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Joined: 12/8/2004
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He just recommended two of my shorts. SIRI, AND BBY. Why do I have the feeling I will get stopped out of those stocks on Monday?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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It would take a mountain of positive volume to overcome gravity on BBY. Check long term price by volume. He's looking for a good exit there.
He must own a lot of SIRI...nothing like a talking head to put the brakes to selling (it was already drying up). Mah, what a coinkidink...3 year price by volume shows dead air 'tween $5 and $4...much further down and a short sharp shock looms.
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Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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siri has had a run down from around 7.75 to about5.50 and intel from about 30 to 20.
I do not feel that i personally would want to short either one but i am looking more at this point to start buying them
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Joined: 1/28/2006
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Gary...I don't like SIRI yet. The entire run up was divergent based on long term distribution. I'd wager a short on any further weakness...what the hey, capture 20% when theres blood in the streets. I'd buy it averaging down if I had the cash for longer term...perfect candidate for buyout by land based radio chain looking to give XM run for its money.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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I agree with awsucks. BBY looks like it is in a good spot to short, at least for a swing trade.
I do expect something of a bounce next week, but nothing major. If we end up over 1280 again in the next week, I'd be surprised.
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Joined: 1/28/2006
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QUOTEI agree with awsucks
Hey now...wait for the bad calls before renaming me...
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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OOPS!
Sorry about that!
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Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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No worries...typo's can be fun.
Awsucks hurls  at rmr's noggin'...
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Joined: 10/9/2005
Posts: 18
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He definitely can move a stock with a lower float...but genrally it's a one day move at best. ie--I owned JADE previous to some comments on Thursday. I got lucky and made mad(sorry-I couldn't resist)money, but not being a pig, I was history early this morning. The stock isn't back where I bought it, but it's pretty darned close. Bottom line--over the long term, I believe his commentary isn't the kiss of death, but short term he can put a smile on your face or piss you off.........
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Joined: 1/28/2006
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Yep...the sheeple will follow just about anyone to the poor house. Psych-wise they always then have someone else to blame.
I like trading stocks that move with no hype. The reasons are better (and usually very closely held) and so are the returns.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 166
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) He just recommended two of my shorts. SIRI, AND BBY. Why do I have the feeling I will get stopped out of those stocks on Monday?
Haveno;
I think you may see the "Cramer pump" effect to about $7.6 maybe $8. Its been in consolidation all of 2005 to now. Thats surprising given the Howard Stern pump and dump at yearend/New Year. Something is hanging over this stock (maybe early investors who got in early 2003 and/or mid 2004?). If you are short, I'd take the chance and wait for the tax selling in March assuming it doesn't breakout over the $7.60 by then. Like most things, depending on your "pain tolerance" I'd plan on it as a loss for now.
Re: BBY
My sympathies but life does go on even after Cramer.
In consolidation since beginning 2004 and/or late 1999. Again, depending on where you got in, $51 down to $48.6 is a tempting target to short. I'd take profits at $42.6 area.
Also, this one I'd ride out the bumps and hold for the tax selling.
Happy Charting
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Joined: 1/28/2006
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Hello Mot.
RE SIRI: You don't feel Stern was a major 'sell the news' event? They're bleeding red ink and stock looks to be changing character. Best odds at this time, sell any break of $5 or wait for overtly good signal. Those on sell side may want to set stops to 6.25 area if they are very nervous....
I say down to five and failure to see buy-side volume and consolidation confirming buy side...get ready for more down. Both TSV and my ltv/st stochastics say more down.
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QUOTE (motmouth) QUOTE (HaveNoCents) He just recommended two of my shorts. SIRI, AND BBY. Why do I have the feeling I will get stopped out of those stocks on Monday? Haveno; I think you may see the "Cramer pump" effect to about $7.6 maybe $8. Its been in consolidation all of 2005 to now. Thats surprising given the Howard Stern pump and dump at yearend/New Year. Something is hanging over this stock (maybe early investors who got in early 2003 and/or mid 2004?). If you are short, I'd take the chance and wait for the tax selling in March assuming it doesn't breakout over the $7.60 by then. Like most things, depending on your "pain tolerance" I'd plan on it as a loss for now. Re: BBY My sympathies but life does go on even after Cramer. In consolidation since beginning 2004 and/or late 1999. Again, depending on where you got in, $51 down to $48.6 is a tempting target to short. I'd take profits at $42.6 area. Also, this one I'd ride out the bumps and hold for the tax selling. Happy Charting
The SIRI I shorted at 6.33 so there is no way I am going to let it climb back anywhere close to my entry. I have a nice 2000 profit it. If need be I will close it and short again.
