| rwstic |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Saturday, December 25, 2004 |
| Saturday, January 31, 2009 10:15:57 PM |
51
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Is true foolishness wanting to be the next President?
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I've found divergences useful for endorsing or warning midst a trend, but not as a trade trigger. In other words like overbought or oversold, a divergence may persist a very long time and become greater and greater without a reversal. In contrast a security with divergences warns face of the move may be unreliable and masking greater risk.
I say divergences clue to risk...but trading on divergences is so ever risky as to perhaps not be better than random walk. That's due to undependable timing of any reversal based on divergence! It's my experience and what I find if I walk a historical chart forward from past attempting to paper trade a security without first seeing how the divergence plays out. They don't look as "good" that way as trading trigger as they do analysed by a larger chart view seen in retrospect. Try it!
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If you're saying the top isn't in, but close..I agree! It's still an upward unstable market too quiet in sense flowing essentially (still) range bound within an incline and absent at extremes up or down true change in participant's passion. Portends I believe a bigger shake and more tradable market just ahead.
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I agree it's more practical to use market orders for exit, and especially when change to negative direction appears emminent and one for instance wishes not allowing a profit to turn to loss. On thinking about my using market orders for exit or entry however I conclude what I do is not trade anything does not tend to have nearby bids/asks and I watch that behavior while holding. I continually assess availability of fast escape and will get out "too early" using limit order if market becomes noticibly thinner.
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Identifying trend or lack thereof is always virtuous, but to find a flat market for trading is perhaps not. Best perhaps to identify a flat market for selling time premium? Best to predict perhaps is end the malaise? A suggestion as to the way to profit in flat markets and what to look for in studies.
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What do you regard as more significant indicators in comparison to CCI, RSI, and Stochastics?
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One might believe every way to gain an advantage is already tried and well known, but in age of derivitives and easy access to markets is not so. Thus no matter what the written work, it lags.
Believe instead in human nature to find opportunity. Every opportunity is being taken by others against any trader, and that trader is also seeking opportunity. Competition is fierce and forever shall get more fierce. Narrow range marching market we now have is probably evidence of that, just as aggressive competitors narrow the price range and render less profitable a business line like televisions.
Yes read the known schemes of market competitors, but to find your opportunity and learn which for reasons of legality to avoid. Think of trading as a business, opportunity and by being good businessman the hoped for rewards likely follow.
Most businessmen fail; they successful businessmen from failure and most importantly look again for opportunity and try again instead of dwelling on the the badness of the situation or the competition. Second time and later they appreciate and take for granted it's a big bad world full of at least as hungry wolves want yours.
When your perceived opportunity goes bad know someone else's succeded. In case of market trade today several may have as participants in the security and its derivitives "unwind". As US Attorneys are learning, finding out which one or ones in any case is extremely complex and usually not worth speculating about except to be aware certain essential phenomena commonly affect data a trader evaluates(such as high put buying generating hedging short sales). In other words unless suspicion rests on a party with a fiduciary responsibility to the trader, forget abouth the other side of any trade.
Just my thoughts from 40 yrs experience with markets and looking into life's various situations.
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The good news: Direction isn't clear. Instead no bids, it could be next major leg up just ahead. The bust of 2001 may not have been top the two decades run! Definitely a more pleasant thought and more consistent with the fundamentals except for personnal debt and international stability mostly affecting financially less important areas except petroleum sourcing.
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In recent few weeks my "snail" mail is bringing several times increase in offers for investing guidance news letters and seminars. Again, is this bullish climax or a market breaking out. Those pointing to the trend are correct it isn't broken, and NASDAQ pushing ahead the others would seem more like breakout than failure.
With a press gone in past two weeks from disparaging bears to near conclusive thoughts of market decline, and mail suggesting increasing public interest, it's a problem I feel more than see. Succinctly, despite that talk and the uptick in postage, it's too quiet! Makes me feel like prey...as if stepping in a still forest.
Anyone else especially uncomfortable and noticing unusually little but loose talk is EFFECTIVELY pointing anywhere?
Anyone else suspect when direction comes to the market it will be a "Katie bar the door!" for mostly emotional reason, and the current quiet is all the warning coming?
With so many of us looking at the trees (aka individual securities), have we nonetheless inadequate view the all but still forest just about to bite, or must it the tree filled market get more participatory yet continue quieting internally?
It's the forest as big picture bothers me right now, as I believe it could soon be fully set to overwhelm the individual trees. Think no bids. No bids means no effective exit strategy, which hasn't been seen in about 20 years...and that's bad too!
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