Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 4
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Any thoughts/comments?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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Miss Pea, the way I see it I have the world's best stock scanner, TC, and can search to my heart's content for better stocks to play than SIRI...something on the order of 7,000, maybe 10,000 if you add bulletin board stocks. I'm speaking from a short to medium term perspective as a trader; however, nothing wrong with speculating for a long term play on it...buy a few shares and check back in a year later to see how it's doing:)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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Totally agree with fpetry. MS, TSV, BOP, MACD etc are in current downtrends. Not really the best time to buy this one yet. 
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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Miss pea , although I agree with FP there are lots more great targets out there ... right now mine are FNSR, GIGM, TGB, CUP, SLW. However with that side SIRI is trading in a range between around 5.9 and 7.6. it is currently trading at around 6.28 and the daily / weekly stochastics (7,3,3) are both looking over sold. I think that this stock has the potential to go to to 7.6 in the short term ...about 4 weeks based on the waves of the trading range. 1.4 on 6.28 = 20 % ...nice target .
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Looks like a good short to me.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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HaveNoCents ..short !!! mmm .. interesting. Only if it breaks below 5.80. Closed on friday at 6.28 .. lets watch it over the next week. I think it is a long candidate. Jan 14th insider buying by Chief executive office ..100,000 shares at 6.2 = positive , high volume on wednesday / Thursday into the sell off = positive as there was a selling peak ( equivolume charting this is bullish) , Howard Stern got bonus as Sirius exceeded subscribership set out in his original agreement, all of sirius radios products were flying off the shelves at xmas time ...some items were hard to get (this from news report).
From forbes on Jan 13th
Caris & Company Equity Research analyst Susan Kalla upgraded Sirius Satellite Radio to "buy" from "above average" and raised the price target and earnings estimates based on expectations for better-than-expected subscriber additions in fiscal first quarter 2006.
So from a news stand point the stock is bullish. The reason that the stock has dropped is because investors were nervous that the Howard Stern would off load his shares all at once , the liel hood is that he has or will sell some to cover his tax bill on the shares, but will hold on to the balance
From a technical standpoint the pull back offers a buying oppertunity , the stock is close to the bottom of is trading range and the stochastics and cci are indicating that the stock is oversold on both the daily and weekly charts. Also the TSV and MS have both turned up from a bottom.
This a buy for me on Monday
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I have no doubt that sirius will eventually win the satellite radio battle. If you are looking for a long term trade then there is no doubt it will be higher a year from now than it is today.
If you're looking for a short term trade, remember one thing. This stock has been making lower highs and lower lows since December 12th. The short term trend of the stock market in down. This is not the time to be taking on any new long positions in my opinion.
If I can short it in the 6.45 range I will.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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QUOTE (malcolmb14)
...
From a technical standpoint the pull back offers a buying oppertunity , the stock is close to the bottom of is trading range and the stochastics and cci are indicating that the stock is oversold on both the daily and weekly charts. Also the TSV and MS have both turned up from a bottom.
This a buy for me on Monday
The bottom of the trading range is 5.80 about 7% lower than now, that would be a much better price. As far as stochastics, it depends on the time period the two that I look at are about neutral. Buy if you must, but be prepared for a slide, IMHO.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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bknight .... you are right about the trading range, but it hit the bottom of the range two days ago. The interesting thing I like about this stock is that the stochastics (simple 7,3,3)have formed higher lows on the last three waves. Also I use a custom cci indicator this has formed a treble bottom . If this was the price chart then buyers would be all over it as a treble bottom is very bullish. I still maintain this has about $1 up side potential to it in about a 4 week window if the wave completes back to the top of the trading range.
Havenocents .. short ratio was 7.8% as of December 12th .... the top of the trading range. Someone cashed in. Hopefully they covered at the bottom of the trading range close to $5.8. I think this is the wide range bar on Jan 12th which has higher than normal volume associated with it.
I like the discussions on this chat ...specially havenocents ....he / she always plays devils advocate. It makes you pause for more thought on the trade.
As always trade to trade well .... not to make money ...the money will come if the trade is good .
