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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 13
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Can you point me to PCFs that would help me find stocks in strong 40 - 60 day uptrends? I'm interested in your approach; mine's not very good.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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How do you want to define the uptrend as "strong"?
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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Craig,
As I recall, you have recommended the use of Price Growth Rate in somewhat similar situations. I would recommend that here since pmckeon is asking for your approach.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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We cannot give our approach, bustermu. I may have used price growth rate in the past but not with the opinion it was the best way to measure a "strong" trend.
I don't even know what the poster means by a "strong" trend.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 13
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I agree that my first post was't very specific. It seems to be a problem with me.
What I'm looking for is a way to scan for stocks whose AVGC20 has been rising for 40 - 60 days, with price above the SMA for almost all of the time. I want to watch for price violations of the rising moving average.
I've tried several approaches, but I believe it can be done better.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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Here is one idea based on your specifics. Let me know what you think. It spot checks different time periods for the sake of keeping the PCF short... it is not perfect as a result but should give you some stocks you like.
AVGC20>AVGC20.10 AND AVGC20.10>AVGC20.20 AND
AVGC20.20>AVGC20.30 AND AVGC20.30>AVGC20.40 AND
C>AVGC20 AND
C10>AVGC20.10 AND
C20>AVGC20.20 AND
C30>AVGC20.30 AND
C40>AVGC20.40
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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pmckeon,
There appears to be some problems with the definition you supplied for "strong uptrend".
As an example, please bring up the symbol ACTG. Make the chart Daily with Zoom = 7 and 03/18/05 at the Right-Edge. Place a Linear Regression of Period 41 and a Simple Moving Average of Period 20, both on Closing Prices. The Linear Regression marks the 41 days of interest.
Please observe that:
1) Craig's PCF returns "TRUE" at the Right-Edge.
2) AVGC20 increases for 75% of the last 40 days with only minimal decreases. It is maximum over the 40 days at the Right-Edge.
3) C is above AVGC20 for 65% of the last 40 days, but C < C40.
4) The Linear Regression Slope is negative.
I doubt many would consider what is observed a strong uptrend.
This suggests that you should probably consider changing the definition.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 13
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Craig - Thank you! This is just what I was looking for. With youe PCF as an example, I'll be able to write PCFs for two different moving averages and watch the stocks I find for price breakdowns through the SMAs.
Jim - Thanks to you too. How on earth did you zone in on an example that ilustrated so well the error of my assumptions? I'll use two SMAs & I believe I'll get the result I'd been hoping for.
Thanks again, pmckeon
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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pmckeon,
If you wish to measure the strength of an uptrend, I suggest you do not use do not use data prior to the interval of interest. Moving averages do just that.
AVGC50 is a popular moving average. It contains no information whatever about an uptrend of the last 40 values of C.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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