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Just got to thinking maybee i'm over complilcating all this stuff. So after reviewing the TSV video and moneystream video the basics are this, divergences aside. TSV above zero is asociated with rising prices. Moneystream above it's moving averge is asociated with rising prices. I like or prefer to see the two in agreement.
So I made this scan.
TSV 24 crossing up through zero
XAVG(TSV,24) > 0 AND XAVG(TSV1.1,24) <= 0
Change the 24's to your favorite period. I also use 18 and 36 on daily. I chose 24 becaseu if 24 is true then 18 will be and 36 will be soon.
Moneystream crossing up through its own ma.. I use 25 day.
MS > XAVG(MS,25) AND MS1.1 <= XAVG(MS1.1,25)
Change the 25's to your favorite average period.
I then tried to add a trend check of a shor ma above a longer ma... but that eliminated allot. but that could be the timing now. For arguments sake I left it out and it didn't seem to matter. Mostly up trends anyway. And several macdH divergences.
I then aded the HNC/Diceman indicator or actually my 3 moving average version .. trying to catch more significant swings. Still playing with that setting.
But that cuts things down to 30 charts today.
you could sort by a volume requirement to look at good volume charts first. I use Vol > it's 15 bar Ma.
V > XAVGV15 Today that is only 1 chart where that is true for my settings.. so possibly something else.
Some of the ones I came up with were this.
CRM DRY XEL DCP NSHA MCI KOSN HMA
what do you guys think?
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THanks to Bruce for the help with the PCF's by the way. sorry.
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Joined: 12/2/2004
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I've been a big fan of the KISS principle for a good while now. Welcome aboard:) Seriously, I used to have so many indicators on my charts that I was mesmerized by the beauty of it all. Less is more in my case anyway.
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I've been struggling with the idea of finding healthy stocks...but not to healthy. So what is healthy... where do good trends come from etc etc. etc. I also am playing with and trading a rule that stocks must be above their 100 ma coming out of a bottom.. or above it in an intermediate bottom then I'll switch to a 50 ma criteria. But a trend that is healthy was once unhealthy and came from somewhere. picking the tip of the bottom is tough. But beyond that I think finding new trends or probable trends is possible. So as stocks show signs of health the TSV and MS requirements are soem of the earliest solid signals, I think. The HNC help identify buy points.
I may start a bank of candidates that look every night comign from this list.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Scott, I like CRM and XEL alot. TSV crossing zero and Money stream crossing its moving average are two good choices for filter criteria.
Let me know how your results turn out..
Apsll..
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QUOTE (scottnlena) I've been struggling with the idea of finding healthy stocks...but not to healthy. So what is healthy... where do good trends come from etc etc. etc.
Scott, I rarely look at a stock unless price is above both the 50 and 200-day. This just about guarantees that the stock will be in a nice relatively long uptrend. The key is to find these healthy stocks when they are not extended. So I look for stocks that have been basing for a minimum of about 6 weeks and up to several months after having experienced a nice uptrend. I want the price range in this congestion phase to be relatively tight, about 5 to 15% in a flat base, and no more than about 35% in a cup/handle or double bottom/W-formation. Then place on active watchlist and wait/hope for a breakout and catch it early.
A recent example is TSRA. I had been watching it for weeks after I discovered it a couple months ago and had bought a small piece but got stopped out for a loss. I stepped in again recently as I bought a piece right at early breakout on 5/4 as price broke out of about a 4 mo. flat top or resistance, and then added another 1/3 piece on pullback last week to near lows of recent range. I hope to add a final piece if price ever moves above about 46.50.
Sorry to ramble like I always do, but I wanted to give an example indepth that hopefully addresses part the question you raise and maybe even provide you with a small nugget that you may find useful.
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QUOTE (scottnlena) TSV 24 crossing up through zero
XAVG(TSV,24) > 0 AND XAVG(TSV1.1,24) <= 0
I also use 18 and 36 on daily. I chose 24 because if 24 is true then 18 will be and 36 will be soon.
Scott,
I am curious as to what caused you to make the statement:
"... if 24 is true then 18 will be and 36 will be soon."
Since the statement is not in general true, could you elaborate a little?
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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I think the important thing is to be consistent so that you get a sensitivity over time of what kind of stocks your system is picking up which will alert you to changes in market conditions.
