Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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Hello everybody, this is my first posting.
I have a short position on SHW and FLR. I'm currently down 12% on SHW and breakeven on FLR.
SHW has been rallying since I shorted it a week ago. I haven't taken the loss because the BOP has been in the Reds and it look like it is close to a resistance area and I have been waiting for it to turn back and crash. FLR, same thing, except I'm at breakeven.
The way I'm seeing it, these two stocks should be turning back down from the rally. I would like to see if anybody else have some opinons on the short term outlook for these two stocks.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I think you are in big trouble on shw. The stock went down on news of a lead paint lawsuit and a possible lowering of its credit rating because of that lawsuit, but the company was raising profit forecasts. This stock has an excellent chance of getting right back where it was before the huge drop.
I'm afraid the news is not good for FLR either in my opinion. This stock just completed it's wave 4 correction and could very easily get back to 90.00
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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You should have already covered your SHW short. Never let losses ride that far. At minimum you should have covered when it crossed the 22 day MA on good volume.
FLR I think will probably continue down, but there are better trades out there. Look at MTH for example. I think ALL home builder and supplier stocks will remain in bearish trends until the Fed stops raising interest rates.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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BTW, if it makes you feel better, I took a small loss on SHW myself. I got stopped out a few days ago.
If you haven't covered that one yet, it leads me to believe you really didn't have a plan. You always need a plan and an exit strategy no matter which way it goes.
Not trying to be harsh, just give a dose of reality. Just call me Simon 
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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Thanks guys. I was letting it go up to what I thought was resistance at 50. But I became concerned that 50 might not be a resistance area as BOP is changing character.
Reality is harsh, but that's life. :D
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 12/30/2004
Posts: 42
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HNC / 62, how do you view the period from Oct. '02 to present? This system shows 53.61 in the distant future but is unclear at present because of the gap in Feb.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Before the gap I was viewing it as being in wave 1. It was starting to go into wave 2 when the news came out. The gap was an over reaction to news so to me you can say part of it was wave 2 and we are now in wave 3.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 12/30/2004
Posts: 42
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) Before the gap I was viewing it as being in wave 1. It was starting to go into wave 2 when the news came out. The gap was an over reaction to news so to me you can say part of it was wave 2 and we are now in wave 3.
Thanks, cann't get my system to look at it that way. Maybe we'll find out what makes a technically good looking stock go array.
I like several feature about your system, the scaning ability for one. Does it work as shown in the demo?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Yes it does, but to be honest, I have had better success looking for patterns in telechart. The system only has arithmetic charts and it is really difficult to get a feel for what a stock is doing.
When it makes a prediction I always try to confirm it in telechart because it makes some really bad choices.
The program has blue bars and red bars, for buying and selling. They are meaningless unless they occur in an area where a turn around is expected. You can go back and go to the last red or blue bar and see if it makes a prediction. Sometimes you have to go back a week or two.
What I do like about it over other programs is it does not change its forecast. Some programs will put you into a stock and then change waves on you. The program may be wrong, but it is consistent.
Over the last 20 days there has not been one prediction that I liked. They may have worked, but they were not confirmed by looking at the chart. I cannot just blindly follow a system.
I mentioned this before, but when you really know how to use the program it is worth it just to be able to predict tops and bottoms of the stocks you are currently in. I have found this to be extremely accurate.
I have owned at least 5 stocks that I would have sold too early because they started a minor downtrend. I looked at each downtrend and determined where the bottom was and adjusted my mental stops accordingly. The stocks later hit the target and returned their upward movement.
I even did this yesterday with Sirius, but the stock was so weak I decided to take profits yesterday, and buy back today if it showed strength. It dropped to my 4.75 target and I got back in at 4.83.
When you know likely price targets it makes things so much easier to me. No worrying about should I hold or sell. If the stock goes above your target you can use trailing stops. I just love it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Oh, and one other thing. I have tried this with greater success on the picks as well. You wait for the stock to go the way it was predicted, and re-evaluate your risk reward ratio. If it is still 2:1 or better you still enter the stock. That is why I always mention to people that the stock has to at least close at the entry price forecasted. It ALMOST ALWAYS hits that entry point because some bozos are placing buy limit orders at those prices and the market maker takes them out every single time, and then the stock moves in the opposite direction of what you want.
And you can never use their stops recommended for the very same reason. At least not until the stock moves well off of the entry price.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 12/30/2004
Posts: 42
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It sounds better every time I see something about it. It may turn out to be alot like my system but double or triple confirmation is always better then one.
Thanks for the time, hope I can return the favors.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I have to dissagree half of the way here. I aggree that you should have been out of your position if you already have 12% in losses. I disagree that SHW will resume the past uptrend. Furthermore I consider this as a potential and powerful short. For one thing I know lots of folks in SHW upper management, and things don't look too rosei regardless accounting reports. But despite my inside knowledge. Look at technicals and let me point out. The last high was as climatic as they come. The negative divergences in ROC and MS are of catastrophic proportions. MA's don't look too healthy - definately no lining up. TSV bounced back on that whipsaw, but is already at the top. Despite all of this you must wait for the stock to allow proper positioning, don't just go tomorrow and position yourself short because I said so.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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I have to agree with BB here. Although the chart is a bit ambiguous right now, IF it turns back down it could be a very powerful move. I've kept it on my short watch list for several days now.
To the long side, the move up on Friday was on VERY good volume. On the downside, it looks like it's losing a bit of momentum.
I would definately wait before taking any positions until the chart becomes more clear.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/15/2005
Posts: 13
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For a short position, the April 50 put looks a little heavy at bid/ask .85/.95 and the price has been rising on decreasing volume. I would try some April 50 puts if the price hits 51. The reason is, earnings on 4/20/06, and option expiration is 4/21/06. Sell the news buy the rumor. Now that I read what I wrote, would be better off to short (no option) on 4/19/06 IMHO.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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SHW dropped yesterday and now is doing a nice rally. Hopefully this rally won't last because I just shorted it at 50.78.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/7/2006
Posts: 218
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i had been looking at a possible put on FLR but then i read on the companies website that they they have other business segments and one of them is large into coal...i would not short it...though it did loook like a shortable pattern to me, hindsight tells me iwould have lost money
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well the program predicted that FLR would make it to 90.00 and it did hit a high of 89.98 which isn't too bad. That was for a minimum wave 5. The typical wave 5 for this stock should take it to the 96.50 to 99.25 range. I think this sock is strong enough to make it to that area.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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HaveNoCents,
I'm glad I got off the FLR train a while back. Say, you have any input on SHW. I jumped back in and shorted it gain because it heading into resistance.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It's really difficult to say. As I said in my first post in this thread, I believe this stock was in wave 3 before the panic lawsuit selling. According to my program the stock had the ability to go up to 54.30-54.80 area before it should have corrected into a wave 4.
Where it is now nobody knows. The stock is due for a real correction and if I had it shorted here I would cover in the 47-50 range because it will then have another leg up.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I think you are in big trouble on shw. The stock went down on news of a lead paint lawsuit and a possible lowering of its credit rating because of that lawsuit, but the company was raising profit forecasts. This stock has an excellent chance of getting right back where it was before the huge drop.
I'm afraid the news is not good for FLR either in my opinion. This stock just completed it's wave 4 correction and could very easily get back to 90.00
Just for the record. SHW before the huge drop was at 52.57. It closed at 57.79 yesterday.
FLR hit 91.07 today.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It closed at 52.79 yesterday
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