| cpsi |
|
Gold User, Member, TeleChart
|
| Registered User |
|
|
|
|
| Unsure |
|
| Wednesday, September 22, 2010 |
| Friday, December 30, 2011 3:58:40 AM |
11
[0.00% of all post / 0.00 posts per day] |
|
|
Rode AGQ down, again not in real money - I find that the longer I follow a symbol, the more in tune I get with it. Whole market flagged a top last week. Support at 120 looks weak. But tomorrow always brings surprises.
|
Why does Worden say it has sales of $0? \
Researched, found it has burned 65% of its cash since Dec. 2009, that it plans to sell a big chunk of new shares to a Chinese entity (but hasn't yet sold/received $40 million that hangs a price of $280 million on the rest of the company), that it is a Development Stage company (which explains sales of $0). Primary assets are land/mineral rights in central Nevada. Not for the faint. Worden helps again!
Working from the numbers, Chinese paying just under $4 per share for 10+ million shares. And the Chinese have good mining experts. The operators hope to have the biggest moly mine in the world, and can sell all the moly they mine - usage contrained by supply.
|
T2123 (cumulative 4-week new highs/new lows) went negative 11/10. I find this one to be hugely helpful, especially in tagging a bottom. If we don't get a net plus Friday/Monday - two Bernanke helicopter days - then may watch for more short. Several telecom suppliers look promising (to short), but been waiting for the charts to signal a low-risk entry.
I look at the charts, but haven't acquired the skill to explain exactly what I'm looking for. Broke down my last 9,000 trades today (the breakdown - the trades occurred from 1977 forward), so I know exactly where my ugly (expensive) mistakes have happened. Catching knives and failure to exit losing positions, along with poor cash management. Now have the numbers to know that anything over volatility 14% in one position is excessive.
Explanation: take the volatility from owning 100% in SPY. Any single position should not have a size so big it would exceed 14% of that. Is tighter than beta. Of course, right now the market is overbought. Plus, the dollar appears to have found a floor - this could just be Eurozone worries, but it tends to cause the dollar value of SPY to drop.
|
On RDWR - fundamental overpriced. Technicals: survived a test of the 50 day ma.
Net- upside unclear (to me) - downside to 20.
I tend to buy support rather than buy breakout, so maybe my opinion is irrelevant. It is over $30, which is a plus.
|
Traded that in the vse (virtual stock exchange). I think I bought at the high tick. I do these things so as to not do them in real money.
Gold looks solid over $1400 again. And AGQ held 120 nicely.The volatility gave me nosebleed, though.
|
|
D*mn, I sold CREE too early. My partner objected to my thought to re-enter. Yeah, I don't run money as a cowboy - this is good, as we avoid our worst horrors. I get CREE up to the high 50s.Sort of filled in the gap today. In at 50 - out after 3% at 51.50.
|
F and GM lead me to think I may be too cautious. Obviously, somebody is out there buying new cars in volume. F is still holding too much debt for me to be totally happy. GM needs to get rid of its governmental overlords, or they'll be marketing Edsels for years. Honda makes cars in Ohio - yeah, I know the parts come from all over.
My best guess is that GM will outperform after the IPO, which means that the IPO will come in cheap.
|
Looks like a top to me. Of course, it could be that no helicopters with money until tomorrow, because of the holiday. Helicopters Monday, too.In the real money account, I'm net short, beta -0.12. I've been shorter.
It's the risk/reward on the 30-year bond that I find interesting. It seems to me that the Fed is fighting the interest rate trend. This cannot end well for the suckers taxpayers.
Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the interest rate trend. My money is on PIMCO over PimpCo.
|
|
Made money on COLM and out at 52.69 - still looks okay. I just swing trade.
|
Just signed up with Worden. I'm in. Do I win a lunch? Not that I need one.
Got UGL (ultragold), UCD (ultra commodities), YCL (ultrayen) and SKF (ultrashort financial).
|
|