TC2007 and it's type software are wonderful toys to play with and it's easy to spend an entire evening just tooling around and trying new things and playing with ideas. But the downside of this is that its easy then to lose focus and not exercise the discipline necessary to run our current systems properly - and then everything falls apart.
Settle in on something - some people NEED things to be kept simple (and for some reason, Scott - I just don't think that you're one of them) and others have the focus and discipline to make complexity work for them. So that is all part of the "know yourself" thing. But the important thing after that, I think, is focus and discipline. Find the one thing that works and is in your comfort zone and stick with it. It's fine to play and innovate and go with ideas - but try and exercise the discipline to do what you have to do with your current system first - work before play. (its funny how something was "play" before, when tooling around and trying things out, suddenly becomes "work" when it becomes the daily system and has to be done each day LOL)
I enjoy just about everybody on this board - everybody has different styles and expertise and points of view - and I've learned an awful lot. But I also am chagrined by the number of times I've read about people changing systems and approaches just in the short time that I've been around - and when I read that it makes me wonder if someone who feels the need to change their system often just isn't putting the time in their current one. I'm not trying to be critical here of anybody - just I know myself how much fun it is to explore and play and then how hard it is to stay focused on the regular maintenance stuff that you need for your current system.
RIght now I don't mind doing the drill and finding the MACD100s to add to that watchlist because I'm eager to see if the theory works. But say that becomes my system - will there come a time when I am excited about something else and that MACD100 watchlist will become drudgery that I end up "forgetting" to do?
So in that sense, making keeping it simple IS important in that if you do like to "play" and get easily distracted, the less you have to do to maintain your current system the more successful it will be.
I think of people who did this 40 years ago - by hand, with only a few tools and indicators available to them. I'm sure they kept it simple, and kept their focus and discipline LOL - they don't have the embarassment of riches that we are fortunate to have - but we must remember that there IS a downside to that.
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Excellent commentary hohandy, enjoyable read, thanks.
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FPTRY, enjoyed it, I tend to ramble also. thanks. I'm doing something similar. Stocks must be above their 100 ma with an identifiable bottom of some time frame beneath them, Or Based on their catigorization with Dicemans phases of stock cycle. Generally I want it to be over the 50 for entry.
Bustermu: generally speaking. Signals will show up on a faster TSV before on a longer one. though on a daily chart of XLP, on or about 3/20 all my daily tsv settings crossed up. switching to 2-3 day charts slows them down more considerably. Currently TSV 24 and TSV 18 are crossing up (exponential) while TSV 36 never got below zero. NEarly all the stocks at the top of the scan show this to be the case. TSV 24 is crossing zero, 18 is also if not already has and 36 usually has if not it is real close.
Hohandy: I hear ya... I haven't had anythign thing to maintain. In most of 06 it was enough for me to have a suspicion of trend and a good candle pattern. Sounds crazy...unless I am deevolving. This market is challenging me. The last sidewayse market I experienced wasn't fun but I was at least more proffitable. I am now trying to put togeather a cohesive system that fits my plan. All this work and thinking has helped me come to a better understanding of all the indicators I use the time when I want to enter a stock, and reading it's history. I am a more knowledgeable trader... I am not a better trader (yet I hope). BUT something changed and my system before that was nebulous and freespirited isn't working any more. INfact it is the reverse of working. The goal has been to find way of improving ALL my odds. From better money management to better understanding of indicators, better watchlists, better entry points All in an attempt to turn my trading around. If I stick to what I was doing... I'll be broke in a year and a halve. Which is incredibly frustrating when in the past as a general rule I could match or exceed my average weekly salary from my day job. I was unhappy with my performance when I dropped to a 50% hit rate... and usually my problem was gettign out to soon. And allot of those trades were Chart only trades. Lately the only trades I can seem to put on are those where I'm the highest order of the day and then price makes a run for my stop. so I am not goofing here. My wife is suggesting that I just quit all togeather. And it is starting to make sense.
My dire hope is that the indexes will be supported here or below here... and give a nice platform for a leg up to continue with the trend started in 06.
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All of the comments to date are on target, enjoyable, and of great interest and helpful for a relstive novice.
The theme to date has been "Get a system and stick with it as long as it works for you".
The question arises "When it looks like my system isn't working, how long do I wait to abandon it and what criteria do I use to decide?"
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Several months of consistant losses clued me in. In trueth the markets are alwayse changing... part of me wonders if I'll suddenly become proffitable at a new system and it will change... possibly back to a market more friendly to my previous system.
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Actually tonight this scan found some neat stuff!
IAAC XRTX AVGN WAG FLO
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so far I've gone through 102 signals. I'll continue foreward to 500 I think in the course of the next week.
Now I tried to be judicious with them. I only looked at what was on screen at zoom 3. this covers roughly December 06 fwd. I did count multimple signals per ticker but the emphasis was on multimple tickers. Charts were taked at random from one of my scans. chart patterns that I would have skipped I assumed I did, low liquidity lots of gaps ETC. Also those false signal instances where the order would not have filled. were omitted. This is not based exclusively on buying this signal but in some cases yes, but mostly as a "radar signal" so the actual purchase may come a few days later.
I broke it up into good signals and false signals which were further broke donw into up trend, down trend and sidewayse trends. Generally the trend is the most imediate.. short term.. this became difficult because some were sidewyse in and intermediate up trend... this is the foggiest part of these numbers. So for consistancy take I went with the short term trends. the signals were also broken down into significance of move tht followed: False move, minor move (about a point up to 2 points) moderate moves (2-6 points) significant moves (6+). False moves were whipsaws and less than one opint moves. Sidewayse included several breakouts on the day the signal was given.
Again this is for TSV 24 crossing up through zero and MS crossing up through 25 Ma AT THE SAME TIME.
Total GOOD SIGNALS 75%
Total Bad signals 25%
Occouring in:
up trend 79% good 21% bad
Down trend 68% good 32% bad
sidewayse 40% good 60% bad
*This was the most interesting group becasue althrough it had the highest number of false signals.. it has the highest number of significant moves after the signal.
out of 102 (only becasue I lost track and kept going... will continue to 1000 later this week
)SIGNIFICANT moves :
12 were in up trends 12 were in sidewayse and six were in down trends.
Moderate moves: 13 were in up trends 12 in down trends and 3 in sidewayse trends.
Minor moves: 9 were in up trends, 4 were in down trends 5 in sidewasye trends.
False signals 7 were in up trends, 7 were in down trends and 12 were in sidewayse trends.
this was not with backscanner. this was one at a time looking at the % true condition. I would have loved to have used backscanner for this BUT I had difficulty filtering out trades that I would and would not have taken when I ran backscan reports so those numbers were rough as well becasue they generally included all instances where the conditions were true... and there is no system that allows you to switch off your brain. All set ups still require evaluation and entries still require skill in execution. This was more a study of these conditions as a "HOT ALERT" signal.
Input is apreciated.
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OH hey I can copy and paste it here.
TSV/MS joint crossups
UP trnd DN TRND Sidewayse TOTAL Win Loss % good % BAD
significant move 12 6 12 30 76 26 75% 25%
moderate move 13 12 3 28
minor move (1pt) 9 4 5 18
false move 7 7 12 26
Total signals 102
Good move total 34 22 20
False moves 7 7 12
bad signals 21% 32% 60%
good signals 79% 68% 40%
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or not... It got distorted.
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I couldn't sleep last night so I carried the test foreward to 200 stocks... and the changes became less and less prominent. I think at this point 500 would be a waste of time.. unless I got a HUGE spurt of good signals and all the bad ones are waiting for me somewhere else.... which I doubt. Also I had to start alover becasue I accidentally deleted the study while playing with charting opptions.
To the results were similar to the above but actually a bit better.
the most significant moves were found in uptrends (after a pullback or brief consolidation)which also had the most good signals at 86%.
Followed by down trends with the 2nd highest amount of moderate moves and some considerable moves.. the later generaly were trend reversals. Others were counter trend bounces. 78% good signals
Sidewasye was the most dicy with the highest number of false moves and the 2nd highest number of significant moves, which wound up being breakouts. 66% good signals. The most minor moves (1-2 pts) came in uptrends... and if not exited could have been whipsaws.. or required a longer hold to capitalize greater gains... often price went sidewasye from there and a "fresh" signal was given before the continued move. So depending on a perosons trading style some of the minor moves could have been small losses, OR some of the moderate and signifficant moves mightn ot have been caught due to premature exit.
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This scan is really producing for me. For Now I'm still having an embarrasment of riches.. but I have a clearer idea of which ways I should trim my selections.
three days in a ros I've gotten some really nice selections out of it. Also three days in a row i'm holding 100% proffitable positions across the board. Some are not much yet but others are decent. It's early to tell but I think this model will plug into my main strategy as my main buy signal.. radar alert.
again I had more good options than I could afford to buy, or felt comfortable in current market conditions.
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Scott, I just wanted to touch base with you on this study. So the test results are in? You have numbers.
Uptrending stocks (after pullback) - 86%
Down Trending 78%
Sideways Trending 66%
With these numbers Scott all you have to do is apply good common sense money managment and risk/reward skills, and you are on your way to becoming a millionair. (no sarcasm intended here).
I like to keep the formulas for TSV and MS sepperate because you will be missing some good stocks that moved very well based on the TSV signal alone.
Now you have inspired me to conduct two seperate studies on just the TSV indicator. one to finish what I already started (the back testing of the percent true TSV indicator) Remember I tested 40 or so stocks and the raw numbers were about a 60% success rate. And two to paper trade live the hits I get nightly from this indicator sorting an easy scan that I run nightly also (based on volume and price range)
I will share my results in about a month or so...
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Stocks that I like right now for the TSV & MS indicator are -
CMOS
MED
NTO
DVSA
NGAS
RTC
PMCS
Lets see what kind of week they have..
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looking foreward to it.. I"m just pleased to see that my picks are moving well now. I started using this aproach and so far my hit rate has inverted it's self. It's probably to soon to tell. ANd there is a huge psychological factor that I think became my biggest obstical.
Example TCC. bought on the low of the previous consolidation.. got to the top of the consolidation and sold off the low of the 1st down day...While that is fine for a rolling strategy It didn't occour to me to put a breakout order over the whole consolidation becasue I was still so gun shy. I figured it was headed for the retest of the consolidation ... where i'd try to get back in.
" like to keep the formulas for TSV and MS sepperate because you will be missing some good stocks that moved very well based on the TSV signal alone."
This is true and in cases of additions to positions or continuing to work a good trend you will have to do that. My main focus is trying to trade less and capitalize more on slightly larger swings. Hopefully soon i'll be able to truely invest. I don't now becasue I get a good proffit take it and dance around while it moves up another 10 pts while i'm not watching. But I am more short term oriented.
but in terms of a scan that will put quality new oportunities in front of me every day and allow me to create a watchlist of stocks that have high probabilities for later entries it is great. AND I consider that not every day is great to enter orders. so between 20 -88 charts a night in addition to my nightly watchlist that is compiled of some of these picks as well as sector based and other strategy based searches ... I still can almost fill a page in a scrap book with potential picks. Any way it's more than enough options and perhaps there is added strength in MS and TSV working in concert.
Cant find RTC but all other look great! I want to trade this strategy a few months and if it does well increase my share size back to where it was a few months ago. I cut it back while in my major loosing streak.
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Scott, Now you have found a strategy that shows a high rate of success. So you need to focus on this trading style only. Master this style only and watch your portfolio grow.
There will be no more blood transfusions needed due to being bludgeoned. No more headaches from the frying pan.
Your success now will be guaged on your ability to enter and exit properly. Use the candlesticks. Exit on a dark cloud without hesitation. If one stock fails then onto the next one.
Here are some stocks that TSV just crossed zero.
EPL
NAK
WPL
HITK
CALM
The ticker symbol that I goofed on from my above post is RTK not RTC.
Good luck future Millionair..
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One more thing, stop reading about other trading stratgies. Put down those books. You have designed the only tading strategy that you will ever need, along with a couple of awsome indicators.
Now after diner you will be doing this  
Instead of this  
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According to my stats... which are only run through 200 charts... BUT after 150 there were fewer and fewer changes. I havent played with any of the Avergaging capacities of excel but it has been a fun learning experience and forced me to get back in touch with some basic math skills that i hadn't used in a long time.
EPL: downtrend = 78.72% of being a good signal. A 73% chance of being a worth while move and 30% chance of it being a significant move. Provided I enter right and am not shaken out with to tight a stop.
NAK: up trend = 86% chance of the signal being good. 83% odds of the move being "worth while" and 40% chance of a significant move.
