| bchildress |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Sunday, January 13, 2008 |
| Friday, February 6, 2009 4:20:14 PM |
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well out of SSO now with S&P hitting 1244. I'll sit it out for rest of day I think
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Well we dropped enough that I'm out of SMN and into SSO - see if I guessed right!
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With hedge fund commodity plays unwinding for the near future. SMN seems like a good ETF to have. It's working for me today big time!
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Well I dug around and found that refineries have slowed production since April and that during their "maintenance" cycle they have taken more production offline then at any time post Katrina.
So I guess they won't run into any storage issues. We'll just have to look for the thin action on the buy side at these prices for the clue which may be what the chart is telling us here anyway.
I'll look at DUG some but watch the weather for possible hurricanes also to see if I need to get out! Thanks for trade idea!
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Could be, I may grab some this am. On Fast Money they talked about the Rotation into bearish territory for Coal and how the tradiing in the Oil area is getting sparse as people are mostly afraid of getting in at this high level after the fast run up and the "demand destruction" stories that people are starting to talk about happening. For example if gas hits $5 a gallon, you'll see more people changing their habits as is already happening. Imagine if the rate of usage goes down so much that the refiners get backed up and don't have room to store their excess capacity. Yes I know this is the scenario that all those protest "don't buy gas on July xx and the price of gas will drop overnight" alude to but don't have a chance of working.
BUT if day after day after day there is a reduced consumption of gas then somethings got to give. The first time some news comes out about refineries slowing down production, it could be the catalyst for the DUG taking off big time. Now that I think about it I think I'll "google" around to see if anything like that may already be talked about!
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All the talk on CNBC was that this was just the Bears rotating to another sector and bringing it down. I actually was lucky today. I'm betting on financials going down more this year so on the rally on financials I bought Jan 09 ultrashort on financials (SKF) and rode that to the end of the day, I then caught ACI and MEE (coal plays also for Jan 09) and they were working till end of day but the afterhours action suggests they'll recover. Made one error on trying the XLV healthcare sector because I saw some turning in a couple of that's sector's stocks but it didn't work out and I cut it loose. A very small up day but beats the heck out of the way I used to just ride things down. Ultrashorts I've wanted to try before but never did, now I will be back with them again on any financial rally till I see the VIX hit 30 something.
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Everytime I select "Update" it tells me it needs to reorganize my data before running the update and I have no option except to say OK.
1. Is there something I can do so it doesn't have to do this everytime?
2. Can you just remove the prompt or allow me a setting so it goes ahead and does whatever it needs to do. I don't like hitting the "Update" button and then coming back to see the prompt ask for permission to reorganize my data.
Thanks,
Bob
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And now here at the end of the day, we're almost back where we started this morning - Amazing!
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I have a gut feeling the Fed will announce a rate cut today. It's not based on any inside information but I wanted to post it somewhere in case I'm right to document it.
We're at support levels (a little below) of 12,500 for Dow and 2400 for NASDAQ and if it closes below these levels it could keep going down and be harder for Fed to have a good effect on the market. I think they'll have to do a lot more to dig out the further it drops and someone is going to wake up and realize that. When that happens, an announcement will come and based on the fact my stomach is not in knots, I think what is happening right now (stocks dropping severly for second day in row) is exactly what will wake someone up.
Bob Childress
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