Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
I,m looking too get into TIE.ITs aways braking new highs .I,m sick watch this stock going up with out me.should I jump in ? Any thioughts on this one
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 37
|
Just do it; I got in at $42 then again at $76; It's going to split on the 16th.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 37
|
You might want to compare it with NTRI or NXG, they are go too.
|
|
 Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
I would not buy it before the split.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 37
|
Look at it's history at the last splits. It just keeps going, and probabaly will for another year or two, as long as the demand for planes is up.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
Your probably right....I am simply going by a rule of thumb I've noticed on stocks that Double in 12-6mo. typically you get a huge surge 1-2 days then then a hard reversal for 3-5 days. Along with the split coming up you could get a nice pull back. And given your outlook it will be back to its high within a month. This could be a great opportunity.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
What tipped you off at $40...do you have any other stocks you do not own which you would give reasons for buying with this potential.
Perhaps the buy with the stop would work..here.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
I hope so this bought 50 shares
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
I would bet tomorrow you see an open uptowards $92, then towards Noon you will see it fail and everyone who bought the last 4-5 days and put stops in will have built a bridge of domino's and each stop will trigger more stops, all it will take is a small trigger.
$66 with a little support. Possibly $56 before it whiplashes back to the
upside.
I've seen it many times. It is however difficult to take advantage of unless you are very quick and very confident of your stops and tape reading.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
People need to wake up. This is a BUBBLE!!!!! Yes, this and ALL metal companies had a great first quarter. I am in the metals business and have been for 33 years. Typical p/e's for metal companies are IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. This company is now trading at 40 times future earnings. It is going to fall unless all fund managers change their philosophy on where p/e's should be on steel companies. Ride the bubble as long as you can, but don't be surprised when the price drop comes and it totally overshoots your stop!!!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
|
it would seem we are in a 5 year cycle similar to 82-87...and the dow is entering a speculative phase now or in the near future...the problem is if the growing economies dont correct P/e's for the industrials will have to expand.....and with the dollar falling the USA is on sale...the question really is how great is demand? it will be time to look at bottoming tech companies this summer i think...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
To evaluate a steel or mining company you have to know tons shipped out the door to determine whether they are growing. The second quarter will show that tons are not increasing. Just the price is increasing and that is being caused by hedgefund speculation of raw materials.
I know cramer keeps saying these are the growth companies of the future. He's full of crap. Metals are cyclical and always have been. For every two good years you have 3-5 bad or mediocre years.
Is exxon a growth company because oil happens to be at 70 dollars a barrel? No, they are just in a period where they will make more money. If they don't pay a dividend this money will never be seen by stockholders unless they sell their stock before oil drops.
China buys in streaks. Metal capacity was raised to support demand in China. When China is buying there is a metal shortage. When China turns off the spicket there is a huge surplus. In 2001, 2002, and part of 2003 china turned off the spicket. Stainless steel dropped from 1.10 to .57lb. Copper, aluminum, and titanium were selling at all time lows. Take a look at any metal or mining company financial during this period. They all were losing money bigtime.
In 2005 china picked up their buying and now stainless steel has gone from .57 to 1.50. Aluminum has gone from .70 to 1.70. Everyone is making great money. No one is growing except by acquisition. We are not growth companies, and never will be.
Metal rises HARD AND FAST, AND IT GOES DOWN HARD AND FAST. Just be careful.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
|
i appreciate the fact you are in the metal industry thanks for the insight...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
These stocks can still go up but it is not based on anything other then speculation. The experts say at least 40% of commodity pricing right now is purely speculative.
When these stocks go down they will go down without warning. One day TIE will just open at 70 dollars and someone's stop loss order at 80 will not do them any good.
I look at it this way.
The dollar is falling.
Supposedly there is a huge ongoing demand for metal in china. China has always been a net importer of metals. If business is so good there, why were two chinese metal companies in my office in the last two months trying to sell me steel? Why would they even want to sell it at lower price because of the weak US dollar when they should be able to sell it to europe? The answer is in my opinion that steel demand is drying up, and china has turned off the spigot.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
Hey, I might have hit this on the money....may see that great 20pt-25pt drop here.
with a following big bounce.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
I shorted 10 shares just for a test.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
short with a stop at 92.6
short GLD at with stop at 72.5
short WIRE with stop 47.25
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
|
funny thing i was checking this one last night out of curiousity and it said it was down 10 dollars in pre market...strange
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
Here is a very well respected steel company that couldn't even meet expectations during the first quarter which was great for most steel companies. This company is noted for having some of the best quality steel products in the world.
QUOTESAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian steel holding company Arcelor Brasil (ARCE3.BR), the umbrella company for European steel giant Arcelor's (5786.FR) Brazilian assets, posted a first-quarter net profit of 321 million Brazilian reals ($153 million), down 79% from BRL1.52 billion in the year-ago quarter, the company said in a statement Friday.
Arcelor Brasil attributed the decline in net profit to weak domestic demand for flat steel products and lower international steel prices in the export market. The Brazilian real's 7.2% appreciation against the U.S. dollar also affected the company's results, Arcelor Brasil said.
Net revenue in the first quarter slipped 8% to BRL3.29 billion from BRL3.57 billion in the year-ago quarter. Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, decreased 40% to BRL960 million from BRL1.61 billion.
Ebitda margin, a key indicator of profitability, tumbled to 29% in the first quarter from 45% in the comparable period a year ago.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
ATI, cramers stock pick of the year has insiders selling 18% of their holdings in the last 3 months.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
First resistence 78-79
Next resistence 70.
add some more short on GLD stop at 72.60
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
TIE Upside resistence 84.5 should see it pop back here to 83-84.50.
Monday?
Still hope for some downside to 70 next week.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
The uptrend is still intact, but I think people are starting to protect their profits.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
These guys will bounce like crazy....
GLD will bounce around 64-65...and goto 80.0 by OCT-DEC.
The metals are not done this is just volitility setting in.
TIE will bounce around 68-70 (may only get 74) and will probably be $100 by OCT.
WIRE down to 36 bounce be 60 by end of year.
The uptrend is still very much in tact. I just see some big swings here over the next month. Market will inflict as much pain as it can.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
like too try too pick some TIE up at 78.20 and sell at 81 .Any thoughts on this?
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
Watch towards the close today....
Big risk but you might be able to buy at the close today and sell next week.
My best W.A.G. as of 1 min ago. (Wild A$$ Guess)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
thanks the candles are get very small down and is very close too 78.07 mite break this low
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
The market is dropping bigtime right now. That is confirmation of two major distribution days. This is not the time to take on new long positions.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
I,m this doing it for the day and geting out....did it once yeasterday .
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
dam I miss it going up some now
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
If this is the beginning of a wave 4 downtrend it could take the stock to anywhere from 60-73.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
thank you very much
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
going too try too short this one if the candles looks good then sell it before the close.I this miss geting this one on the up stage now well try too catch it on the way down
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
upside monday is 84
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
WAG
I think it will open monday 83-85..till..10:30et trade down to $68 close around $72-73
Outside chance of trading down to 60-64 if so will close around 68-70
then trade towards 84-87 with in the next couple of days.
(If you believe that...I might have some other B.S. to sell you)
-The weatherman.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
WAG 2
Opens at $70-68 trades higher all day closing at $83-84
Cover my ass....he he he
Im currenly short at 89, and 82. small position.
put at $70...hope to cover monday-tuesday.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2005
Posts: 17
|
I don't see a decrease in demand , the cost of delevery will be the cost to deal with. China does like to twisrt the Mrkt, big fish in a little pond. Waiting for SID to get closer to 30 to buy. Not sure about American Steel Stocks , think our political situation will make our stocks suffer.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
Closed Shorts -
Wire $39
TIE $73
Still open on GLD
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
|
dam sold my short on firday.but I made mistake in IIIN I made a short of 1000 shares but i got out making some money.Going this buy 100 short of IIIN.I donot like make a mistake like that>hard my margin omost too the maxs.Have too not make that mistake like that again
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
My best guess is this stock's wave 5 should have ended at 59.00-67.00. It instead, due to enormous speculation, went up to 90 before correcting. I believe in the coming months this stock will drop below the above level. I also predict within 2 years this stock will be selling below 25.00.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |