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diceman
Posted : Tuesday, March 28, 2006 9:42:50 PM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
 I dont know anything about Elliott Waves but,

the pattern on BZH seems like a text book example ???
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bknight
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 9:17:38 AM
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
 What formation are you referring?
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diceman
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 9:38:09 AM
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 bknight

Any time I've seen a description of EW analysis in books. They show a pattern of a rally followed by a sell off followed by another rally and so on. They use this to
show how to count the waves.

The pattern of BZH (Beazer Homes) seems to match it.
Rally/Selloff as if it was drawn by hand.

I wondered if EW's think this is a good pattern? I figure if I can see it then it must be clear EW. Of course there are price objectives to be met and I don't know if it follows them.

Thanks
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HaveNoCents
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 1:02:00 PM
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
 It is in a new wave 3 uptrend. If I disregarded what I think is going to happen in the housing market the stock could go to 100.00 but I wouldn't bet on it.
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rmr1976
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 4:05:30 PM
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Posts: 457
 All of the Homebuilders have good elliott patterns.

I'll have to disagree with HnC. Most of the Homebuilders I've followed seem to have completed their 5 wave advance back in July. I'll have to look at the charts, but most of them are in some form of wave 2 correction or wave B in a downtrend.
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diceman
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 4:41:27 PM
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Posts: 6,049
 Just remember if history is any guide. The last time interest rates hit multi-decade lows was after the great depression. Interest rates stayed flat for something like
12 years. They didn't start rising in earnest until the mid or late 1940s.

I agree that the next major move in interest rates will be
up. (what else?) It just may take a long, long time to happen. (more than a decade)

After all this "tightening" by the fed--these interest rates look pretty good if you were around when Carter was president.
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HaveNoCents
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 9:56:46 PM
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 RMR, its in it's second full wave which started in 2004.
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ltfinger
Posted : Wednesday, March 29, 2006 11:10:12 PM
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Joined: 10/10/2004
Posts: 22
 HNC,

What specifically is your point of reference in 2004?
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