WPL: is a great example of "where to stick it?" intermediate trend down short term trend sidewasye. Though my 3 mas say down trend. so shortest trend is sidewayse since there are multipld positive divergences. 66% chance it is a good signal, 80% chance the signal is worth while and 54% chance that the move will be significant or a trend reversal.
HITK: short term trend is up .. a positive divergence resolved in april.. From a down trend. possibly reversal. 86% chance the signal is good (though MS was already above its ma.. it think it generally holds true) 83% chance of a worth while move and a 40% chance of a significant move.. However having come from a intermediate down trend that might be higher.
CALM: sidewayse .. same as WPL but coming from an up trend could perform better in terms of probabilities.
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ONE thing occoured to me in testing only what was "on screen" I have tested it in this market... but perhaps I should check it out in a clear historicsl down trend and a clear up trend.
But then up trends would fall under the "working the trend" philosophy and down trends I think this will expose you to the early recoveries. Possibly more whipsaws on the near side of a topping market generally speaking.
I wonder how it would perfom inverted for a down trending market?
Thanks for the encouragement and the congrats..but lets wait a bit on that. Dont want to count your chickens before they hatch.
Speaking of hatching.. there is a way to make allot of money with ot being subject to market volitility and economic panicks. I wife wont allow it now but I used to breed exotic snakes. some of them are thousands of dollars each or even several hundreds of dollars, can have their biological clocked tricked into givving double and tripple clutches a year. Green tree pythons for example average $750.00 lay on average 14 eggs perclutch and often breeders have waiting lists. they write names and contract numbers on the eggs before they hatch in black grease pen.
I know a guy in Oklahoma city that makes between 250 K and 500 K breeding exotics. All non venomous (except ghila monsters). Maintains a seperate residence packed with thousands of snakes.
Galopogose tortises can be as much as 10K each. Again with waiting lists... but it takes for ever to get young ones up to breeding size.
Sorry for the ramble, and space cadet topic. Remenants of my unfinished zoology degree.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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Scott: Am following your efforts with interest. You have done an impressive job of verifying your theory. If my thnking is not altogather too muddled, this seems to bear a marked resemblince to the Apsll Trifecta he posted some time ago. Price crossing 50EMA, MS crossing 22period EMA and TSV 26 crossing "O" as buy signals. Although the numbers differ, it seems close.
The above settings may be a bit slow, but looking at JNY, your system just may be refined to pick good bottoms. Although you would need to ignore the lack of uptrend signals.
Consider summarizing your system. Make a separte post. Title it "Another Simple And Profitable System for the Newby and Not So Newby". ala HNC.
Keep on keeping on!
Mammon
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I must have missed the "Trifecta".. But actually I have anot about it in my desk top notebook. "Apsll good bottom conditions" it is titled. And yest I can see that logic. it will help find intermediate and short term bottoms. Youcan also use the 100 wich is a precedent to this idea for me.
JNY I see as a rolling strategy bouncing between $27.00 and $34.00. The steep decline recently is cause for pause. Short term trend is down. Of course one would want to try to filter out bad trades etc etc. For example in a short term down trend from a previous up trend (intermediate) or short term sidewasye trend ther is alwasye the chance that the signal would be bad and a product of the last hurrahs on the way down. I'd say check the indicators history and if they are trenidng down now and the move didn't look significant or there werent signifficant divergences leading up to it then it has higher chances of falling in the overall 22% bd signal catagory.
and there is alwayse news that can cause suprise counter trend gaps. MGM for instance was a marked sell or at least avoide by Peter Worden at the Las Vegas show... he couldn't have know what was coming out there was no way to see that gap coming. My gut says to shave some of these numbers down if for no other reason to stay humble.
Yes different settings will give earlier signals.. perhaps I should play with that.. but I used the setting i already use and am comfortable with. I don't think settings will create a night and day difference. Dont forget that with faster signals you pay for your earlier entries with more false starts.
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Mammon, my original intentions at the time I posted the Trifecta (as you named it) was to demonstrate that long running momentum stocks when traced back to their bottom formations seem to have (TSV 26 crossing zero and Money Stream crossing its 22 day moving average and Price crossing up over the 50 day ema) all around the same time. Not necissarily on the same day.
I made a percent true indicator to see how often these three things occur on the same day and I did not get many hits at all...
