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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 73
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COVER LONGS...
THIS IS GOING TO BE REALLY UGLY.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
<:o)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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truemaster,
If you're right, you'll be rich. Good luck. :)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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Hey Truemaster - you may be right. It's probably not wise to be heavily invested in the market right now, whether you are long or short. Next week's Fed meeting is looming closer...and who knows what those guys will do. Past history suggests 1st term Fed chairs mess things up pretty good.
Also, Aug-Oct are usually bleak months for the markets.
Best advise I have for anyone is to keep your stop-loss orders tight and watch the stock indice charts closely.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I agree wave 2 is over but I also agree with rwpod. Nothing significant will happen until that meeting is over.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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You guys spend all your time trying to predict the next bear markert, problem with this is there's always a bull market but if you're not looking for it then you won't ever see it to make money.
There's always a bull market / stock somewhere. ALWAYS
Sorry don't want to rain on your parade but I don't own the DOW so who gives a &$#(&# which way its going? I care about the industry group that belongs to the same stock I own but the market in general taking a dump...you can have that prediction and I hope you get it right but who cares. If I listened to someone telling me the markets going to crash and I better be in cash I wouldn't be doing so well.
Just my thoughts.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I agree Rlcowan. I guess it's just fun to predict where the market is heading.
No matter what, every trader must have a method for a bear market, bull market, and a non-trending market unless of course you are a day trader and then all that matters is volatility and average true range of the stock you are trading.
A small comment to truemaster. The one thing I learned about elliott waves since I started studying them is you can only trade based on them when you are absolutely sure what you see is really happening. You cannot anticpate anything until there is some confirmation.
Is the dow in an upward corrective trend wave 2, and we are headed for an enormous wave 3 and 5 down? I'm not so sure anymore. If you look at the end of wave 5 you could make a case that we had an ABC correction after wave 5, and a wave 1 up, then a wave 2 down that was completed on 7/14/06. We actually could be in a wave 3 uptrend which would be the exact opposite of what you are thinking right now.
We could also look at this whole sequence since the wave 5 end and call it a 3-3-3, or it can be a 3-3-5 correction. In either of these cases, yes the market is going down. Until some support or resistance is broken I am not sure where we are headed.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I used to drive myself crazy trying to predict the market years past. I guess it is human nature to try to predict, but years of experience told me it is a waste of time (I still do to some degree so - can't change human nature). It is much more sensible to just see where the market is at the present time and act accordingly.
It really doesn't matter what the trend is, you can short a bear market and do as well or better than going long in a bull market. It is true that as a general rule, in any given market there is about 1/3 of the stocks going in the opposite direction. So there is always a bull and a bear, just so the stronger take the attention of most folks.
As for Elliot I do not care much. The wave will follow the markets, and not the other way around. I believe you would do better by simply studing the support and resistant levels of the short term, intermediate, and long term for any markets.
By the way trumaster - can you tell me what "cover longs" means. As far as I know you only cover shorts, and sell the longs. Confusing ???
Good luck fellows.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/27/2005
Posts: 8
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I make money if the market goes up.
I make more money when the market goes down, 5/1.
Even make money in a sideways move.
The stock market is in the middle of a 16/17 year wave.
The last wave in a cycle of 5 up.
The next cycle is 3 down.
No prob; I make money what ever dirrection it goes.
Now here is the prob.
Real estate moves in 5 yr cycles.
When two wave cycles come together at the same time.
It is called a tidal wave.
This may be coming.
This has been proven through back testing, time and time again, for many many hundreds of yrs.
In all markets, EXCEPT the U.S. stock market.
Just has not happened here, Yet.
Many believe it is our time.
Eliott waves are great theory, but must add Low theory too.
Which gives us a very good chance of missing another crash, like in the twenty's.
I believe you may be right again truemaster.
But lets not panic the novice investors.
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