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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QUOTE (malcolmb14) bknight
I like the discussions on this chat ...specially havenocents ....he / she always plays devils advocate. It makes you pause for more thought on the trade.
I am a "he" and I have important advice to all. Never take financial advice from anyone with a name of "havenocents". There must be a reason why this guy has no cents!!!!!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/26/2005
Posts: 2
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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perhaps he may have no cents,but a lot of dollars
gary b
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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So far this one has worked out for me. I was able to short it at 6.33.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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nice play Havenocents ..I eat my words ! However stochastics and cci have been bouncing around in the oversold area for a while now ... while price is still coming down. I reckon if this one does move to the upside it will be fast. On a longer term (weekly) this stock really is still in a long (1 year ) consolidation pattern . The stock went from 0.9 to 9.5 in two years and has been consolidating ever since.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I expect it to get into the 4.53 range before it hits strong resistance. I've got it plotted in a 2% regression channel right now. If it breaks that channel I will cover. In fact, if it breaks that channel I just may cover and go long. I still think this is a great stock to own long term.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I expect it to get into the 4.53 range before it hits strong resistance. I've got it plotted in a 2% regression channel right now. If it breaks that channel I will cover. In fact, if it breaks that channel I just may cover and go long. I still think this is a great stock to own long term.
Havenocents;
I'm just beginning to understand LR. Your mention of a regression channel intrigues me. Perhaps you have shared how you set up a regression channel for tracking your stocks, if so could you point me to it?
Happy Charting
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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This is where I deviate from Stan Weinsteins formula. I use his formula to find stocks to purchase, but I don't use his formula on when to sell a stock. I use a 50 day linear regression with a 20 width which calculates to a 2% standard of deviation. This seems to match my trading style which is to hold a stock for 30-180 days. If it breaks out of the channel, I am out of the stock. If a stock has had a large move up, I use a standard trendline of the lows and sell on the break of that trendline.
I look at support and resistance to determine my risk vs reward, but I always sell based on channel or trendline. It does get you of the stocks earlier than his "150 day moving average", but it also frees up your money to invest in another stock with a good risk reward.
Stocks are boring to me when they break trend or channel. They can sit around for months consolidating. I look at consolidation as dead money. I lose potential profit for the chance to start the process all over again.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I failed to mention ONE IMPORTANT THING. Since the regression channel moves with the price it is possible for the stock to be going down and stay within the channel. Normally when the slope of the channel begins to change I trendline the stock's lows or highs depending on whether I am long or short, and trade the break of the trend.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/28/2005
Posts: 15
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[quote=HaveNoCents] If it breaks out of the channel, I am out of the stock.
If it breaks the channel to the high side...or just the low side?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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just the low side on a long, and the high side on a short.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/28/2005
Posts: 15
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) just the low side on a long, and the high side on a short.
OK - I thought maybe I misunderstood you.
Another related question. I mostly buy stocks that have seen a recent increase in volume and price. I'm too impatient to buy a stock that "should" be going up sometime soon. However, I often sell way too early (but better early than late). I have been playing with the 2% regression channel and it seems to provide a better method than what I am doing now. (But I only follow my own rules about 85% of the time anyway)
However, if you buy a stock that has jumped, it is more than likely already outside of the channel. Do you limit yourself on a given percentage above the channel that you will buy at so that even if it drops to near (but not below) the bottom of the channel you are not out too much? For instance, if a stock is 4% above the top of the channel, it would be about 8% above the bottom of the channel. If you normally would not want to lose more than 8%, then you would find youself not buying any stocks at over 4% above the channel.
Do you have a set value above the channel that you will not buy a stock, or do you just take whatever losses the channel may give you at the bottom if things don't go as planned?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I never add to my position when a stock is above the channel. I buy based on a stocks 150ma. The 150ma needs to be level or rising, and the price needs to be above it. The market sector needs to be above it's 150ma as well. Chances are when I buy a stock like this it will be above the channel because it has been level for quite some time, or only slightly rising.
If I add to a position that has been profitable, I will add to it while it is at the bottom of the channel. I have no set values. I use only visuals.
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