Registered User
Joined: 3/12/2005
Posts: 32
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Hello All,
I am new to posting here and had to draw my points free hand so I hope you will forgive me if they seem out of scale til I get he hang of things. I wanted to offer some thoughts on the coming week for the S&P Index, but really the greater trend in general. I post this because I believe a major move is imminent.
On this weekly chart as of Fridays close:
1. Gann 1 x 1 Angle resistance is immediately overhead @ 1204.25
2. EMA support initially gives a speed bump @ 1185.00
3. 50 % of the range from October 26th low to March 05 highs would be first support @ 1160.00
4. Any motivated selling would not catch further support until the Gann 1 x 2 angle down near 1136.25 - but that would be a bit much wouldn't it.
*July 8th is a Gann Anniversary Date* - If you look - historically - we get important moves on or near July 8th. It was the exact low of the Great Depression on July 9th 1932. More recently tho; take a look at July 8th 2002: This date was the beginning of a -1,878.00 point drop in the DOW between 7/8/2002 and 7/24/2002.
Now there is a second chart I would like to offer, which is the Square Of 9 chart, again for the S&P:
Note this weeks close on the S&P Cash of 1194.44 - this was a Square of 9 support target off the March highs of 1229.00. If this fails with any real downward momentum; other fear & loathing support targets will be:
1181.00->1166.00->1149.00->1130.00
In terms of the GREATER CYCLE - again - the salient factor will be what does or does not occur near Friday July 8th 2005.
Just my thoughts for the time being. Good trading all!
KingCAMBO
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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It is amazing how complex we can get to just come to the same simple conclusion.
SP500 has made a lower high about mid June, if we make a lower low then I would be on red alert. Support levels are all easily drawn from price chart. This is all visible from just simple looking at the chart.
$indu shows the same pattern, but here you can get a real insight by looking at volume.
Good luck King.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/9/2005
Posts: 71
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I agree with simplicity. Theory of technicals is good to understand yet as a former technician I found the deep focus on theories usually & quickly cause paralasys because of over analyzing. Sincerely, you are farther ahead to consider what causes an issue to move. Bottom line is movement = profit / loss condition. Consider looking at the stocks that split in the last 12 months. Did they move around the time they split? Usually $10+ from a month before to about 2 months after. Events move the issues like earnings, scandals, takeovers, MA crossovers. I hope I do not seem like an ambulance chaser with these ideas though we all as traders need action to cause an issue to be exploited for a chance to realize a yeild from it. The more predictable the event the better we might plan a strategy around it. I favor splita a lot, obviously as they simply just move and as a person who seeks profits that is my language.
Happy trading
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Registered User
Joined: 3/12/2005
Posts: 32
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Very good points guys. One of the curses of being a chartist, is it of course gives you a bias, which when wrong has you on the bad side of a trade (1) and keeps you out of the right side of the trade (2) because your waiting for your bias to be proven right.
I am still focused on the 8th for now, to tell me where we are going. Today was interesting no doubt, but was there any real teeth?
Cheers!
KC
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 37
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So, where's the volume? to sustain a rally? With all due respect to the special technical measures we can build in TC, excluding the energy sector volume - the balance is putrid. Rising on hot air allows a quick descent once cooled. How does the market achieve a follow through when in total the volume is below the 50DMA AND that includes very heavy volume in energy? Will energy continue to carry this market on its back? What am I missing in this picture? 
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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That is right Tom your observations are mostly accurate. Where is the volume? It is in the distribution days - 3 of which occur in the last 8 market days. Will energy carry the market on its back, I doubt it. But who knows. Remember the market is not logical.
Who said the market is about to take off? Nobody. The underline of this topic is a very possible market retracement. King brought it up with his fancy technical analisys - to me that is all in the past - this days I aim for simplicity and making money. The market is already in retracement since the highs of June - ( well the lower highs ), and until i see a higher high i will not declare take off. If on the other hand it makes a lower low (cutting down April's) then I will declare red alert.
