 Gold Customer
Joined: 1/18/2008
Posts: 209
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Hi All.
Looks like DUG is going to blast off!! Hi volume breakout on a day where oil set a new record?? No more money to go into the oil service stocks?? Note the breakthrough on the 3 day indicator (middle window).
I bought 200 shares wednesday, i am going 200 more today!
Good Hunting
Sharp.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/13/2008
Posts: 10
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Could be, I may grab some this am. On Fast Money they talked about the Rotation into bearish territory for Coal and how the tradiing in the Oil area is getting sparse as people are mostly afraid of getting in at this high level after the fast run up and the "demand destruction" stories that people are starting to talk about happening. For example if gas hits $5 a gallon, you'll see more people changing their habits as is already happening. Imagine if the rate of usage goes down so much that the refiners get backed up and don't have room to store their excess capacity. Yes I know this is the scenario that all those protest "don't buy gas on July xx and the price of gas will drop overnight" alude to but don't have a chance of working.
BUT if day after day after day there is a reduced consumption of gas then somethings got to give. The first time some news comes out about refineries slowing down production, it could be the catalyst for the DUG taking off big time. Now that I think about it I think I'll "google" around to see if anything like that may already be talked about!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/13/2008
Posts: 10
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Well I dug around and found that refineries have slowed production since April and that during their "maintenance" cycle they have taken more production offline then at any time post Katrina.
So I guess they won't run into any storage issues. We'll just have to look for the thin action on the buy side at these prices for the clue which may be what the chart is telling us here anyway.
I'll look at DUG some but watch the weather for possible hurricanes also to see if I need to get out! Thanks for trade idea!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I've post consistantly on my dug speculation except one.... frustrating.
I was looking at it last night. I keep getting dazzled by the volume and it keeps getting better and better.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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xle, one to watch today.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (scottnlena) I've post consistantly on my dug speculation except one.... frustrating.
I was looking at it last night. I keep getting dazzled by the volume and it keeps getting better and better.
should read LOST
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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need oil to break down first.
xle hanging by a thread. old bulls die hard.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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got filled again.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott, price broke free from its triangle pattern. you might get a nice ride out of this.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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looks like you got in at a good price here scott. but, good chance you'll see a throwback. so examine your stop.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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see... the MINL10 reversal has it's upsides.. no pun intended. Bought the break above 7/2 and trailing my stops. Volume is a beauty.... which is scary. If I hadbn't gotten clobbered so many times I say it was too easy. !st clobbering was my fault ...didn't trail my stops in the intention of letting it have some room.
Next three times got faked out, no twice once was a proffit.
ZEUS and JRCC are interesting .. I was thinking they were way verticle in their trend .... wonder if this is the beginning of the end for them? I was waiting for a pullback. Careful what you wish for right? Now i'm wondering if we'll see a kiss goodbye on the chanel or if in 4 months this little correction will be normal in overall scale.
One draw back to the MINL10 (aside from false hits, which can be produced by anything, but you get allot in down trends) is that when the power trend gets underway if you miss the MINL10 before the start....there often isn't another one.. so you'll be looking for another entry methodology if you want to participate.
You know also I take a few losses and I start getting negative and down on my self. However not really getting any where for all my efforts is pretty deflating. Spent allot of time looking into buying strategies when I needed to be studying the short side. But each month I kept thinking it can't last much longer, by the time I get my shorting aproach ironed out it'll be time to shelf it.
I was shorting the TSV BB aproach. which works .... but it's way early and the formulas are visibly slowing TC down so I deleted it and discovered the inverse of the MINL10 and just visuslay check the TSV BB relationship.
David John Hall brings up a good point and something that I've been thinking about allot lately. Getting the pick and direction right is more important than your entry. I tend to have a hard time putting togeather the bigger picture in real time.. it's alwayse clear in retrospect. It's like working on one of those huge paintings you see inthe Met or Tretikov Galleries of a land scape or an epic battle scene. the trees and figures are beautifuly painted each in their own right but stepping back and there is a story going on there and that is more important than the 3" dude in the horizon with an arrow in his ass on a 5' by 15' sceene.
