PS:

Paul, I found that those formulas above were not as reliable as this one below. You can adjust the last number in the formula to fit your needs, for example you can change the "20" to a "2" or for over-bought conditions you can change the "20" to "90" or a "98"

100 * ((C > C1) * (C1 - C) + .5 * ((C1 > C2) * (C2 - C1) + .5 * ((C2 > C3) * (C3 - C2) + .5 * ((C3 > C4) * (C4 - C3) + .5 * ((C4 > C5) * (C5 - C4) + .5 * ((C5 > C6) * (C6 - C5) + .5 * ((C6 > C7) * (C7 - C6) + .5 * ((C7 > C8) * (C8 - C7) + .5 * ((C8 > C9) * (C9 - C8) + .5 * ((C9 > C10) * (C10 - C9) + .5 * ((C10 > C11) * (C11 - C10) + .5 * ((C11 > C12) * (C12 - C11) + .5 * ((C12 > C13) * (C13 - C12) + .5 * ((C13 > C14) * (C14 - C13))))))))))))))) / (ABS(C - C1) + .5 * (ABS(C1 - C2) + .5 * (ABS(C2 - C3) + .5 * (ABS(C3 - C4) + .5 * (ABS(C4 - C5) + .5 * (ABS(C5 - C6) + .5 * (ABS(C6 - C7) + .5 * (ABS(C7 - C8) + .5 * (ABS(C8 - C9) + .5 * (ABS(C9 - C10) + .5 * (ABS(C10 - C11) + .5 * (ABS(C11 - C12) + .5 * (ABS(C12 - C13) + .5 * (ABS(C13 - C14)))))))))))))))<20

I am still new to shorting the market so when I first started this thread the markets were already over-sold (not the best time to sell stocks short, unless we are dealing with the Bear ETF’s)...

I need to make sure that as many conditions as possible are moving in the direction that I want to trade. Right now the Markets are entering into over-bought territory. I sold my longs on Friday (selling into strength), and now I am looking for "Sell Short Set-Ups". 

Below is a list of stocks that I am watching very close and I will take positions when the time is ripe. I am still working on my entry strategy as my goal is to not let price drop to fast without me. They say that exit strategy is more difficult but I have that down already. My exit will be when price drops closes below the 7 sma.

Another condition for consideration is that price should be in an intermediate down trend and below the 200 sma. I some cases it is fine if price is wrestling with the 200 (just above or below).

Here is the new list.

Hi ApsII

Sorry about communicating via another members thread.  My wife would have know better, as she is a little more up to date on appropriate protocol.  Thanks for letting me know.

There are some good short opportunities today.   Real quick in and out, and back to cash at the end of day.  

For instance, HAL hit my initial short entry price (anywhere between 29.80 and 30.23) with a HOD so far of  30.33.   Unfortunately, I am unable to enter this, as I got all excited about HOG, and entered short position at 26.85 (38.2 fib line).  Am looking for pullback to at least 25.30, but will take 25.65-70 in order to enter HAL at its HOD, whatever that may end up being.

Also, you may want to look at GS.  It actually went positive a little while ago, with a HOD of 146.90.  I did a quiclk check and found unfilled gaps from Friday and Yesterday at 147.45 through 147.67; 147.97; 148.32; 149.29 and 149.91.   Now, it may not fill all of the above, but I think that it may at least fill the largest of the gaps at 147.45-147.67.  Even if it only gets back to today's HOD of 146.90, the upside risk from there is a tad over 2%.  Just a thought.  

Get back in the game Maverick!

Drj, Can you post a chart as to these gaps? I am not seeing them on the 1 minute charts and I would love to see what you are seeing. I found that I was not doing well with my scalping in these markets so I have not been doing so (for now). I have better luck scalping in more familiar markets, so that is why for now any way I am working with Larry Connors methods. I see that I have missed some good trades by not trusting his entries which in my opinion in some cases requires blind faith. Since that has never been my style then I am working on refining the entries to something more palatable but my profits are only meager at this time. At least that is better than the small loses that I was incurring trying to scalp on the intraday longs..... (And very few short scalps).