My BBY short has only turned profitable the last few days. I shorted it at 49.84. Personally I think that if this stock breaks 45.00 it has an excellent chance of going down to 40 with very little resisistance.
I don't think I have owned a stock that has had the "cramer" effect built into the price. It will be interesting to see what happens on monday.
Now if JCP will rollover, I will be one happy camper.
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Joined: 1/28/2006
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RE JCP...next week should make you happy. 7 day hinting at it.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Well cramer may just have had an effect on SIRI. I am still short 2000 shares at 6.33, but since he recommended the stock it has gone from 5.33 to 5.98. If it goes above 6.13 it will be out of my channel and time to cover. Thanks cramer.
On BBY there has only been a .30 share difference. Not enough to sneeze at yet.
Today JCP moved from profitable to unprofitable. It seems to change every day. Short interest has been rising and I don't like to see that.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) Well cramer may just have had an effect on SIRI. I am still short 2000 shares at 6.33, but since he recommended the stock it has gone from 5.33 to 5.98. If it goes above 6.13 it will be out of my channel and time to cover. Thanks cramer.
On BBY there has only been a .30 share difference. Not enough to sneeze at yet.
Today JCP moved from profitable to unprofitable. It seems to change every day. Short interest has been rising and I don't like to see that.
At this point I'd hold on for the tax selling to begin between now and end March.
Happy Charting
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Well I got stopped on on bby,and SIRI looks like it may stay on the high end of the channel.
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Joined: 11/23/2005
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What may be hanging over SIRI as well as XMSR is that they give away the first years service with new car sales. That first year is coming to an end and the jury is still out on how many will renew there service. This is a bigger concern for XM with the GM tie in. Also to that end Ford and Chrysler start suppling new cars with SIRI as a standard with the 2006 model year, prior to this its been a dealer installed option. SIRI may get more out of this then Stern.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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I really believe SIRI will ultimately win the satellite radio battle. XM just gave oprah a channel, but that will have little effect on new subscribers. Oprah is not going to be on the radio with some kind of new show, she is just going to have a channel. If she had a talk show of some kind I think that very well could have a effect on new subscribers, even more than stern had on SIRI.
This is going to be a battle on "content". Content is the only thing that can keep subscribers paying month in and month out.
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Joined: 3/7/2005
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Hnc. i think that oprah will have an overall positive effect for xm ,and i broke even on some sirius i bought and sold today. I would be a buyer if it goes back to 5.00 a share. How is your jcp.
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I have about a .40 a share profit on 600 shares shorted. Not too exciting yet.
I also bought 4 more puts on DIA today for a total of 9 (march 109 puts)
I shorted FISV at @44.80 and that seems to be working out pretty good.
I also shorted sohu at 22.56 but since this stock is in an uptrend I will not take any loss on this one. I have a very close stop.
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Oh, and I have 600 shares of KNDL shorted, but so far I am losing on that one.
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My personal observation is that shorting types of stocks like SIRI or BBY is mostly the same as gambling. Unless there's a good feel that the company is going to miss there's little catalist on the downside. SIRI is gaining marketshare and BBY is going to ride gadged/TV/Games upgrade cycle. Unless you know of a reliable way to spot an overbought condition and it's a very short term momentum trade - I don't know if there is a good way to trade this.
For me to be a good short candidate the company has to be either a fundamental train wreck or be really overbought with slowing growth (then technicals can be used to justify the entry) - or the whole industry is coming down like a rock (like oil). Then in my view it's still best to pick up the weakest player or short the index or the commodity itself.
What was the rationale (technical or otherwise) to short SIRI?
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The rationale to short SIRI was easy. It has been, and STILL IS IN A DOWNTREND SINCE Dec 12th. It remains in its downward trading channel.
BBY also broke its main trend in December. I got stopped out at 50.50. I shorted at 49.84. The ratiional to short this stock was that it has had plenty of time to reach a new high and it hasn't done so. We have already seen it's 4th quarter results and they did not meet expectations and this is always their best quarter. The stock only went up because it raised guidance the other day. I bet it will still drop below my 49.84 entry point in the next 30-45 days.
Bascially you always have to figure market trend before going long or short. The market trend certainly favors shorts as I have made more money so far this year shorting stocks than my mutual funds have made from the long side, and I have significantly more money in mutual funds than I do in stocks.
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I almost got stopped out on this SIRI short but didn't. Now it's back down moving quickly on some news. MT-predictor says this stock will go to a minimum of 4.35. If it does it will be a nice 4000 profit.
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