Also notice that we have been between red alert and take of for about 6 months now - so who cares. Just take one day at the time.
This is a daytrader point of view.
Good luck Tom.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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>>Just take one day at the time.<<
The "daytrader point of view" certainly uncomplicates things and says to hell with macro forecasting in the indexes. And I bet that of late the seasoned daytraders have beaten other trading styles. I'm not a daytrader (but a swing trader) and I like to take the point of view of "just take one stock at a time." I flip through my scans three or four times a day and if a stock's chart pops up that I like, I usually take it regardless of what the chart for an index looks like. Sure, I take cues and feel for the overall direction of the market, but basically blot all that out if the individual chart gives me the signals I look for. An uptrending market will give me frequent buy candidates and keeps me very active as I move in and out of positions; sideways and/or low volume market and I slow way down, and so on. And this all happens automatically for me; I never set out in advance to conciously be more active or less active because of what the overall market conditions are. I am firm believer in the KISS principle.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/19/2005
Posts: 5
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kingcambo,
Thanks for sharing your charts. I find them fasinating! I think according to Gann theory, you also give it 2 days leeway either way. So July 6th to July 10th is/was the projected dates. We may have seen the change occur today, don't be so fixated on the July 8th day. Last Friday there was heavy volume in the spx 1130 puts, which is one of your projected lows. Hmmmm. And I thought it was some hedge fund just protecting their longs against a terrorist attack on the 4th of July weekend. Where do you get that 2nd chart? Is there a website you use to get it? Please inform, it's good to know as much info as you can get!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/12/2005
Posts: 32
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Well two sessions left before the expected change in trend hopefully gives us a sign; for good or ill... Some DOW thoughts:
1. We have spent enough time beneath EMA support now to conclude that failed support has become new resistance on a daily basis.
2. It fair to say we have been in a distributing market for what seems like eons - the DOW 10K to 10.5K ++ shuffle. But that distribution zone is getting thinner - and this is often times a harbinger that the trap door is about to spring.
3. The trusty 1 x 1 angle: (1 unit of price for 1 unit in time would be a balanced market). We cant seem to crack it although there have been plenty of attempts since it was breached back on June 3rd.
Something has gotta give here soon or it is going to be a very long summer. Still watching 7/8/2005 for the "tell".
Good Trading All!
KingCAMBO
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Registered User
Joined: 3/12/2005
Posts: 32
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Last weeks "bomb this" big rally is impressive to say the least; but in my mind suspect at best. It smells very much like the Plunge Protection in team propping things, and keeping the world safe from democracy.
If you have a 24 hour data provider; you will see that the S&P had a post bombing overnight low on the S&P LARGE CONTRACT of 1167.00. Going in to Thursday the e-mini's had an average true range of just under 8 points. That it rallied over +40.00 S&P points in just two sessions, following a boogey man attack, can only be the work of those with their own cash printing press.
Be this as it may, we are still now right back to vacillating in the distribution zone, the very same area that smart money has been working for all of 2005. That zone is of course Dow 10k to Dow 10.5 - 10.6K.
What happens from here will make for a curious summer. We have a very important weekly resistance angle overhead at 1229.00 on the S&P. This is a hard Square Of 9 angle as drawn from the March 24th 2000 highs of 1552.00
Good trading all!
KingCAMBO
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Registered User
Joined: 3/12/2005
Posts: 32
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A very wild ride over the past 10 days with impressive resilience be it manufactured or just plain giddyness.
