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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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Early May momentum breakdown. Anomalous negative divergence with market and group starting on 07July gap down. BOP remaining decisively negative during recent rally to resistance (old support) near 35.
Additional strength from here and i'll abandon the idea, otherwise it looks ripe to me.
JG
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Registered User
Joined: 11/1/2005
Posts: 240
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thats my best post, the most informed info I posted to date. the dog ate it?
SBUX looks like a short, watch it close the next few days. good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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If SBUX can rally to between 36-37 without closing the gap it made on 7/7 this would be the area that I would short SBUX with a tight stop at $37.45. Downside target would be around $28-30.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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Sir Gapscan,
I'm betting that the high of 25July was as close to the gap as SBUX will get. My reasoning is mainly based on the price/volume action of 12July and then the 21-25July low volume reaction into the range of that bar - which is in the lower range of previous price congestion aroung 34.85. If you're disposed to seeing constellations in the sky  , this area could also be construed as the neckline of a H&S top.
I'm thinking that the first support it will encounter is around 31.15. On a 2-day chart, that's approximately the base of the big volume momentum surge of 1-2Feb. But you may be better qualified to comment on how that gap might affect the price action here.
JG
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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One additional comment - which i should add as a disclaimer to all my prognostications - is that all of this reasoning can be completely nullified (if it ever made sense in the first place  ) by an upside surge in the market. Nothing would surprise me these days.
JG
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Registered User
Joined: 12/10/2004
Posts: 95
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That could be; but, if the July 25th is just wave A in a ABC counter rally before any new low in this stock are seen. The July 27th low could be the B wave & then wave C could rally to between $36-37 before this stock turns down again. As long as moneystream stays below its 22 day MovAvg any further rally in this SBUX should turn down & hit a new low.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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I planned to add to my short on a close below 32.93. Ended up closing just north of there. Earnings announcement is tomorrow. Interesting that it stopped right at support before the announcement. I am terrible at predicting what will transpire after earnings announcements (i'll take any pointers) and will often sell just before if i don't have much of a profit cushion and/or if the technicals are getting foggy. I decided to hang on, but didn't add today.
I expect SBUX to pop tomorrow morning, but unless i get a technical signal to cover, i would only be guessing as to whether the pop is a fake-out to get shorts to cover or a head start on the new rally after the announcement. But then again, a shallow, low volume dive in the morning, closing nearly unchanged might accomplish the same thing for da boyz in reverse. I won't try to second guess 'em. Trying to follow 'em is hard enough.
JG
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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JohnGault,
ER will throw a monkey into all of this. I had a PUT option when it was 38 and rode a nice ride to 34 where I closed out. I just did another PUT a couple of days ago. Today's drop was nice timing.
But tomorrow is another day. ER is so unpredictable. I'm undecided, but I'm thinking about taking profit before ER. Well, maybe I'll buy a couple of calls to hedge it.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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JohnGault,
We won. Tomorrow morning will be a great day. I think I'll close out if it hits support at 30. Let it bounce back to around 32.25, and then short it again.
This has the potential to go down to 24 where the long term up trend line will force it back up. Look at the long term chart since '93 and you'll see what I mean.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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jryanweb
It's good when you're on the right side of these things. Wish it was always like that. I'd love to find an academic study of technical conditions before and after earnings announcements to see if there are any patterns that might help detect how the market will react.
I covered a little over half just after the open. Will let the remainder ride for at least a few more hours or days. Will be looking at your support levels. Thanks.
Congradulations!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2006
Posts: 72
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Well done -- I'm impressed with your spot-on predictions.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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enkidu,
I'm not in the prediction business. Just trying to react quickly and consistently to the probabilities identified by my trading plan. In markets like this i will, very often, be wrong more often than right. The key is to manage risk and position size so that you make more on your winners than you lose on your losers. It only takes a couple of these "extra base hits" to make up for multiple small losers. You can't go to the plate swinging for extra bases, but they will come if you stick to a good plan. The most difficult part is maintaining your confidence and discipline during "the grind". Living with this (you never really get comfortable with it) is one of the key aspects of trading that only comes with experience.
Thanks for the kudos all the same.
JG
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 67
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Decided that there is now resistance @ 31.18. Looking at first real support in the 27.50 area.
JG
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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JG
During the afternoon, I decided to add to my short positions. Bought a few Sept 27.5 Puts
JR
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Registered User
Joined: 3/9/2005
Posts: 71
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Last I checked the Support on this was @ $30.47
I have not looked at the 15 minute, daily and weekly Stocs to see if they have a consensus to be an oversold here.
Do your homework before you short here.
Remember the institues drive this and any issue so look for there activity.
And forget the gross deception from the super sales people of cnbc.
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