Registered User
Joined: 10/9/2005
Posts: 18
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Rallying from a short term bottom and indicators looking pretty solid. Although chart isn't the best looking on a longer term basis my eyes are open.....
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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I don't like this one .. to light on volume for me !!!! yeah right .. 75 million traded today alone. A very quick , simple analysis of this one. I looked at the weekly chart . It is still in the down trend channel , the body of the candle is just under the top trend line . The top of the wick touched the 50 ma , but did not break through it. From the looks of it this stock is getting ready to break out of the top of the trend channel. This would be a great entry point. Nice spot .. will place this one on the watch list
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I agree. It's one to watch, but it is still in a distinct downtrend. There isn't any news driving this stock, so I must assume it is nothing but momentum investing with that type of volume, and very little institutional sponsorship. I think when the momentum dies down this will go back to .40 cents.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/9/2005
Posts: 18
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Nice move today on monster volume and indicators look great. I believe it's poised to move thru the 50 day ma early next week.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Yeah, it got to make lots more noise mate, before I would pay attention. It just had a couple of high pitches.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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It's now at strong resistance. Two very notable resistance areas...the 200ma, and old horizontal support of July and October. But still, that is hellacious volume lately, so whose to say it won't rest a while and then continue upward, ya think? Since you originally made the post it looks like it may be forming a handle on a 3-mo. cup. A watcher, good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Here comes some elliot wave analysis.
The stock is now in a corrective wave 4 downtrend.
It will most likely trade between .56 and 77 cents until it makes its move up to wave 5. I cannot tell you where wave 5 will likely take it until wave four is completed, but it will most likely be higher than .81 cents. Obviously the higher this stock completes wave 4 the higher the price of wave 5 will go.
Typically wave 5 is approximately the same length as wave 1, so you will have about 8-10 trading days before wave five will be finished, but as I said, we still have to wait for wave 4 to complete.
This stock also fits perfectly with elliott analysis. They are few and far between, so lets see how good this crap works.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC,
I know you don't like Pretcher's book, but flip to page 162, 3-4 sentences from the bottom of the page:
"The best approach seems to be to avoid trying to analyze each individual issue on an Elliott basis unless a clear Elliott pattern unfolds before your eyes and commands attention."
None of these penny stocks are all that interesting, technically or fundamentally. It certainly doesn't fit in with Elliott Wave analysis.
What I do find interesting is the number of people who find speculative stocks like this interesting, despite the fact we have an inverted yield curve, and a broad market that has gone essentially nowhere 2 years, and bulls all over the idiot box, with drool dripping from their chins, saying: "Earnings are great; stocks go higher."
I think I could create an indicator based on the amount of spam I get touting these penny stocks.
There are times to dabble in the bargin basement section of Wall Street. Suffice it to say, now isn't the time.
Really, if you want some bang for the buck, trade options.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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RMR, actually I am following Steve Griffiths Elliot wave theory. He is the delvelopor of that mt predictor software. He has a a download in pdf format on his elliot beliefs that make a WHOLE LOT MORE SENSE than anything else I've read. I am going to experiment with it and see if it works.
There is one thing I find very disconcerting. It is possible to look at a chart from a daily standpoint and get one wave analysis, and look at a weekly,, and get another. I know this happens in regular analysis where a weekly chart may have an opposite trend than a daily, but for some reason I was not expecting that in Elliott waves. It is also possible to look at a daily or weekly chart and get a distinct 5 and obvious elliott waveform, and not have any distinguishable for in the other.
Here is something even more scary, as I am short in the market. If you use Griffiths method of analysis, the dow will be over 11000 in very short order, and the sp-500 will be over 1300 in the next couple of months. This not does BODE WELL FOR MY 8 DIA PUT CONTRACTS, or my overall negative bias in the market.
This weekend I have gone back in time and looked at charts determining if there was something elliott I could trade based upon. The results were pretty darn accurate, and I was amazed. My next few weeks of trading are going to be fun. I have a small account I plan to trade 100% elliott. I am also going to document every single thing I do. I already have set up elliott watchlists such as elliott winners, and elliott losers, and potential elliott trades.
LET THE FUN BEGIN!!!!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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"There is one thing I find very disconcerting. It is possible to look at a chart from a daily standpoint and get one wave analysis, and look at a weekly,, and get another. I know this happens in regular analysis where a weekly chart may have an opposite trend than a daily, but for some reason I was not expecting that in Elliott waves. It is also possible to look at a daily or weekly chart and get a distinct 5 and obvious elliott waveform, and not have any distinguishable for in the other."
