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Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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As much as I hate to bet against AAPL, if it doesn't break above the 22 day MA, I believe it will start another leg down. It was down today on strong volume and other technicals look in the crapper.
If it breaks above the 22 MA, it could reverse.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Apple is just starting wave 5 after a wave 4 correction. This stock is going up in my not so humble opinion.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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We'll probably know after tomorrow. If it does break to the upside, you're probably right. If it breaks down, sorry but I'll bet against you. I think it's 50/50 until we see which way it breaks.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I don't know what is so special about a 22 day moving average. I can give you a list of 2000 stocks that broke below their 22 day moving average that made new highs. Now if you said 200 day moving average I might agree with you. This stock is going to 95-100 if the total market doesn't correct before it has a chance to make it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC,
I'm going to have to agree with the bears on AAPL. I don't see the correction as having ended yet.
Short term, I see a possible rally up to the 72 mark one more time, but then it is down, likely to the 55-56 level.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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The projected wave 4 downtrend (weekly chart)was from 53 to 66 dollars. Now I am making an assumption that the stock has reversed from a low of 62.45 low on 3/10, but I don't think that was much of an assumption as we are now at 66.23.
Time will tell. I just love making predictions. I need to write them all down somewhere so I can see my batting average.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC,
How has that batting average been so far? I've noticed my calls on the market have been fair, but I've been pretty good on individual stocks. How about you?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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When I take the program's "automatic setups" and do no analysis on my own my results have been absolutely terrible. Actually less than 30%. They say this is acceptable as long as you control your risk and let your profits run. I cannot be happy being 30% correct. If I can't be right more than 50% of the time I cannot enjoy trading. When I use some of my old analysis and create my own stops and risk rewards my win percentage increases dramatically to over 56%.
In terms of risk management I am now a better trader. Every trade now has the same potential loss.
In terms of actual money made which is the most important factor, I cannot yet say there is an improvement over my old style. It's only been 1 month, and my winners have not reached their target areas yet. I am up since I have used the program, but nothing to say "wow" yet. I have not devoted much of my money yet either though, because my trading strategy is still evolving. I think it will take a full year to determine the proper strategy.
Like I mentioned in another thread I believe no matter what this program will help me stay in a stock longer because I will understand the price movement of the stock. I will also never be afraid to jump into a stock which is in a wave 3 if I know where the wave 3 is most likely to end. I have not even tried to do that type of trading yet. I have concentrated on stocks which really have crummy patterns that could have a strong move up. I am doing this because this was a weak area of my former trading. Another weak area of my former trading were high flying stocks that looked like they were rolling over actually were just in a wave 4 correction and later reach new highs. That won't happen anymore.
In terms of using the program's predictive power in definitive elliot wave patterns, the program will pick the area of the high or low and be correct over 80% of the time. I know I never had the ability on my own to do that.
The Apple prediction is a long shot at best because I don't believe the market has enough legs to allow it to happen, and it is based on elliot waves that began in 2004. If the market can make it to apple's next reporting date in good shape I believe the stock will move higher than most think, I definitely wouldn't want to be short.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) If the market can make it to apple's next reporting date in good shape I believe the stock will move higher than most think, I definitely wouldn't want to be short.
That's why one of the 10 commandments of TRADING (vs investing) is never hold a stock over earnings. If you're really conservative, you won't hold it over the pre-announcement stage either.
And I agree with you, this is a short term short (as most are these days) because the underlying company is such a good one. Remember that I made this call when the stock was at $67. I easily see at least $7 downside, possibly more. I have a hundred shares short and I'm up $300 just today only (yeah, paper only) I could be wrong, but I think I'll end up with a $700 or more gain on this one.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) I don't know what is so special about a 22 day moving average.
In and of itself, nothing much. But the MA in this case was touching the downtrend line. That combined with the confirming indicators of TSV, BOP, MS, and most importantly - down volume all added up.
Like I said, things like EW are great, but you can never ignore the basics.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well to me the basics are the 150 and 200 day moving average and until they drop below that I consider the drop meaningless. Sure you can make money off it it, but the trend is not over.
Take a look how many times apple has bounced off it's 150 moving average in the last two years. You might be surprised. It has never even come close to touching it's 200 day moving average.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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Like I said, we are in agreement that the AAPL long term trend is bullish.
There is NOTHING wrong with a short term play of a stock and picking up a few hundred $$$. Look at it this way. It is not out of the question that I could get a 10% profit in about a week.
I'll take that every day.
When it turns back up, as it will, I'll be right there with you buying it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Hey, short it. All I am saying is that you said that apple is a good short from here if it drops below its 22 day moving average. I am disagreeing with you. It just bounced off it's 150 day moving average on march 9. It has bounced off this average at least 4 previous times. There is not much downside to the 150ma from this point. There is a heck of a lot more risk than there is reward at this particular point.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well I bought a little of this today at 64.39 that way if I am wrong it will cost me money, lol.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 2
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O.K. this is getting interesting,I am betting with the bulls, just bought april/67.50 calls @ $2.45, let's see who is right and thanks for this topic.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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Well right now it's a descending triangle, bad MS and TSV to the downside vs a 150 day MA supporting it. It will be very intersting to see which one wins.
One or two days at the most we should know. The closer it gets to the point of the descending triangle the less relevant it is.
Fortunately I already have a prett good gain in this stock so even if it breaks to the upside I'll still come out ahead.
