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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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Continues in downtrend. If riding Qs on a short, place stops above the gap down on Jan 20 for short term trades. A close above 39 may indicate a halt to the correction for the intermediate term.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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Solid up day, price closed in upper half of range, however volume was not overly impressive. My bet is that downtrend will resume, however let the market tell you what to do. No one knows where it is actually going. Use stops (mental or actual) if playing short side. Short term traders keep stops above gap down on 20 Jan. Intermediate term traders, keep on watch for a close above 39 to indicate reversal of downtrend.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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QQQQs closed in upper half of daily range, but below yesterdays close. Volume slightly increased today. I would watch the QQQQs as they approach the downtrend line defined by the daily highs on 1/3/05 and 1/19/05. My guess is that Qs will bounce off this downtrend line and continue lower, but let the market show you where it's going. A breach of the downtrend may indicate new strength.
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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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Price closed in lower half of daily range on increasing volume. Price is approaching the downtrend line discussed in earlier posting. Positive results in Iraq may buoy the market tomorrow, but we need a close above the downtrend line on increasing volume, and in upper half of daily range, to prove this correction is over. If stock closes below current lows (around 36.50), next support is at 35.50.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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QQQQs closed up towards the downtrend line defined by the 1/3 highs and 1/19 highs. Closed in the upper half of daily range, however volume was a little anemic for such a strong day in the markets. Still not convinced we are out of the correction, until we get a closing price above the downtrend line accompanied by substantial volume.
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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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Closed above previously defined downtrend line. However, volume was a little light and price retraced most of days gains by close. Traditionally, a close above the downtrend line, indicates a reversal in trend, however this could be a head fake. My guess is the correction is nearly over for the QQQQs, but let the market confirm the trend change.
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Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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At or nearing end of second leg in rally, which had retrace to new low. Now I see market backing off or doing so  after tomarrow, then in a few days trying once more to rally...finding new high...and failing! Third time shall be an omen, not a charm, but likely more convincing.
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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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QQQQs closed up for the day, barely. Once again volume was up, but not convincingly. Although price remained above downtrend line, I wouldn't get too bullish on the QQQQs yet. The NASDAQ 100 were relatively weak compared to other markets. We need a strong up day in price and volume before declaring the correction in the QQQQs dead. Let's see what we get at the close of the week. I'm in cash and waiting for the market to show me the trend clearly.
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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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That's what I was looking for. TSV and MS are both up, price closed near top of the daily range and on increasing volume. Long the QQQQs now, I think the correction has ended and QQQQs are in a good risk-reward area. Place your stops at the 1/24/05 low, and let's see if we can get a decent rally here. I think the NASDAQ is lagging the other markets, but may make some ground up in a hurry in the coming weeks.
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Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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Resumption of rally earlier than I expected and that's normally bullish...but breadth of buying is still terrible. See ETF indicators on the SPY.
Upside not closed but candlestic Harami today stochastic peak suggests difficulty here. Other indicators caution and suggest downside is wide open for first time in weeks.
I've noticed buyers eager but sellers hesitant in recent days. Suggests if retraces here it continues until day of rushing the door occurs.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 47
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QQQQ appears to be hammering out a bottom. Price had two good emotional sell-offs yesterday, but patient buyers came in and retraced the selloffs both times. Yesterday resulted in down overlapping value on increasing volume. This is moderately weak in the long term. Day traders might try to enter long above 37.23-37.25 resistance. Swing taders might try to enter long above 37.40-37.48 resistance. Last night trading was down. If open is below 37.05-37.25 support, then day traders might try to buy above 37.05-36.99 support turned to resistance. QQQQ is the weakest major ETF so be careful.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/15/2005
Posts: 6
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A nice bounce off the bottom today. Will they rally and close above 38.00 on Monday (Feb 14, 2005)?
If they do it would seem that they are starting a new leg up to test the December highs.
JD
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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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QQQQs made a strong move on Friday. I suspect we are out of the woods on the correction now. Can be confirmed if we get TSV above the zero line, and increased strength in MS. I have my stops set below the 1/24 lows and look forward to attacking the 04 highs.
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Joined: 1/15/2005
Posts: 6
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MS and TSV are both above their moving averages and it appears that we are getting ready to try to push through resistance.
Will be interesting to see what effect that Greenspan and Oil inventories have on this in the next few days.
Jim
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Registered User
Joined: 1/15/2005
Posts: 6
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Well, I just looked at the Trend Quality indicators and it appears that we are preparing for a rally. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 47
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Day traders dominated yesterday. They supported the Q's at 37.82 low with heavy buying yesterday. Other timeframe traders were absent yesterday. There is still selling excess from other timeframe sellers above yesterday high of 38.16. This was created by violent selling down from the 50 day moving average. A move above yesterday's high may indicate other timeframe traders are buying. A move below yesterday's low indicates a downswing is beginning. Look for confirmation with a break below yesterday's low in the major averages. If the lows are broken with no follow-thru selling, then selling excess will be creatd, and new highs would seem to be in the near future. Comparing advances to declines indicates market is overbought.
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Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
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If Qs break last weeks lows, look out, we could be testing the late-January lows in the Qs.
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Joined: 1/15/2005
Posts: 6
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Wondering if it will touch 36.49 ... and if it does how much of a bounce we will see before it comes back to that point again. There seems to be a lot of unwarranted optimism for the markets considering where the dollar is going and that interest rates will rise for the rest of the year.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 47
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Now in the fifth leg of a broading pattern. This is normally a topping pattern, but is occurring in odd location. A rally half the last downswing would keep the pattern. Watch out for pattern traders to get trapped, maybe on a rally that just keeps going. Yesterday daytraders were able to stop decline three times at 30.72. The fourth time price pentrated down to 30.70. There were no sellers there. Seems to have run out of sellers. Swing traders may enter on break above yesterday's high. If market breaks below yesterday's low the sellers have returned.
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