How to get better at that?
I guess at this point some things are a given and just need to be watched. Airlines for instance won't stay down here. When they turn is anyone guess, why they'll turn is probably to do with oil prices but maybee not. So I need to keep an eye on them.... but what tends to happen to me is I get dazzled by something else and look back six months later and they are well into their recovery.. then I want a pullback and either don't get it.. or I deem it as too steep and suspicious. With all this you'd think I had a fear of pulling the trigger...but actually quite the opposite. I have a fear of good picks showing strength.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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interesting thing about energy stocks , is they are both connected to oil, and the stock market performance in general. finally, both oil and stocks are dropping at the same time.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (scottnlena) David John Hall brings up a good point and something that I've been thinking about allot lately. Getting the pick and direction right is more important than your entry. I tend to have a hard time putting togeather the bigger picture in real time.. it's alwayse clear in retrospect. It's like working on one of those huge paintings you see inthe Met or Tretikov Galleries of a land scape or an epic battle scene. the trees and figures are beautifuly painted each in their own right but stepping back and there is a story going on there and that is more important than the 3" dude in the horizon with an arrow in his ass on a 5' by 15' sceene.
I think that you may be onto something there Scott ...
You may have heard me say before that it is "enough" for me to decide which markets to be in ... and when to be in them ...
If you can get that part right ... you can generally tape a newspaper to the wall and give a monkey a dart and do just fine ...
There were times in my life when I was consumed by the market ... but as Booker alluded to in another thread ... I've just got other things that I'd rather do now rather than spending every waking moment chasing the holy grail ...
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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yea...I'm trying to get twards a "trade what I see" aproach verses a trade what I think will happen. but I tend to like reversal plays and im' havnig trouble reconsiling the two philosophies.
SEEMS to me trading what I see is short term continuation trading what I think will happen is reversal plays. But since i'm so mostly short term logicaly a reversal tot he main trend direction SHOULD be a continuation play in the grand scheeme of things.
Ahh oh well.. right now it's all mute till we get a bit of a bottom in . Give me a new uptrend and in a week or two of good gains I'll be a genious again. i'd be happy to get a steady burn going at fairly smart rather than constantly running the relay race between genious and villiage idiot.
having periods for a few months on end where I was appraoching a 70% (67%) good trade rate, then gonig to the opposite extreem it does get to ones sense of self. that is bad. I realize now it was less me and any "skill" than it was a decent entry criteria and catching a good timeing in general. At this leads me to think that I'd be ok if I never got back to the high pick rate before .. I'd be tickled pink If I could hit 55% and keep it there provided my losses were more eaven dispersed.
I've got to change my thinking and my fear of an established up trend. Well gotta go .. day with the baby begins.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (scottnlena)
Well gotta go .. day with the baby begins.
Speaking of other (more important) things to do ... the market will always be there ... children ONLY stay children for an "instant" ....
I suspect that we're getting close to "a" bottom ...
Technical indicators are nearing historically low levels ...
Many indexes are showing us "downward sloping consolidations in a downtrend" in the daily charts ... generally a sign of an impending bottom ... although it may be of limited term ...
I'm not worried about you being a genius again ... as nothing will humble you faster than the markets ...
Crude is nearing the trendline that has acted as support nearly all of this year ...
Be careful with your DUG trade in here ....
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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took it intra day. unless price sky rockets from here I have a nice complete picture perfect swing trade. not breaking the banke but took home $210.0 for a 100 share position. I'll look for another entry soon.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 1/18/2008
Posts: 209
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Hi Guys,
WhooHooo!!!!!!!! I wish i would have put more into it. 400 shares in the 27.xx's. I didnt get any DDM .....yet.
Sharp
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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nice trade.. good on you mate!
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