"Also, I have some information that I want to send to you, but it is not for posting.
If you were to read through and verify what I send to you, sometime tonight, you
will see that, instead of protecting assets and playing it safe while waiting for the
next market extreme, you can make as much as you want for the rest of this week,
as well as any other week."
=================================================

This doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

In the "Opinions" post you said to Apsll:

"Thanks for all your advice/suggestions, as it relates to various stocks.
Up until I had my you know what handed to me in early May, I only knew how to go long.
What do you think?  Could really use your input on this, just to confirm/refute."
==================================================

So if I have this right,

In May you didn't know how to short.

Now you have the "secret" of the markets, you don't have to play it safe,
you don't have to protect your assets, you can make money any week,
yet you still ask Apsll what he thinks, you seek confirmation from Apsll.
You ask for Apsll's input.

I would think if I had the "secret" of the markets I wouldn't have to ask anyone
anything.

Thanks
diceman

Hi Diceman

Thanks for pointing out the above discrepancy/contradiction, and believe me, I am not offended by it at all.  I deserved it.  Simply a matter of being new to a post and asking for advice/knowledge, in an albeit unorthodox and chicken crap way.    Sorry about that.  Please accept my apology, and the same for any other member who may have already read this.

With regard to any market "secret," I doubt that.   Like I said in the post, I am probably the 5,000,000th out of 5,000,001 that has figured it out.  

What have I figured out?  Nothing that the majority of you don't already know.  It's just that the majority refuse to believe that it actually exists, and has existed for longe than you and I have been around.

In a nutshell....how to determine when to go long or short, any stock, any sector, and limit upside/downside risk to less than 1%. Usually 0.5% or less.   Well, actually more times than not, within 0.3% or less. 

If you still feel like I am full of it, you can pick a stock , as long as the stock is currently in the S3 up through R3 channe (pivot point/S/R channel), and we will see who gets closer to the top price that that particular stock reaches, before it becomes a full on, back the vault up, short sell stock.  

Or, and I am sure that you and the fellow member's would appreciate this one better....you could give me 2 to 3 stocks that you are interested in (same thing, they must be in the S3 up through R3 channel), and I will tell you which stock to pick, as far as it relates to entry price and highest % gain over the next few days.  In addition, whichever stock that I pick, and you will be able to verify this, will have 0.5 to 1.0% downside risk max, while it makes its way to the target price.   And, if you are currently holding some stocks, you could let me know entry price and what you are hoping for target price.  I will then evaluate and let you know whether or not that is possible in a reasonable amount of time, and will let you know what your max downside risk is..  If you know max downside and/or upside risk, you never have to set a stop.  When you set a stop, those darn price spikes always seem to come and ruin your day at the most inopportune time.

Well?  Let me know what you decide.  I already have two current shorts (ESV and HOG), and will be getting a long position tomorrow.  This particular long will net me a minimum of $20,000 on my $500,000 initial entry based on 7/20 closing price.  That's just under 4% net guaranteed.   No stops or puts needed, as the very minimal downside risk won't call for it.

Let me know what you decide.  And don't worry, negative economic (be it global or otherwise) will not prevent your stock pick from reaching the target price that I pick (just like the market today).  Time frame?   By the time that the major indices (or sooner) fail to surpass the June 21 highs and head back down to break through the July 1 lows.  If you really like the long pick, you can rest assure that it will be ready to short (again, with very minimal upside risk) when everything heads back down.   That makes it real easy, doesn't it Iceman?  


Once again, sorry for the earlier blog and the obvious dick move.   Hopefully, we can start fresh and actually assist each other from now on.  And yes, even though I have it "figured out," doesn't mean that I will ever stop wanting to know anything and everything about the markets in general.  



Jim

Good day ApsII

Thanks for keeping an open mind at least.  And don't worry, everyone is a skeptic, including myself.  It's a protective mechanism and entirely appropriate.

I will get document to you sometime today.  Just look it over, research and verify for yourself.  Don't believe everything that you hear, including  what you hear from me.  Again, I am the same way.  If I hear about something, be it rumors or market information, it doesn't exist until I verify it.  That is just plain common sense.  If, after researching, backtesting and verifying for yourself, you want to call B.S., you've got to do it!  I would.  It's only fair.  But, before anyone can call B.S. on anything, you've got to put the effort in to try and refute.  Don't be like tomson10.  Just kidding...  If you like what you find out, and choose to apply it to your own trading technique, go for it.   And you can even pass it on to tomson10 if you want.  I believe in helping out our fellow traders, because we all know that it's a never-ending battle, as it relates to trying to beat the market.  Or should I say, Big Money and the Black Box.