We are moving in to another critical window time cycle wise this Friday; July 22d. Below are some thoughts I have for important support and resistance parameters for the coming week; as calculated from the Square Of 9:
1. DOW Resistance pivots: @ 10754.55 & 10858.51 - DOW Support pivots: @ 10364.49 & 10161.88
2. S&P Resistance pivots: 1256.94 & 1274.73 - 2. S&P Support pivots:@ 1198.07 & 1163.70
3. Nasdaq 100 Resistance pivots:@ 1607.33 & 1627.33 - Nasdaq 100 Support pivots:@ 1542.50 & 1503.47
4. Russell 2000 Resistance pivots:@ 682.38 & 695.51 - Russell 2000 Support pivots:@ 648.41 & 623.19
Over the past month it has been the Russell 2000 that has shown the most Bullwinkle tendancies. I would look then to this index to be the harbinger of any real change in trend; should such a CIT begin to manifest.
Important dates looming for a change or acceleration of trend are July 22nd, August 1st & August 19th.
Good Trading All!
KingCAMBO
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Registered User
Joined: 3/12/2005
Posts: 32
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A very wild ride over the past 10 days with impressive resilience be it manufactured or just plain giddyness.
We are moving in to another critical window time cycle wise this Friday; July 22d. Below are some thoughts I have for important support and resistance parameters for the coming week; as calculated from the Square Of 9:
1. DOW Resistance pivots: @ 10754.55 & 10858.51 - DOW Support pivots: @ 10364.49 & 10161.88
2. S&P Resistance pivots: 1256.94 & 1274.73 - 2. S&P Support pivots:@ 1198.07 & 1163.70
3. Nasdaq 100 Resistance pivots:@ 1607.33 & 1627.33 - Nasdaq 100 Support pivots:@ 1542.50 & 1503.47
4. Russell 2000 Resistance pivots:@ 682.38 & 695.51 - Russell 2000 Support pivots:@ 648.41 & 623.19
Over the past month it has been the Russell 2000 that has shown the most Bullwinkle tendancies. I would look then to this index to be the harbinger of any real change in trend; should such a CIT begin to manifest.
Important dates looming for a change or acceleration of trend are July 22nd, August 1st & August 19th.
Good Trading All!
KingCAMBO
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Registered User
Joined: 7/9/2005
Posts: 8
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That is all great from a Technical Analysis point of View. GANN felt that the markets moved in Patterns up & down & that one might be able to draw conclusions & anticipate the markets next move. That is for the post that said Gann's Theory was Complex it is not. However Everone is missing the bigger point ! Money Moves the Markets & remember this Big Money Goes Where Money Can Grow. There fore you are missing out ot on Liquidity Flow Analysis : One Can divide the market's participants into 4 groups. (1) Odd Lotter's - Indivudal investors, This Group is usually on the wrong side of the market. (2) Instutional investors - Mutual Funds, One Typically sees a lot of Money Flow - Quuaterly Heavy Months OCT & April Next. (3) Instutions for their own Accounts. { Investment Banks & Their Brokerages for their own accounts. } They are the ** SMART Money. (4) Indivudal Instutional Investors. Also Considered Smart Money. Remember if Mutual Funds & or Instutional Investors are buying they will Lift the underlying issue just by sheer Volum. The Main Reason that the Markets have risen are due to a ** TAX Amnesity ** That was passed in January of 2005. That allowed Corporations with Overseas Operations to Invest Monies back into the U.S. Tax Free. This is a one time deal good for 1 year. So Far there is approx : 5 Billion slated to be reinvested back into the U.S. in the fourm of Stock Repurchases. (ie) The Companies purchase their own shares. That has led to Instutions {knowing} which companies are Reinvesting into their own issues to become buyers of those underlying issues. Hence the move upwards this year. Now for the interesting part only Approx : 1.5 Billion of the expeced 5 Billion has so far flowed into theses issues. That Leaves approx: 3.5 Billion to hit yet. Also every-one here so far has forgotten about the 4 Year Business Cycle which interstingly enough coincides with the Election Cycle. Hence Historical Analysis Also look into Seasonal Analysis. Fundamentaly a lot of companies are over priced now. Note A lot of Companies are at their psychological piviot point. Fibonacci Re tracements. For more on Float Analysis which touches on Liquidity Flows : (removed by Moderator)
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