Good day ApsII

Thanks for keeping an open mind at least.  And don't worry, everyone is a skeptic, including myself.  It's a protective mechanism and entirely appropriate.

I will get document to you sometime today.  Just look it over, research and verify for yourself.  Don't believe everything that you hear, including  what you hear from me.  Again, I am the same way.  If I hear about something, be it rumors or market information, it doesn't exist until I verify it.  That is just plain common sense.  If, after researching, backtesting and verifying for yourself, you want to call B.S., you've got to do it!  I would.  It's only fair.  But, before anyone can call B.S. on anything, you've got to put the effort in to try and refute.  Don't be like tomson10.  Just kidding...  If you like what you find out, and choose to apply it to your own trading technique, go for it.   And you can even pass it on to tomson10 if you want.  I believe in helping out our fellow traders, because we all know that it's a never-ending battle, as it relates to trying to beat the market.  Or should I say, Big Money and the Black Box.

I am currently busy keeping watch on price action for watchlist, as well as major indices.  Charts show evidence of another end of the day rally, so prepare accordingly. 

With regard to recent posts, go back and backtest some of the information that I provided, keeping in mind the day, as well as time of day, when figuring out total returns, as well as maximum risk, based on my calls.

For instance, I advised yesterday that GS (price at time was 148.60) was good long candidate up until 151.15 due to unfinished business at the 150.71 and 151.15 levels.  So far today, it took out the 150.71 hurdle, and HOD thus far is 150.97.  Chart shows that it will take out the last hurdle today, and will most likely give another 0.5% before petering out.  If you got in when I advised yesterday, and get out when it takes out 151.15 later today, that is not a bad ROI.  But don't hold it through tonight.  That's just playing it safe.

Advised on Sunday morning that CMS was not safe short until 16.00, at which time, the upside risk (remember, short term one to two trading session time frame when I am quoting safe entry price and max risk) was 2%.   Tuesday morning around 4:00 a.m EST, advised that, if still holding off on CMS, you could wait until 16.08.  So far today, it hit 16.06, and by end of day will take out 16.08 and should end aprox 16.12. Or if you want, you can play it from current price right now (15.83) as a long, and then exit when it gets to 16.12.  It will reach it, and will also reach the 16.50 level, with no more that 2.5% downside risk (and that's completely stretching it-----more like 1.0% to 1.5% downside risk max) in the not so distant future.  But once again, remember that we only want to operate in the 1 to 2 trading session time frame max!

Advised yesterday that JPM was safe long until at least the 40.59 level due to unfinished business, as well. At the time that I advised of such (when I was having difficulty getting chart sample to you) , JPM was trading less than $39.00......something like 38.90 or so. Today it has HOD at 40.25 (already more than 3% gain since advising you at the sub 39.00 level).  If you got in, get out when it challenges (may or may not surpass today, but it will) today's HOD.   If you are unable to get out today because it doesn't challenge HOD, don't worry, keep the long position and get out at 40.31, or 40.50 level during next market rally.  Again, chart says it will reach 40.50 level (at least), so that is what will happen.

Also go back and review ESV and HAL advice, once again, keeping in mind that the advice is valid for 1 to 2 trading sessions max.  But guess what?  So far, 2 to 3% minimum is not bad ROI, as it relates to recent posts.  Just extrapolate, as it relates to per week, per month and per year.

To all the skeptics and naysayer's, it is perfectly appropriate response.   Like I said before, I would do the same.    But give ApsII time to go over information, and let him be the bearer of the good and/or bad news.
 

Gotta go....

Happy Trading everyone!

Jim

Hi Diceman

Thanks for pointing out the above discrepancy/contradiction, and believe me, I am not offended by it at all.  I deserved it.  Simply a matter of being new to a post and asking for advice/knowledge, in an albeit unorthodox and chicken crap way.    Sorry about that.  Please accept my apology, and the same for any other member who may have already read this.

With regard to any market "secret," I doubt that.   Like I said in the post, I am probably the 5,000,000th out of 5,000,001 that has figured it out.  

What have I figured out?  Nothing that the majority of you don't already know.  It's just that the majority refuse to believe that it actually exists, and has existed for longe than you and I have been around.

In a nutshell....how to determine when to go long or short, any stock, any sector, and limit upside/downside risk to less than 1%. Usually 0.5% or less.   Well, actually more times than not, within 0.3% or less. 

If you still feel like I am full of it, you can pick a stock , as long as the stock is currently in the S3 up through R3 channe (pivot point/S/R channel), and we will see who gets closer to the top price that that particular stock reaches, before it becomes a full on, back the vault up, short sell stock.  

Or, and I am sure that you and the fellow member's would appreciate this one better....you could give me 2 to 3 stocks that you are interested in (same thing, they must be in the S3 up through R3 channel), and I will tell you which stock to pick, as far as it relates to entry price and highest % gain over the next few days.  In addition, whichever stock that I pick, and you will be able to verify this, will have 0.5 to 1.0% downside risk max, while it makes its way to the target price.   And, if you are currently holding some stocks, you could let me know entry price and what you are hoping for target price.  I will then evaluate and let you know whether or not that is possible in a reasonable amount of time, and will let you know what your max downside risk is..  If you know max downside and/or upside risk, you never have to set a stop.  When you set a stop, those darn price spikes always seem to come and ruin your day at the most inopportune time.

Well?  Let me know what you decide.  I already have two current shorts (ESV and HOG), and will be getting a long position tomorrow.  This particular long will net me a minimum of $20,000 on my $500,000 initial entry based on 7/20 closing price.  That's just under 4% net guaranteed.   No stops or puts needed, as the very minimal downside risk won't call for it.

Let me know what you decide.  And don't worry, negative economic (be it global or otherwise) will not prevent your stock pick from reaching the target price that I pick (just like the market today).  Time frame?   By the time that the major indices (or sooner) fail to surpass the June 21 highs and head back down to break through the July 1 lows.  If you really like the long pick, you can rest assure that it will be ready to short (again, with very minimal upside risk) when everything heads back down.   That makes it real easy, doesn't it Iceman?  


Once again, sorry for the earlier blog and the obvious dick move.   Hopefully, we can start fresh and actually assist each other from now on.  And yes, even though I have it "figured out," doesn't mean that I will ever stop wanting to know anything and everything about the markets in general.  



Jim