| TomG18 |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Thursday, December 2, 2004 |
| Monday, November 1, 2010 5:15:35 PM |
37
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Several brokers provide the capability to "trigger" or "preset" order entry for certain conditions. Only after the trigger/preset conditions are met does the order get triggered (created). This seems to prevent the ever watchful eye of the market maker from seeing these orders (stops, buys, limit orders, etc.) until the conditions on which you want them to trade actually occur. Suddenly, there they are. Live market orders based on the conditions you set. Your stop (buy/sell), limits, etc. are only in play once your conditions are met. Anybody have experiences (good, bad, ugly)to share on this side of managing stops? 
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Please allow me one more small contribution: The government's own figures reveal that the economy has been floating on consumer spending that has been coming from . . . . yep, the net worth of the consumer. July was the largest drawdown on consumer "savings" in many years. I'm not talking about a decline in the "savings rate". New money into the economy has occurred because consumers have been cashing assets to meet expenses. Include this into your economic equation and it suggests a hefty recession is on the way. And, one last semi-political comment: Forrest Gump had it right . . "Stupid is, as stupid does"
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Would one of you fine gentlepersons kindly present a brief explanaton of what all this math is about? Why is DEMA, etc. better than any other technical tools? What are it's downsides/weaknesses v other indicators. Thanks! Again, nice job on the math!!
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Maybe overbought? Other movers . . . . (also maybe over bought)
CTE, ALNY, CAFE, JCTCF, IDBE, EFII, SHFL, RMI, ADTN, FTG, . . . . .
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PS> MG325 Industry group is uninspiring. Down over 15% from start of year. And, daily decline for overall group today (below 50DMA). CVO's price performance certainly not related to any fundamentals of self or industry group. How much higher can their rumor push this stock?
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Yesterday, CVO stated they had received "expression of interest" from anonymous suitor at $9.00 / share. Price soars to $9.50 today. Is there some speculation in the price about the reputed "interest"? Below is summary of how CVO stacks up in the industry. Not much to write home about. IMO: lock in any gains with very tight trail stop, or hard stop at $9.00 "interest" price. Jumped on the "rumor". Sell on the "news"?
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CVO VS. INDUSTRY LEADERS
Statistic Industry Leader CVO CVO Rank
Market Capitalization KMB 29.53B 481.98M 24 / 36
P/E Ratio (ttm) CSAR 197.50 N/A N/A
PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected) GLT 149.50 N/A N/A
Revenue Growth (Qtrly YoY) MERCS 1.58% 0.03% 25 / 36
EPS Growth (Qtrly YoY) BKI 5.11% 4.02% 2 / 36
Long-Term Growth Rate (5 yr) SEO 42.9% N/A N/A
Return on Equity (ttm) BNL 26.97% -94.28% 33 / 36
Long-Term Debt/Equity (mrq) CVO 27.904 - 1 / 36
Dividend Yield (annual) UPM 5.02% N/A N/A
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As mentioned earlier, GW was losing support. So, a decline might have been expected. Today's plunge might be a "Cramer Crash" since he slammed GW on his show yesterday. He said it was time to take profits and run. 32 of 42 of the O&G drillers/explorers were down today. With GW posting the 7th largest % drop, and with volume today up 50% over previous week's trading. Yes, ouch (for today).
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You must decide why you want to short a stock. What makes you think that a stock's price is going to fall? The Wordens and many others provide many examples and many times explain their reasoning. If you accept their arguments, then you may want to include them in your decision making process. You want to pay particular attention to those characteristics that can be modeled (create PCFs) in TC2005 (i.e., they are captured in the volume, price, earnings, etc. data included in the package. Qualitative changes, while important, are outside the realm of this "rules based" software tool. A change in mgmt team is a qualitative change that will be/was already reflected in the chart. However, you can't plug it directly. Some of the classic patterns that have been mentioned in this and other excellent forums are: prices rising on shrinking volume, price x volume diminishing at established tops (1,2,3), TC2005 indicators (TSV, BOP, MS, etc.) failing to confirm price rise, price remaining below a particular moving average (10DMA, 20DMA, 50DMA, 200DMA, or EMA's) for a certain duration (3 weeks ?), number of up vs. down days in past X days, number of large volume down days vs. number of large volume up days within a certain period, negative OBV, RS declining against major indices or sub-industry group, ad infinitum. You can include as many or as few measures as you think you need to make a decision. Many fine tomes on the subject of short selling are available. Many on line resources, as well. Again, pay particular attention to those ideas that can translate to the TC2005 canvas. Don't forget the money management side of this activity. Shorts consume more of your available capital per invested amount because of margin requirements. Effectively, and generally, you should consider that you're tying up twice the investment dollars when you short. Is another long position a better use of the deployable capital? Unless you're playing the entire market movements through ETFs and the like, you're picking individual stocks. Because of the capital margin restrictions, short rules, etc., you need to be especially good at selecting your short candidates. Do some quick calculations on ROI% before you enter a short position. And, remember your ROI% should be calculated using the direct investment plus the margin requirement. This is much longer than I intended. Good luck.
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Such info already digested by analysts (ie, already in the price). I agree w/ markacz on indicators. In addition, today was a bearish engulfing one day pattern. IMO: wait and see, or set buy/sell stops to reduce risk (and reward).
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IMO: GW is seeking 50DMA support. I see a negative TSV18 divergence from Jun17, RSI also showing negative, RS to SUB-IND declining since end of Jul. I'd buy only on confirmed break out (however YOU define them) using a buy stop with a tight trailing stop ($0.25). What will you do if GW opens down big?
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