying. (there were some overlaps but all total I ended up with 341 charts) I looked at the charts and inspite of the falling markets all these charts are doing very well.
I sorted the Hemscotts by price percent change one month and then started to look at each group by their individual components (or company charts). I found that the top 20 groups had a scattered or random amount of my flagged charts but the big one that surprised me was Integrated Circuits . With 37 charts (way more then any other of the top 20 industry groups). In second place was Scientific & technical Instruments with 17 charts. And in third place was Industrial Elec' with 16 charts.
Now this type of analysis is not my strong suit, but it appears that inspite of the bad markets, there is some accumulation going on in these industries..
I would like some feedback by some more knowledgeable folks than I.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I have been getting all types of "Technology" in
my strength scans.
Computer, internet, software, wireless, telecom.
I think it because they are not felt to be "tied into"
the credit markets.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Good analyses - I've also noticed that Diagnostic Substances group is flying away and doing very well since the troubles began
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