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Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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Yep. it's still in flux but breaking down along 5 day ema from this position is very weak. My bet is down to 42-43 zone.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I took the day off yesterday, and watched the action of the stock. I must admit, I did not like what I witnessed. There was a great deal of selling into every rally, but on the bright side every time the stock dropped to the 64.00 area the stock rallied off of that area. I think we might be a temporary resting place and whatever the move the stock makes will be an accelerated move.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 19
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Consider these facts for AAPL:
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio is 1.05- rather neutral
1 yr. Percentile ranking 95%-High ranking is not bullish for a downtrending stock
Volume P/C Ratio is 0.68-Considerably more calls than puts-Lots of calls looking for a bounce up. Not a bullish situation.
Short interest ratio is 0.53 days. Not much buying power here for the bulls.
I purchased July 65 Puts for 4.2 and now at 6.7-Nice profit. Hopefullly it will bounce up and eventually go to mid 40's..
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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If it closes below 62.40 I will be bearish, but not until then.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well it looks like it will close below 62.40. I won't sell my shares until tomorrow, but I was definitely wrong.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) but I was definitely wrong.
I wouldn't say "definately" just yet. At this point I'd say probably. It hasn't broken out of the triangle, but it does not look good. Tomorrow will tell for sure, but if I were you, I'd sell during after hours market.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I have to wait for tomorrow. Today was a bad news day for apple because of France and the ipod. I never sell a stock on a bad news day. It's just one of my rules.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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What happened to AAPL today??? It collapsed today. It is so far down it is looking oversold, and is due for a bounce, which may be a fairly sharp countertrend rally that could take this back to the 69-75 level (a 61% retrace of the decline).
I count a 5 waves down, and it appears today's move is the end of a 5 of 5 from both the January high, and the February high.
On the bearish side, this count is very bearish, implying the bull move in AAPL is over for the forseeable future.
Since this decline has a 5 wave structure, that means there is much further on the downside to go.
I'd need tomorrow for confirmation. A close above today's high would strengthen my conviction in this analysis. There is also a good chance that we won't know for sure until next week.
Tomorrow might see an open not too far from today's close, a sell off through the middle of the day, only to close toward the highs. If that happens with tomorrow being a high volume day, I'd be pretty confident the decline is done. That would be a hammer reversal, and would push the confirmation out until next week.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I got out at 62.76 the other during the mini rally. I watched the increased selling into the rally and that convinced me. It looks to me like everyone is scared because of this france copyright thing.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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AAPL up 5% today! Suffice it to say, I think it has reached an interim bottom. I plan on buying some calls tomorrow. I think AAPL could trade up to 69-75 when all is said and done.
Longer term--still bearish.
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Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
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rmr1976,
In your experience, what type of options tend to make money for you? Near money or out of money? Options within a month or further out?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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I usually buy ITM, slightly ATM, or slightly OTM. If I do buy deep OTM options, I buy lots of time, or I do a spread.
For very short term trades--ie. less than 1 month, an ITM option is probably best, although if you look at my NEM trade, I managed to do well with an OTM option.
The options with a higher delta will be more responsive to price changes in the stock. So pick options near the current stock price.
I'll have to look at the AAPL options, but I'll probably take an ATM or ITM option, because AAPL contracts are expensive in terms of time value.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It there is follow through tomorrow this stock can make it back to 90. I will buy one more time if it can close above 62.52
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Joined: 3/14/2005
Posts: 20
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I actually bought a call option on Apple yesterday, March 28. The way I was seeing things, there was a positive TSV (18) divergence on the daily chart, plus it was nearing its 200-day moving average. I figured that the odds of it moving up and bouncing off that moving average were pretty good, and it seems to have worked so far.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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I got filled for a 60-70 July Bull Call spread. I'm still a long term bear, but there are some of the bull market sectors that look like they want to rally. So I'm playing both the long and the short side. Apple is one of my long picks.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I bought a couple of hundred shares today. If the trend looks strong I will buy some more on a pullback.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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I'm so far ahead on this short I can afford to hold it awhile to see what it does. I see the signs, but I'm not convinced yet. Today's rally was on abysmal volume. I would strongly advice not putting a lot of money into it just yet - at least until the picture is a little more clear. Just MHO.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Inspector,
Yesterday was the candle reversal day on huge volume.
What tomorrow brings, I don't know. A pullback to the midpoint of yesterday's candle is likely, in my book. But a continuation of the uptrend is certainly not out of the question.
When do you plan on closing out the short? A close above the 22 day moving average? That would be a logical spot.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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QUOTE (rmr1976) Inspector, When do you plan on closing out the short? A close above the 22 day moving average? That would be a logical spot.
Exactly, I'll close out above the 22 MA, or possibly if it pulls back to the 200 day MA again - why push the luck. I'll evaluate it when and if it does. At that point I'll start looking for a long entry position.
A couple of indicators turned bearish again today. OBV and TSV mainly. If stochastics would confirm this I'd feel better about it.
I'm just not sure all the selling is done yet. Having said that, I'm pretty confident we are far closer to the bottom than the top.
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Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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Like I said, it just didn't look like a bottom to me. Maybe it won't break through the 200 day MA, but I think it has to test it again. If it holds, I'll watch it for a long entry.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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If I'm right, AAPL should not move lower from here. Regardless, I plan on getting out of this before the 19th--when AAPL announces earnings.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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This is the one stock I am staying in through earnings.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
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I'm holding a VERY tight stop on this.
HNC, good luck with that, it's a pretty risky thing to do. I decent upside report may cause a small pop, but a small miss leads to a big drop.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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AAPL is up $2 in premarket.
New software to run XP on MAC machines.
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