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Registered User
Joined: 3/11/2005
Posts: 16
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Here is my forecast for stocks on a short term basis,
Excessive optimism on a short term basis , short term price momemtum is negative, some technical divergence ( new highs are one exception)on a short term basis, but overall intermediate technical indicators are bullish. Long term sentiment is bullish in contrast to short term sentiment.
Finally, the stock market is fairly valued and monetary conditions are neutral to negative. Inflation is under control and no recession is in sight.
Overall , I expect some short term weakness.
Comments????
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I thing the market is looking for a reason to correct. When it finds it, it won't be pretty.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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Correction?
Not time yet. I expect DJ-30 a touch to low 10300's or high 10200's...then new highs.
Nasduck about to become true national exchange, open to retirement funds et al from states that don't allow participation in SRO's. More cash, more up...at least until retirement outflows outpace inflows. Thats still a few years off. I'll expect the govt to muck with ERISA some more before then.
Just my two (barely) cents.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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QUOTE (awshucks) Correction?
Not time yet. I expect DJ-30 a touch to low 10300's or high 10200's...then new highs.
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Wouldn't that be considered a correction?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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No...that would be a touch on longer term support. '01-'03...thats a correction. 9000 area I would consider a 'correction' these days.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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If we fail to make a new high from here, then I would look for a 'major' correction like '74/'75 in todays bucks. Grim. But then thats what PPT and 'circuit breakers' are for...if they work.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Well, they used to say anything less than 15 percent would be a correction, and anything more, a bear market decline.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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Thats true...but 'they' used to say it before the $/gold non-correlation. A true bear market decline at this time would make 1929 look like a stroll in the park.
I think they can band-aid things together until 2010-2012, then the fit hits the shan. Money is energy and energy is finite.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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yep, in 2010 and higher there will probably be more outflows than inflows into mutual funds.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) yep, in 2010 and higher there will probably be more outflows than inflows into mutual funds.
Yep, but thats only one thing with more outflow than inflow...convergence of 'outflows'.
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