I am currently busy keeping watch on price action for watchlist, as well as major indices.  Charts show evidence of another end of the day rally, so prepare accordingly. 

With regard to recent posts, go back and backtest some of the information that I provided, keeping in mind the day, as well as time of day, when figuring out total returns, as well as maximum risk, based on my calls.

For instance, I advised yesterday that GS (price at time was 148.60) was good long candidate up until 151.15 due to unfinished business at the 150.71 and 151.15 levels.  So far today, it took out the 150.71 hurdle, and HOD thus far is 150.97.  Chart shows that it will take out the last hurdle today, and will most likely give another 0.5% before petering out.  If you got in when I advised yesterday, and get out when it takes out 151.15 later today, that is not a bad ROI.  But don't hold it through tonight.  That's just playing it safe.

Advised on Sunday morning that CMS was not safe short until 16.00, at which time, the upside risk (remember, short term one to two trading session time frame when I am quoting safe entry price and max risk) was 2%.   Tuesday morning around 4:00 a.m EST, advised that, if still holding off on CMS, you could wait until 16.08.  So far today, it hit 16.06, and by end of day will take out 16.08 and should end aprox 16.12. Or if you want, you can play it from current price right now (15.83) as a long, and then exit when it gets to 16.12.  It will reach it, and will also reach the 16.50 level, with no more that 2.5% downside risk (and that's completely stretching it-----more like 1.0% to 1.5% downside risk max) in the not so distant future.  But once again, remember that we only want to operate in the 1 to 2 trading session time frame max!

Advised yesterday that JPM was safe long until at least the 40.59 level due to unfinished business, as well. At the time that I advised of such (when I was having difficulty getting chart sample to you) , JPM was trading less than $39.00......something like 38.90 or so. Today it has HOD at 40.25 (already more than 3% gain since advising you at the sub 39.00 level).  If you got in, get out when it challenges (may or may not surpass today, but it will) today's HOD.   If you are unable to get out today because it doesn't challenge HOD, don't worry, keep the long position and get out at 40.31, or 40.50 level during next market rally.  Again, chart says it will reach 40.50 level (at least), so that is what will happen.

Also go back and review ESV and HAL advice, once again, keeping in mind that the advice is valid for 1 to 2 trading sessions max.  But guess what?  So far, 2 to 3% minimum is not bad ROI, as it relates to recent posts.  Just extrapolate, as it relates to per week, per month and per year.

To all the skeptics and naysayer's, it is perfectly appropriate response.   Like I said before, I would do the same.    But give ApsII time to go over information, and let him be the bearer of the good and/or bad news.
 

Gotta go....

Happy Trading everyone!

Jim

Drj, 

the markets are telling me to sit on the sidelines for now any way. You appear to be a day trader and although this is a day traders market I am just not good enough doing so. I am a believer in protecting capital when the markets are not to my liking. 

When I do stick my toe in the waters it is always with small lots so as not to upset the integrity of my capital base.

In my real account I will not be investing just yet but since I have given up all hope of using the simulator that we are now stuck with then I will just buy PWER and ENTR and just hold them until the end of the contest. It is my plan to be holding both stocks soon if/when the Bulls take control of this choppy Market.

The current Bear channel that the SPX has followed is now broken by the Bulls and in my opinion the ball is in their court. This is not to say that the Bears will not steal it back though.

As to your analysis above I still do not see your point yet. Please get to it so that I can share with you my opinion...

Thanks 

Apsll.

Hello Drj:

Yes, just skype me as (contact info removed by moderator - as your followup comment notes, you know it is against the rules and did it anyway - continued deliberate violations could result in a permanent ban).

the forum moderators do not like folks sharing private information. The logic escapes me but I do not own the forum so it is not my call. Hopefully you can grab it before they do. As far as the local trolls like tompson10 and johnlc, just ignore them. None of them know how to actually trade and they spend most of their time telling others how crazy they are or lame or other such juvenile themes.

I actually wish that you would just share your strategy with the group here as I am sure that you have peaked their interest, otherwise the trolls would not be responding....

Talk to you soon and have a nice trading day today...

Drj, I can think of no way for us to deal with each other but only through this venue. I do not want to risk the privilege of posting here over this thing.

I think that you are either going to have to share with us all or just let it go....

My apologies to the forum for my lack of restraint in previous matters.

Apsll.