I don't see this as problematic. I usually work from the weekly, monthly, and then daily. The weekly chart is the most important one, IMHO.
Steve Posner goes into detail about how to do a detailed analysis. It was something I had been doing with conventional charting (once I got the hang of it).
"Here is something even more scary, as I am short in the market. If you use Griffiths method of analysis, the dow will be over 11000 in very short order, and the sp-500 will be over 1300 in the next couple of months. This not does BODE WELL FOR MY 8 DIA PUT CONTRACTS, or my overall negative bias in the market."
Why does this remind me of the story where Richard Dennis asks one of his "Turtue Traders" something like:
"Ok, you've done your analysis, and decide to short the SP Futures on the market open. We talk, and you find out that I'm very bullish. What do you do?"
"I think I would lose confidence in the trade" the student replied.
"Wrong. You should think for yourself."
If you were already successful with what you had been doing, Elliott should build upon that, not totally undermine it.
I've been doing Elliott, for about 3+ years, without the help of any software.
What I do know, is that you are going to have an awful time trying to program the computer to deal with corrections, which is what we are in now.
Based on my analysis, which I have good reason to have confidence in (see my posts), I find it unlikely that Griffin's analysis is going to be correct.
Take a look at your own indicators. What are they telling you?
Best of luck, however, in your study of Elliott. I'm always happy to talk about this.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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There is no way I am going to change my overall thought on the direction of the market any time soon. There are still too many industries trading well above all of their averages, and everything I see right now convinces me that commodities are the only thing driving this market. Commodities can, an often do, drop like a rock once the speculators feel like they don't have much more upside potential.
The thing I like about Griffith's analysis of elliott is it allows you to enter some pretty low risk positions based on fibonacci retracements that I would never enter with my current system. For me, a trend is not reversed until the stock moves past a previous high or low. This philosophy works, but it really makes you miss a large part of the trend.
As an example, there are many stocks that may go straight down, form a V bottom, and almost make it right back to where the stock originally started its downtrend. I would never trade this type of movement in the past, but he has opened my eyes.
Any way, no matter what happens, it's going to be an education. Hopefully, not an education that is too expensive.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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all this talk of elliot waves and markets crashing around my ears is making my head hurt !!! LOL
I like the KISS method . I use simple trend channels , volume , support and resistance lines and play strong sectors ( I also use CCI and stochastics to confrim entry and exit) .It works for me as I only buy long and make 75% return year after year no matter what the market does...even in a down market there are still stocks that have to go up.
LOUD does have an upside potential if it can get through the 200 day MA. It is an up and coming sector (I belive that tech , pharma and utilities will be the sectors for later this year as resources become out of favour). You cannot ignore that fact that recently it broke out of the top of a 1 year down trending channel on huge volume (look at weekly chart). If it can break out above the 200 day MA on good volume this is a buy for me.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/9/2005
Posts: 18
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As a novice charter(previously long time ignorant investor--no more brokers), I am all about the KISS method as there's only so much one can digest over a period of months. I use the Worden indicators along with MA and RSI. Being in a long term downtrend, LOUD was a higher risk buy, but the indicators gave me enough confidence to jump in(lightly).
So far my results have been good as my account is up 10% plus since Nov. Maybe I'll find some extra brain capacity in '06 to try and take on Mr. Elliott or Mr. Griffith, but for now ignorance is bliss....
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Malcomb, what you just listed are all the tools anyone needs in your bag of tricks. Those same tools have served me well for 11 years.
My weaks points in trading come EXACTLY during this time of the market. We are in the last stages of a bull market. I see many tops formings for many stocks that once were great trending stocks. I've seen many stocks that have already corrected, and I see speculative stocks that have moved up or down too fast to trade. These are all areas that I normally would never trade until a better understanding of where the stock was heaaded could be reasonably determined.
I find this form of elliott training a possible missing link during thes times of uncertainty. Especially this guys training which depends only on finding an up-down-up sequence on a chart, or a down-up-down sequence. He doesn't care where you are in the elliott formation, he trades those sequences which are also known as ABC corrective waves. In elliott, wave3 is your most profitable trading range. An ABC move almost always precedes a wave threee move of some type.
Anyway, I am going to find something in elliott that works for me.
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