I would just like to see Scott focus on one trading plan and become a Jedi Master at it. It is my belief that if he will stick with one game-plan then he will be able to stay in the game. (I would hate to see him drop out)
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This is the (Trifecta) thread:
Diceman (Nostalgia time)
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APSLL
I'm building my light saber now. There have been alot fo Jedi and starwars coments lately. As I recal you know allot of the lines and things also. how big a fan are you? Personally i love it. I've read allot of the novels as well. they'll never win an award but they are fun and stimulating. I also like to play the games, and get excited when there is a new starwars product coming out.. mostly games. I don't buy any of the toys... I do look at them. There is a TV series being shot now in singapore as I understand based on the clone wars. It will be animated with the lates ILM technologies. This is not to be confused with the Cartoon Network animated series. Aparently this will be totally different. there are issues with which network will get it.... seems like at first Sci Fi chanel.. but FOX may be puttin in a bid. I don't get TV so I wouldn't know if it is already playing or not or being advertised.
There are allot of novels based on the period after the fal of the empire that would be cool for a series, but of course the clonewars has't been squeezed for all it's worth yet aparently.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
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Apsll: We are in complete accord on this one. It was not my intention to convince Scott to change anything that works for him. But perhaps his ( and yours ) system is flexibled enough that others could tinker with it. Sticking with one system and mastering it has many merits. All successfull people have some things in common. The ability to concentrate, and having a "cutting edge". Being well rounded is good in social circles, but you need to have a niche you excell in. Being the best.
I do not like to see anyone fall from a game that they so obviously enjoy.
I did not get many hits on all three of your standards either. However, two of the three within a day or so with the other already there is probably within the logic of the system.
Good work on both your parts.
Please forgive me the liberty of naming your offspring. But it seemed so....fitting.
Mammon
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I was of the generation that was spell-bound by the movies from the 70's. I am not a memorabilia fan, nor did I sport their posters or scare old ladies with a light saber. But I love to read science fiction. (Peirs Anthony,,BIO of a Space Tyrant 7 book series is good reading. The Thomas Covanent Cronicals, 10 book series by Steven R Donaldson is my fav... As far as Star wars books, I have read a 3 book series by Timothy Zhan that was good.
I read a while back that it is his plan (George Lucas) to sell the rights to Star wars so that others will be able to make movies based on his work. I have no interest in an animation version based on the clone wars.
If they were going to make another movie then I have a few ideas.
A. Go back to when Yoda was an apprentice
B. The whole story of Darth Plegas the wise (as eluded to by chancelor Palpatein)
So yes I am a fan, but you will never catch me at the conventions trying to tell Luke that I am his Father...
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Correction, I think that the Thomas Covenant Cronicals was a 6 book series. And Mammon I took no offense at your naming of my offspring. And I concur with the idea of mastering one sytem at a time. the stock market was here long befor we were born and it will remain long after we are gone, so there is no hurry to learn everything in one day.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Mamon..
the thing to do would be to create seperate custom indicators for all three and and look through lots of charts and make notes of relationships and frequencies. I HATE math but I recently took a statistics class in my attempt to chip away at finishing my biology degree (which may switch to finance or economics)and loved it! ther ewere cool case studies we did where we used raw data tom come up with waranties for things like nintendo controllers and the proper waranty length for minimum impact to the companies bottom line. A few insurance probablities etc etc. the great thin was that so long as ou understood the logic and process the calculators would do the rest for you.
Perhaps there would merit in creating the three seperate indicators, looking through 1000 charts and recording the the relationships between them and the following market activity. Honestly I believe that numbers you get from Backscanner type softwares are only goign to be rough anyway becasue you still need s specific entry and exit point or strategy .... which I found very difficult to program in terms that were clear to backscanner but they are simple for me but as a rough glance it's probably good.
keeping track of the details will help you formulate an aproach even if it is a systematic sort by the custom indicators in order of importance or whatever.
I was amazed that the riskiest time to take this signal, a sidewayse market, coincided with the 2nds larges potential for proffit. so one aproach to try to grab those gains while lowering the risk is to aproach a consolidationo with the signal as a breakout entry.. only enter then with an order above the consolidation... yea the proffit is a bit lower... but in general I think the risk goes down..... which is a trade off i'll take anyday.
