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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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plz go @ look @ stoc weekly on dow30 /es $SPX $SPY all of them near crossing and o-bought! = longs MUST go 100% cash, buy back fall '11 $SPX
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2010
Posts: 11
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T2123 (cumulative 4-week new highs/new lows) went negative 11/10. I find this one to be hugely helpful, especially in tagging a bottom. If we don't get a net plus Friday/Monday - two Bernanke helicopter days - then may watch for more short. Several telecom suppliers look promising (to short), but been waiting for the charts to signal a low-risk entry.
I look at the charts, but haven't acquired the skill to explain exactly what I'm looking for. Broke down my last 9,000 trades today (the breakdown - the trades occurred from 1977 forward), so I know exactly where my ugly (expensive) mistakes have happened. Catching knives and failure to exit losing positions, along with poor cash management. Now have the numbers to know that anything over volatility 14% in one position is excessive.
Explanation: take the volatility from owning 100% in SPY. Any single position should not have a size so big it would exceed 14% of that. Is tighter than beta. Of course, right now the market is overbought. Plus, the dollar appears to have found a floor - this could just be Eurozone worries, but it tends to cause the dollar value of SPY to drop.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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QUOTE (cpsi)
Broke down my last 9,000 trades today (the breakdown - the trades occurred from 1977 forward), so I know exactly where my ugly (expensive) mistakes have happened.
You waited until today, to look at trades from 1977?
Thanks
diceman
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