I tried the two seperately and it's true that allot of great signals are given by TSV by it's self... but by adding a few more requirements I was able to slim down my selections for a logical reason ... which is generaly a problem for me. I know what health looks like individually in the indicators and so for various reasons I can find my self liking a page of entries on any given day ... despite market direction or trend quality. Not the greatest scenario for long term success IMO.
I do keep other criteria in mind as I do the analysis. But I think only a few can be hard and fast rules... other wise you'll never enter anything.. so I picked my favorite indicators and made requirements there.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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Scott: most of my investing life, I would routinely scan 800 charts a day. I one limits those with growth, minimum volume requirements and price and get a considerably smaller number. By screening one criteria at a time, flagging the chosen few, then screening those flagged for another indicator one can get a quite manageable group. Using IBD and Barcharts plus my own PFC, I start with about 300 charts of stocks in good standing,good volume, right price range and currently enjoying some strength. Reducing this somewhat with screens for indicators, one can get a group that can be viewed manually without much trouble. I enjoy looking at charts. Tough to screen for many chart patterns whose breakout may coincide with a system trigger.
Mammon
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Mammon:
I keep a couple of watchlists... some are bottoms or consolidations that seem to be forming now.
This seems to be working for me.. All I care about is making the money. If buying stocks begining with a "B" on the third friday of the months has high probablities so be it.
ther are extenuating conditions to these indicators. This is not a mechanical system. reading a chart ctarts at the left side and flows to the right side. see above where I said that you cant turn your brain off.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I did some mechanical testing on these indicators.
(since I have never generated data on TSV,MS)
The indicators are in the form described by Scott above.
I used the DOW 30 over the past year.
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The TSV system goes long when above zero. The MS system
Goes long when above its MAV. (the conditions above)
They go to cash when conditions are not true.
(no shorts)
Signals are based on TSV and MS and its MAV only.
(no volume or trend filters)
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Average Return equal weight Dow 30 Buy and Hold:
23.95%
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Average Return TSV above 0 : 12.19%
Average Return MS above mav: 11.64%
(exposure)
TSV on buy signal : 65.52% of time.
MS on buy signal: 60.13% of time.
TSV buy signals: 450 : or average of 15 per stock.
MS buy signals: 306 : or average of 10.2 per stock.
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TSV returned 77.68% of its return adjusted for exposure.
MS returned 80.83% of its return adjusted for exposure.
So even though MS had a lower return. (11.64) It performed
slightly better when adjusted for its time in the market.
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It is typical for most indicators to under perform buy/hold
In strong bull markets
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Realize that this is looking at the indicators above in a
mechanical fashion to gauge their similarities/differences.
This only relates to Scott’s system by the indicators.
(since exact buy/sell conditions have not been defined)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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that is neat diceman.
What I need to do now is make a complete list of tickers and signals, outcomes with more specific details reguarding my orderentry and moneymanagement system.
BUt I can say that last week was not only failry proffitable (just got into some things) but my hit rate is completely inverted. For the last few months i'd have one minor winner out of 7-8 positions... It was the opposite this week.
Now it is one week so it's to soon to say.
I'm thinknig of creating the inverse of this condition to see how it dows in a falling market.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Today only 15 signals... which is what I would have expected. Not allot of interesting stuff in there either today... again. Again makes sense if you think about it.
that which might be is
SHRP ANN wni ands eee nasb gain. none exciting to me so i'm not planing on entering any orders unless they come frmo my nightly watchlist.
Shame about ANN though.. I kept coming across that chart ofr a few months thinking there was an oportunity there.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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FEAR!
That is the issue here. Tonight I again have several attractive candidates. However the general market timing is suspect. Most of the indexes are starting to track a macD negative divergence. But those can last for months.
allot of people say that the markets have gone to far to fast afer the Feb shock. I've also read that shock moves tend to recover quickly.... which this one did.
Last May prepresented about a 6.50% drop in the SP-500. Feb was about 4.75. So the question is is that enough to recharge us going into summer? Can the current trend continue another three months. I read allot about average seasonal cycles.... but most of what i've read says that they are out of whack right now.
I look at the charts and aside from the above mentioned negative divergences the pattern looks the same as it has. A choppy creep upwards. Or not so creeping....
I gonna enter some orders tomorrow. Besides If Warren Buffet is buying now then thinkgs cant be that bad.
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